The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 2 October 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 6 Handicap Races a Conditions Stakes Race a Novice Race and a Maiden Fillies' Race. From next Wednesday there are 4 meetings at the course over a period of 8 days. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   117-299	39%   -47.58   40-111	 36%    -0.81
3yo   148-298	50%    -9.82   157-485	 32%   -42.88
4yo+   46-107	43%    -4.71   254-797	 32%   -70.07
TOTAL 311-704	44%   -62.11   451-1393  32%  -113.76

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  88-541   16%    -9.68   +1%   2
Charlie Appleby (29%) 72-212   34%   -36.60   +5%   0
Roger Varian (20%)    63-267   24%   -34.32   +4%   1
Richard Hannon (11%)  51-470   11%  -118.25   +0%   2
J & T Gosden (21%)    48-255   19%   -73.35   -2%   3
 
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)   93-480   19%    -86.04   +0%   7
David Probert (12%)  93-775   12%    -52.28   +0%   5
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 82-615   13%   -119.54   +0%   2
William Buick (23%)  78-328   24%    -75.30   +1%   0
Hollie Doyle (15%)   77-563   14%   -131.09   -1%   3 

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	    101-362   28%   -80.27    +3%   0
King Power (13%)     25-131   19%   -28.31    +6%   0
Juddmonte (23%)      20-69    29%    -2.44    +6%   0
Shadwell Est (23%)   20-76    26%    +2.88    +3%   2
Opulence Thoro (18%) 16-58    28%    +3.85   +10%   2

Upcoming Fixtures:									
Wednesday 9 October 2024
Friday 11 October 2024		
Monday 14 October 2024		
Wednesday 16 October 2024

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template provides a huge sample giving the figures real weight and substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 762-2097 for 36.34% and a level stake loss of -175.87, so +3% of the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a significant 12% differential.

• Best category are 3yo favs in non-handicaps 148-298 for 50% (-9.82)
• Worst category are 4yo favs in handicaps 254-797 for 32% (-70.07)
• Best versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 18%.
• Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicaps score at a big 50% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration. The strike rate of 50% over the past 5 years is being replicated again this current year showing 32-64 for 50% (-0.86), so a constant and something to work from!
• First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.96%.
• Andrew Balding (15%) is leading trainer at Kempton with 88 winners, but it is Charlie Appleby (29%) and his 34% strike rate (+5%) that catches the eye!
• Oisin Murphy (19%) and David Probert (12%) are joint-leading jockeys scoring 93 winners each
• Godolphin (25%) are the leading owners at the course by some distance, scoring at 28% (+3%) and 76 winners more than next best over the past 5 years. Juddmonte (23%) score at 29% (+6%) whilst Opulence Thoroughbreads (18%) score at 28% (+10%)

TRAINERS: Andrew Balding (15%) has 2 runners and a chance of a winner in GALLANT 4.35. He attracted support on his Salisbury debut 7 weeks ago (6f, good to firm; hooded) but was too green to do himself justice, the hood comes off and a tongue tie added, with stall 4 to help, he looks place material at least. Oisin Murphy rides.

Roger Varian (20%) remains in the doldrums and now desperate for a couple of winners back to back! A review of his August and September results presents a rather dismal picture and especially when we measure them against his national average!

September: 5-48   10%   -29.96
August:    6-69    9%   -43.48
Total:    11-117   9%   -73.44

It's likely that he will recover to some extent eventually and we are on filter and follow duty! TRH had backed JOWDDAH 2.00 Nottingham today as a Pacafi but the meeting has been lost because of standing water on the track. One imagines this filly will be placed to win next time out and that could be at Yarmouth on Monday, so we are on notice!

JOCKEYS: The 2 top jockeys at the course have 12 rides between them. Oisin Murphy (19%) has 7 rides including FAIFA 4.00, GALLANT 4.35, RESPECTFUL 5.10, WILLEM TWEE 5.45, LOUIS QUARTORZE 6.20, NATIVE KING 6.55 & CLASSIC SPEED 8.00 and a winner beckons.

David Probert (12%) has 5 rides, though hard to see him riding a place chance yet alone a winner, from LADY CARO 4.00,  ROCKIT TOMMY 6.20, DOUBLE TIME 6.55, LESSAY 7.30 & THIS TIME MAYBE 8.00

OWNERS: Shadwell Estate (23%) have 2 runners including EBEN ZAABEEL 6.20 & ROWAYEH 6.55. The first is trained by Charles Hill and the second is trained by 0wen Burrows, both to be ridden by Jim Crowley.

Opulence Thoroughbreds (18%) also have 2 entries in JUNGLE MAC 6.55 & DEVOIRS CHOICE 7.30 trained by Jack Channon and Ed Walker and to be ridden by Ed Greatrex and Tom Marquand respectively.

RED FLAG: The practice of trainers running multiple horses in the same race for different owners is controversial and some believe it should be prohibited. TRH had shares in horses involved in such situations, which I found quite distasteful. Today, John Gosden has three entries in the 4.00 Maiden Fillies' Race in FAIFA (15/8), SEA JOURNEY (4/1), and JANE TEMPLE (12/1). It seems probable that one of his horses will win. Each of these 3yo fillies are owned by big owners who will want them to break their maiden tag early for breeding purposes down the line, so two of the owners will be disappointed today. Surely there are other races to place them in?