After being sacked by The Racing Horse members, we decided to clear our desk. In the process of dusting off and removing cobwebs, we stumbled upon some intriguing writings from many years past. Upon discovering this piece, we realized we had forgotten the meaning of a tetrad.

But first, what exactly is a Pacafi? The word Pacafi is an acronym for professional-calculated-filtered-investment and the cornerstone of The Racing Horse. The bet is a simple, well-constructed investment that integrates a set of predetermined rules. The bet contains essential components in which the fundamentals never change, and with little room for ambiguity, is easy to apply. These truisms filter negative influences that hinder a horse's performance.

The tetrad is neither new nor rocket science but uses the building blocks of the professional gambler. This raison d’être has stood the test of time and there is no reason for it not to do so in the future.

Importantly, we acknowledge 98% of those who bet over the medium to long-term lose, but this strategy represents the closest thing to no risk betting we know of, it is impossible to lose a set aside bank. We readily accept the incremental nature of profit is not deemed sexy and suits less than 10% of betting folk. We make no effort to sell it with no advertising, in fact all members reading this blog have found us, we have not sought them.

Those nominated are not a tip, but represents our personal wagers. Each one is accompanied by an essential and common sense rationale. If the rationale is weak or an untrue representation of the mathematical facts, or just plain wrong, it will be cruelly exposed to all and sundry! Whilst we may get things wrong we do not want to be called a fool!

To confirm, The Racing Horse does not tip - it offers pertinent, contextual and relevant betting advice largely based on mathematical factuality. We take this opportunity to reaffirm the tetrad in order of importance:

1: TRAINER FORM

2: REQUISITE CLASS

3: OPTIMUM GROUND CONDITIONS

4: JOCKEY COMPETENCE

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting, with this in mind it must be reasonable to acknowledge then accept current trainer statistics and the mathematics that accompany them.

In a general sense, good trainer form is a decisive and indicative test confirming the well-being of the stable’s horses, suggesting a readiness to run positively. Conversely, and assuming one does not have specific inside information which may contain an edge, backing an out of form trainer must be considered negative action!

Of course, there are times when a trainer's horses are returning to form, but without winning, so his/her 5-6-7-8% strike rate mean they can fly under the radar, at least as far as most punters are concerned. On those occasions we might get involved as long as there is perceived value attached. This is not a contradiction to the views expressed above. VALUE IS EVERYTHING IN BETTING, or at least perceived value is, because no human being can say for sure what real/exact value is at any given time, not even a bookmaker!

There are any amount of random factors that can affect a result and it takes small margins to win most races. These issues are more likely to be compounded if the horse is not fully tuned or prepared! Furthermore, if one accepts that handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meetings, a few pounds of improvement or decay can mean the difference between winning and finishing down the field.

Each horse has a potential ability level, whether they achieve that is another matter. The better the horse is trained and looked after, the more likely it is to achieve, but it is accepted that genetics, skeletal and muscular soundness are factors outside the trainer’s remit. Finding the bandwidth to which each horse can aspire needs the trainer to be totally in tune with his charge and, whilst some achieve, most fail in this regard. Based on this incongruity we only trust recent form and trainer's of a certain quality.

Getting involved with low quality trainers is not an option for us, we do not need their mediocrity, low skill-sets and unreliability to impact on our betting. Emotionally we are averse to lengthy losing runs, and our demand is for a high strike rate albeit at shorter prices! As a consequence, we tend (not always), to put a line through Class 5 and 6 Handicaps where they largely reside.

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Generally, the classification system in horse racing is designed to ensure fair competition. Defining requisite class is a nuanced task so not always easy to master. Class determines at what level horses can realistically win, being able to estimate the exact class and optimum conditions for a racehorse constitutes an edge, and especially in regards to those developing and improving 2yo & 3yos. This is still not enough unless the horse is primed and ready. Whilst we are primarily interested in horses winning on a particular day in a particular race, we look for those going forward or improving if and when possible.

Our preferred options on the Flat is backing 3yos in Maidens and Novices (non-handicap races). Our Racecourse Template data prove this is the best 'bandwidth frequency' for our style of betting. We readily accept this information is known by bookmakers and most of the time their prices reflect the fact, most of the time but not always...

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The Racing Horse had the privilege of spending the day with Monty Roberts, known as 'The Horse Whisperer,' and a legend in the horse training world, who shared some of his extensive knowledge with us. He emphasised the critical nature of ground conditions, noting that every horse that has ever been born, alive now or in the future, will predetermined optimal conditions for ground and racing. It is the responsibility of the bettor to discover these conditions, if possible, before placing a wager.

Some racing people including trainers, foolishly say good horses go on any ground – they do not, some are more versatile than others, some just handle it better or have something in hand of their rivals - it is not the same thing!

A problem for systems is they are unlikely to recognise/weigh/measure optimum or deteriorating conditions against the class the horses are racing in! Lots of bets are lost before the race has even started!

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Let's suppose our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance looks obvious, why would anyone compromise the bet once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling/training? Trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available! They might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted, rides work or a favoured son. The owner might have input, or the decision might be political. But the bettor has no such restrictions.

It is impossible to measure or be scientific about the importance of jockeyship, but they are the trainer’s connection/conduit to the horse and it is often their split-second decisions that ultimately dictate the result and our profit and loss.

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The tetrad listed (probably) represent 90%+ in importance towards a winning bet. Of course human error, stable shenanigans, course configuration, draw and track bias, pace in the race, distance, weight, breeding and more, can influence the result, but the big four represents a core and serious starting point to any bet we wager. This is where we part with most systems and strategies!