‘Chaos is a Friend of Mine’ is a Bob Dylan quote from a famous interview with Nora Ephron that he gave in 1965.  Dylan’s view was that chaos existed and all we could do was accept and acknowledge its presence. The Racing Horse totally agrees with this view but when it comes to betting, we must remove chaos from the equation (amongst many other things) and replace it with mathematics!

There are 60 licensed racecourses in Great Britain, not two of them are alike. With the exception of Chelmsford and Ffos Las all the courses date back to 1927 or earlier maturating their own characteristics, shape, size, cambers, gradients, undulations, right and left-hand travel (including ambidexterity), altitude and various surface-types. No other country in the racing world has our course diversity, but has this feature been truly factored/translated into our betting decisions?

We would suggest not, personal experience confirms a serious lack of learning in this regard even amongst seasoned pundits. Let's face it, winning or losing in professional sport often comes down to the smallest of margins - a winning or losing bet is repeatedly determined by those small margins. Bettors tend to focus on the form of the horse, trainer, jockey and the price, mistakenly there is scant consideration for the the course title. If accepting the opening premise we must classify the course or their inherent nature into a help or hinder category, if the course negatively impacts upon our wagering, we stand down and wait for another opportunity.

For example, a small nimble speedy juvenile suited to a fast 5f has two entries, one at Beverley and the other at Catterick - which race gives the best percentage chance of success? Forget opinions, mathematics and common sense gives us the answer. The Beverley 5f is uphill all the way and takes a lot of getting particularly if the word soft is in the going title. In total contrast, the Catterick 5f is downhill all the way but with an extreme downhill first furlong, clearly enabling the small nimble type and not the large galloping sort. These two courses could not be more different, but how many of us actually know that?

The configuration of a racecourse should be a consideration before wagering. Every racehorse that has ever been born has its own optimum conditions that have been genetically predetermined, our job is to marry a bet to the racecourse and surface whenever possible, failing that, we seek conditions to suit.

To hone our betting we set up a composite antechamber. It is quick and easy to produce and even a novice could produce one in less than 5 minutes.

What are NATIONAL AVERAGES?

Here is a recent example, regarding Royalty Bay trained by John & Sean Quinn and ridden by Jason Hart on 12 July 2023 at York. She was a winning Pacafi largely based on the composite figures below:

National Average: 10%               (10)
Trainer Form: 2-4 for 50%           (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%               (9)?
OR & RPR: 91 & 91                   (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft?       (10)?     
Optimum Distance: 6f+               (10)
Jockey: Jason Hart                  (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%              (10)?           
Trainer & Jockey combo: 13%         (10)
Total:                              (99)

Please note 10 critical features largely satisfied though 3 elements needed a deeper examination. Each feature receives different weighting and always used in a relative, contextual and pertaining sense, and each of the above is factual, largely devoid of opinion, randomness or bias! Regarding different weighting, the suggestion is trainer form is obviously more important than a jockey national average for example. The class of the horse is more important than the course strike of a jockey etc...

So how were the scores for the run of Royalty Bay measured?

The Racing Horse believes trainer form is the cornerstone of any wager and critical for a positive performance. John & Sean Quinn officially became joint trainers in February 2024 and within that timeline recorded a national average of 10%. A day prior to nominating the Pacafi we noted the stable had won with 2 of their last 4 runners, heavily suggesting their horses able to run positively given that mathematical angle.

The course form figure received a question mark against it because we did not have a sample size to report for the new pairing, so the 9% for John Quinn senior was incorporated into the chamber. There are strong 9% strike rates and weaker 9% strike rates. On this occasion the strike rate was deemed to be strong given the trainer recording a high ratio of second (41), third (32) and fourth (37) places and total prize money of £1,470,843. His next best total was Ascot winning £839,812.

After measuring the trainer we look at the class of the horse before seeking its optimums or preferences over ground and trip.

Royalty Bay came into the race with an Official Rating of 91 and also a Racing Post Rating of 91, the highest ratings of any horse in this particular race.

Royalty Bay won her debut at Ripon on soft ground convincingly before running in the Albany Group 3 at Royal Ascot on good to firm ground and performing creditably. With such little information available we could not be certain what optimum ground for the filly was at this stage, her racing gait (probably) told us it was not soft, but we could not know that for sure at that time. Her sire Kodiac was a good to firm ground horse with 0 wins on anything softer than good, her dam Dubai Rainbow raced 14 times and never raced on soft ground winning both her races on the Dundalk AW surface. It appears from a breeding perspective optimum ground will not (ultimately) be on soft ground, though our file now tells us she handles it.

She went on to win the Novice Fillies' Class 2 at York on good to soft ground which probably proves the above.

Her 2 wins have been over 6f and for now this looks her optimum trip, though her running style suggests 7f is within her reach. Kodiac was an out and out 6f horse but her dam stayed a 1m.

Jason Hart was the designated jockey and he has a national average of 12% but only scored 7% for a -4% figure at York, so surely he has to be marked down from a top score of 10. Not so, of all the racecourses in the UK, the jockey has recorded his very best moments at this course!  His all-time record at York shows 22-271 for 8% (-24.45) but responsible for £1,458,730 in prize money, this amount is nearly £600,000 clear of his 102 Newcastle winners proving the depth of those winners. At York, he has also recorded 21 second places, 19 third places and 22 fourth places adding to the depth comment.

Seeking further context to the above, Danny Tudhope is top jockey at York over the past 5 years scoring 29-241 for 12% (-55.98) so -4% on his national average. Ryan Moore is 15% here so -3% , Jim Crowley 15% so -3%, and William Buick 14% so -9%, only Tom Marquand 16% of our top jockeys at the course betters his national average here which is 15%. The point we are making apart from context, is how hard it is to win races at York hence our mark of 10 for jockey Jason Hart's course form.

The trainer and jockey combination is measured against John Quinn's figure and not John & Sean's figures because of sample size and the 13% combination figure is above the national average of the trainer (+3%) and jockey (+1%).

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

The Racing Horse became sports betting profitable but only once we accepted mathematics as being the governing force of horse racing betting. Producing a framework or composite antechamber from which to work has not been restricting, quite the opposite, it helps remove negative influences from a wager and who wants those? From here we are at liberty to seek the elusive perceived value!

***