The Racing Horse takes this opportunity to remind readers of some big strike rates unlikely to suffer fatigue going forward. The sample size is big and has kept the same shape for many years. After producing a Racecourse Template it is our first port of call for our thought processes, and one we use to our advantage more times than not.

Before you read any further, a quick heads-up: if you don’t believe that mathematics and probability are the driving forces behind successful horse racing betting, this blog might not be for you. But if you’re open to the idea that numbers reveal patterns, and patterns reveal opportunity, then you’re in exactly the right place.

There are 6 all-weather racecourses in the UK, each equipped with synthetic surfaces that allow racing to continue year-round, regardless of weather conditions. On this occasion, we look closely at 4 of them, including Kempton (Polytrack), Lingfield (Polytrack), Wolverhampton (Tapeta) & Southwell (Tapeta).

We now share a simplified set of figures over a 5-years time-line, garnished from a huge sample and ask the reader to contemplate them:

3yo WINNING FAVOURITES in AW NON-HANDICAPS
KEMPTON:       148-296   50%   -17.71
LINGFIELD:     119-226   53%   +10.47
WOLVERHAMPTON: 168-335   50%   -11.45
SOUTHWELL:     114-227   50%    +1.37
TOTAL:        549-1084   51%   -17.32

A 51% win rate for favourites is strong, especially in non-handicaps where class, form or expectancy tend to dominate. Market confidence is usually justified. Backing the favourites blindly in those 1084 races, would have produced a loss of just -17.32, which more than suggests a modicum of filtration will produce a profit! Remember, these figures are to SP and not best prices. The Racing Horse makes a profit from this grouping by searching, then securing overlay on Betfair.

A serious bettor with discipline (and not a professional), should easily score a strike rate in excess of 58%, when a strike rate of 52% would show a profit even to SP. Following this strategy means there is absolutely no risk to the betting bank!

4yo WINNING FAVOURITES in AW NON-HANDICAPS
KEMPTON:       43-99     43%    -3.00
LINGFIELD:     69-141    49%   +15.90
WOLVERHAMPTON: 77-194    40%    -1.86
SOUTHWELL:     58-136    43%    -1.02
TOTAL:         247-570   43%   +10.02

On a personal note, we always employ four filters to any wager, they are: class requirement, trainer form, jockey competence and draw. How high one sets the bar determines how many wagers there are.

Whilst we use a percentage of the bank staking as a base figure, we can, and do increase stakes, if confidence and perceived value are high.

Of course, members do not have to act on the figures in a literal sense, but these numbers must be factored into the betting thought processes, if and when getting involved at these courses. By the way, Chelmsford and Newcastle are tracks not conducive to profit, historically our figures at those courses are below our standard.

For the record, Chelmsford 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps show 74-174 for 43% (-28.72), whilst Newcastle 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps score 116-241 for 48% (-27.25). 

It is worth repeating, that all figures shown above are blind figures with absolutely no filtration.

Throughout the autumn and winter we will be gearing up for another season of focused, data-driven insight, providing AW Racecourse Templates on a weekly basis, offering readers a structured and reliable guide to navigating the complexities of AW racing.

We warmly invite our readers, both seasoned and new, to join us on this journey. Whether you're refining your approach or just beginning to explore the value of racecourse profiling, our templates will provide clarity and direction.

TRH will also be heavily involved with national hunt racing at Chepstow again this year and will continue to provide insightful information at a course we know so well...