OUTLAW PETER 12.40 Exeter at 8/11

Betway Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) 2m5f137y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 13-36 for 36%         (10) 
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10)                              
OR & RPR: 130 & 137                 (10)  
Distance: 2m4f+                     (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden                (10) 
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 25%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Sporting Ace
Alt: Times Are Blue

  Second in Grade 2 Persian War, now runs in Class 3

Outlaw Peter was a bumper winner who has opened his account over hurdles and then produced a cracking effort when second in the Persian War at Chepstow last month when just beaten after looking all over the winner! A repeat of that effort would be enough to win this Class 3, he has been given 28 days to recover from that run and would probably have needed that. He jumped high over the early hurdles but warmed to the task throughout the race. 

Take all the beating - Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls told us via Betfair: "He showed the benefit of a wind op by hacking up in a maiden at Kempton in May. He showed notable improvement when a pleasing second in the Grade 2 Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow early last month where he just blew up going to the final flight. He's a really nice horse, seems to have sharpened up and should take all the beating under a 6lbs penalty."

The trainer confirmed his best chance of a winner on Friday was Outlaw Peter!

Trainer & Jockey Form

The trainer has a national average of 24%, is 24% at the course, has won 2 of the last 4 runnings and 3 of the last 10, and is currently in fantastic form. His last 14 days shows him 13-36 for 36%. Harry Cobden rides and his all-time combination with Nicholls show 421-1698 for 25% and 3% above his national average of 22%. It is always strange what our Racecourse Templates reveal, and we note Cobden scored 0-15 for 0% (-15.00) at Exeter over hurdles last season, winning just £6,948 in prize money. Not sure how that happened but we have set those numbers aside.

Contenders

Sporting Ace got off the mark in bumpers at the second attempt and jumped superbly when landing a novice hurdle at Warwick 6 months ago. He is open to a good deal of improvement and is respected back in trip on his return. Might just be a run short. He has plenty to find but the 4yo Times Are Blue could reach third place. He overcame inexperience to make a winning debut in a bumper, then made a solid start to hurdling when runner-up at Hereford 24 days ago.

 Timeform

  OUTLAW PETER showed form bordering on useful when second in the Persian War at Chepstow and a repeat performance should be enough to take this acknowledging that Sporting Ace made an impressive start to his hurdling career at Warwick 6 months ago. Siruh du Lac could pose a threat if he's fully tuned up.

Value

The intention was to nick a bit of 4/5 about this Pacafi - he is currently trading at 8/11 which probably looks about right. So, on this occasion we are not sure we have perceived value though his winning chance is obvious!

Second Pacafi?

We are considering staking the Philip Hobbs trained Thyme Hill 2.25. He is currently available at 1/2 and that could be real value, if he eases much more, we will have to wager even though we recognise the trainer is not in great form currently!

Absolute Sadness!

In absolute shock and sadness regarding the 2.55 Sedgefield. We had been out of the office until 3.50pm and was just about to watch our two Pacafi's run using the replays but was accidentally alerted by my wife to what had happened! To find both Thermusa and Sweet Auburn had been fatally injured in that 5-runner race shook us both to the core. We have not watched the race nor will we. Racing was then abandoned at Sedgefield and the track's next meeting on 10 November has been cancelled to allow a thorough investigation of the racing surface.

We hope to put this incident behind us but struggling at the moment and not because we incurred a -2pt loss - we will get that back!

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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