The topic that endlessly frustrates us in horse racing—almost every single day—is the notion of VALUE, or more accurately, PERCEIVED VALUE. Few concepts in betting are as misunderstood or misused as this one. What never ceases to amaze us is the sheer number of those who work within the industry spreading and regurgitating misinformation, while unsuspecting and gullible punters continue to accept it without question.

The betting public, better known as krill, sits at the bottom of a £16.8 billion gambling food chain, often unaware of the mechanics of advantage and edge. Many don’t even realise that perceived value exists.

Too often, bettors assume a big price equals value. It doesn’t. A genuine 4/9 shot trading at 4/6 is value. A horse at 12/1 that should really be 20/1 is not. A runner at 8/1 with a true perceived value of 5/1 is value. A favourite at 11/8 that should be 7/4 is not. The truth is simple: value is about probability, not price. If the odds offered are longer than the true chance of success, that’s value. If they’re shorter, it isn’t.

Bookmakers may be adept at turning perceived chances into odds, but the process is inherently subjective—no one can truly calculate a horse’s exact winning probability. With experience, however, bettors can identify discrepancies in the prices offered and exploit genuine value.

So a value bet arises when the bettor believes the real odds are shorter than those quoted by the bookmaker. The purest form of this is the single win bet—notice you’ll never see bookmakers promoting win singles, because that’s where value most often lies.

By contrast, betting at Starting Price (SP) is sheer folly. It hands the edge straight back to the bookmaker and disregards the mathematical foundations of betting. To succeed, a bettor must always hunt for the best available prices.

And then there’s the bookmaker’s hidden weapon: the overround. This is the margin built into every market, the sum of implied probabilities across all runners that always exceeds 100%. It’s how bookmakers ensure profit, regardless of the outcome. In our view, only a tiny fraction of bettors truly understand this principle. Without grasping it, you’re not playing by the real rules of the game — and if you don’t know the rules, how can you expect to win?

Gambler Harry Findlay announced that he had backed his horse, Denman, in a minor race at Bangor with odds of about 1/12, resulting in a win of £33,000 from a £360,000 stake. He described it as the easiest money he had ever made and speculated that the horse would be at 1/25 odds if the race were run today.

Possessing multiple bookmaker accounts and a Betfair Exchange account is important when searching for perceived value. However, maintaining these accounts open requires a deft touch from the bettor. We used to trade daily between bookmakers and exchanges to disguise our betting patterns. Unfortunately, most of our accounts have long been closed, or the current ones do not offer the best price guaranteed.

Due to betting restrictions on our accounts, we have inevitably transitioned almost fully to Betfair Exchange, a decision we have reluctantly accepted. On Betfair Exchange, odds are determined by individuals rather than professional bookmakers' odds compilers. This allows one to request a price, offering the chance to place a bet at what one deems to be fair value, and with accurate race analysis, one is likely to get matched frequently. Our reported results reflect the advised prices from bookmakers at specific times, yet our actual monthly profits are consistently 20% to 25% greater.

The term perceived value is preferable to value because absolute certainty about the true value of anything is unattainable on Earth. In racing, all is speculative due to the dynamic interplay between humans and animals competing against others. Each event unfolds in unique circumstances, with no two scenarios ever being exactly alike.

Racecourse Templates – What Are They?