The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday, 13 August 2025. There is a 6-race card containing 4 Handicaps and 2 Novice Stakes Races. The Polytrack surface is forecast to ride standard to slow

Winning Favourites (5 Years) 
Non-handicap                    Handicap 
2yo   106-268  40%   -39.36     38-91    42%   +11.04 
3yo   145-294  49%   -18.73     154-458  34%   -29.95 
4yo+   43-97   44%    -3.00     240-747  32%   -60.99 
TOTAL 294-659  45%   -61.09     432-1296 33%   -70.91

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (16%)  85-539   16%   -57.97   +0%   3   
Charlie Appleby (30%) 67-210   32%   -42.78   +2%   0   
Roger Varian (20%)    64-250   26%   -23.70   +6%   2  
J & T Gosden (21%)    61-305   20%   -74.07   -1%   4 
Ralph Beckett (18%)   48-262   18%   -32.22   +0%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (21%)  104-470    22%   -80.63   +1%   6 
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 93-616    15%  -157.17   +2%   5    
David Probert (13%)  85-672    13%    -3.57   +0%   0     
Rossa Ryan (16%)     73-495    15%   -68.02   -1%   0   
R Kingscote (13%)    72-530    14%  -110.03   +1%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (26%)	     90-326    28%   -81.00   +2%   2  
Juddmonte (23%)      22-83     27%   -19.65   +4%   1
Shadwell Est (22%)   22-88     25%    -0.11   +3%   1
King Power (13%)     20-112    18%   -28.27   +5%   0
Opulence Thoro (19%) 18-65     28%    +5.10   +9%   1

Upcoming Fixtures:
Tuesday 19 August 2025
Wednesday 20 August 2025
Wednesday 27 August 2025

CONFIGURATION & DRAW: Kempton is a right-handed, flat Polytrack course, uniquely the only all-weather surface in the UK with a right-handed configuration. The track is oval-shaped and features two distinct loops:

• Inner Circuit: Used for races over 5f and 10f, this loop is notably sharp, with a finishing straight just shy of 2f. It strongly favours speedy, handy types, especially over the minimum trip, where early positioning is critical.
• Outer Circuit: Employed for distances from 6 to 8f, this loop offers a more sweeping turn and a longer straight of approximately 3f, providing a fairer test of stamina and tactical speed.
• The run to the first bend over 5f and 6f is relatively short, placing a premium on early pace and draw position.
• A consistent trend across all distances shows that front-runners outperform their rivals, making early tactical advantage a key factor in race outcomes.

Distance  Favoured  Bias       Tactical Note
5f  In    9-12      Strong     Early speed crucial
6f  Out   1-4       Strong     Front runners low draw dominate 
7f  Out   Low-mid   Moderate   Tactical speed helps
1m  Out   1-5       Mild       Positioning matters
9f  Out   Low       Strong     Front and prominent outperform
10f Out   1-4       Strong     Wide draws need to get position

Bias strength is contextual—field size, pace setup, and jockey tactics can amplify or reduce its impact, so it’s not just about stall numbers, it’s about how they interact with race distance, circuit layout, and running style.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template provides a huge sample giving the figures real weight and substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 726-1955 for 36.15% and a level stake loss of -132.00, so +3% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 45% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a significant 13% differential.

• Best category are 3yo favs in non-handicaps 145-294 for 49% (-18.73)
• Worst category are 4yo favs in handicaps 240-747 for 32% (-60.99)
• Best versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 17%.
• Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicap score at a big 49% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration.
• First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.96% of the races.
• Winning favourites in non-handicap races this year show 33-65 for 51% (-5.60).

TRAINER:

HOT TRAINERS                                           E
Owen Burrows (00%)     9-19  for 47%  (+32.98)         1
Saeed bin Suroor (21%) 2-6   for 33%   (+0.00)         1
William Haggas (23%)   30-96 for 31%   (-3.00)         1
J & T Gosden (21%)     17-68 for 25%   (+3.42)         4
Mark Prescott (18%)    10-45 for 22%  (+20.44)         2

COLD TRAINERS:

Sean Woods (12%)   0-35  41 days                       1
Alice Haynes (11%) 0-28  12 days                       1

JOCKEY: Oisin Murphy (21%) has 6 rides including MANEUVER 6.15, MISS HERSCHEL 6.45, RED MIRAGE 7.15, KING OF FURY 7.45, DUBAWI TIME 8.15 & TRIPLE GEE 8.45. Stop at a winner?

Danny Muscutt (13%) is of interest with 5 rides that include MAYFAIR MARKET 6.15, NIBRAS ANGEL 7.15, LOCH LEVEN 7.45, ARTAVIAN 8.15 & ENVIRONMENT AMIGO 8.45

James Doyle (18%) is currently 0-22 and has just the one ride tomorrow in PEARLA 6.45 for William Haggas and Wathnan Racing. The 8/13 looks a little too short for us though a winning chance beckons!

OWNER: For this meeting 4 of the 5 top owners have 5 runners between them, our advice is to always process this feature...

RED FLAG: SYNERGISM 8.45 at evens looks to have a great chance of following up his win over C&D last week with Luke Morris riding! The 3yo has a progressive profile and won by 4l last time out, and he remains well-in despite the penalty. Sir Mark Prescott has his horses in excellent form currently showing 4-13 for 30.77% and the figures include a 28/1 winner and 4 second places. The trainer is having a great 2025 so far scoring 37-157 for 20% so significantly above his national average. Included in those figures are 32 second places. This might be our first bet with a Prescott runner at on the Kempton AW surface given he scores just 8-111 for 7% over the last 5 years, but the course and distance win last week puts these fears to bed.

If there was a negative it might be a lack of pace, so it could be a tactical race, but trainer and the astute jockey will have that covered. Had we priced up the Prescott runner, we would have him something closer to 4/5 so the evens and bigger looks perceived value! Environment Amigo looks the only danger, but has to give our wager 15lbs and that looks a big ask given the form line.

6.15: Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f

• MAYFAIR MARKET (S Woods) drops from Class 3 to Class 5,  fair ability on debut in decent novice, winner of which narrowly failed in Group company next time. Needed the experience and place at least. Danny Muscutt rides 3rd at 6/1
• MANEUVER (J & T Gosden) costly purchase 600,000gns as yearling is just preferred ahead of stablemate Izz'nt She Hot. 107 of Sea The Stars progeny have won on debut. Trainer +£13.82 with debutants, Oisin Murphy rides 2nd at 4/6
• PACIFIC MISSION (A Balding) Lope De Vega filly who was very green on debut, upped to 7f with tongue tie. Drops from Class 3 to Class 5, William Carver rides WINNER at 11/2
• Ex: £14.90 CSF: £10.91 Trifecta: £53

6.45: Unibet/Breeders Backing Racing EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m4f

• MISS HERSCHEL (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, Oisin Murphy rides
• EL MEGEETH (O Burrows) hot trainer, form of her debut 4th at this course (11f) working out well with improvement expected, Jim Crowley rides 2nd at 5/1
• PEARLA (W Haggas) she is bred to stay and improve with time, steps up in trip with form franked, when split a pair of subsequent Listed winners, been given a break. Trainer won this race last year, James Doyle rides and 23% at course WINNER at 4/9
• Ex: £4.59 CSF: £4.09

7.15: Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap (Class 4) 7f

• AL KHWSSAA (R Varian)  fancied over C&D in May, first-time hood. Unexposed and if headgear works a winning chance, trainer 26% at the track, now significant jockey booking as Silvestre De Sousa rides 2nd at 6/1
• RED MIRAGE (J & S Quinn) C&D winner, won last time out, This 7yo rated higher in the past and now in form, Oisin Murphy rides 3rd at 10/1
• BILLY MILL (R Millman) C&D winner, weighted to win 78 > 70, George Wood rides

7.45: Unibet Zero% Mission Handicap (Class 4) 1m

• A WAR EAGLE (E Bethel) beaten favourite last time out, long traveller 245-miles, Callum Rodriguez rides 2nd at 7/2
• MAYBE NOT (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, trainer string in great nick. Ed Greatrex rides WINNER at 4/1
• KING OF FURY (M Dods) long traveller 264-miles, trainer +£17.03 when one runner at a meeting, Oisin Murphy rides
• Ex: £18.70 CSF: £18.87

8.15: Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap (Class 5) 1m4f

• NIVELLE'S MAGIC (D Horsford) beaten favourite last time out, 2 from 5 this year. Jack Mitchell rides 3rd at 7/1
• DAMASCUS STEEL (E Dunlop) C&D winner, weighted to win 75 > 70, won this race last trainer and trainer has won the last 2 runnings. Silvestre De Sousa rides
• DUBAWI TIME (W Knight) C&D winner, trainer +£24.81 when one runner at a meeting, Oisin Murphy rides

8.45: Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (Class 4) 2m

• SYNERGISM (M Prescott) 3-6 this year, winner in the last 7 days, carries penalty. Luke Morris rides WINNER at 5/6
• ENVIRONMENT AMIGO (J Fanshawe) Signed off 2024 in perfect fashion when successful at Southwell (16.5f). Respectable 4 of 8 in Newcastle handicap (12.4f) 18 days ago. Back up in trip promises to suit. Danny Muscutt rides 2nd at 8/1
• GOLDEN RULES (T Faulkner) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer +£32.50 when one runner at a meeting. Rob Havlin rides
• Ex: £6.10 CSF: £8.38