LAST EMPIRE 3.45 Hamilton at 8/11

racingtv.com Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f6y

Pedigree: 70,000gns Y; fifth foal; half-sister to winners Thesme (5f; RPR 109), Daffy Jane (5f-6f inc at 2; 85) and Crazee Diamond (6f AW; 70); dam 5f winner (inc AW at 2; 98), sister to numerous winners up to 1m, including Castelletto (5f Group 3)

Trainer Form: 7-78 for 9%     (9)
RPR: 83                      (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f         (10)
Jockey: Danny Tudhope        (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

LAST EMPIRE (STATISTICS): 

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   1   0   2    82    GF-Hd     0   0   0     0
2019   1   0   1    82    G         0   0   0     0
Dis    1   0   2    82    GS-HVY    1   0   2    82
Crs    1   0   1    82    6-15rnrs  1   0   1    82
Cl5    1   0   1    82    9.1to9.7  0   0   0     0

DANGER: DELACHANCE 2/1

Upgraded course and distance win!

Last Empire is a half-sister to three winners, the best of them the smart sprinter Thesme. It was soft going when Last Empire won over track and trip on last month’s reappearance. But there’s no reason why she shouldn’t handle this faster surface and further progress is expected with winning partner Danny Tudhope staying loyal. We upgraded that win because we are convinced of two things.

Sister from the dam Thesme won three on faster ground

She and the second ran on the worst part of the track at Hamilton last time yet finished 1-2 despite that. It was so noticeable how much they kicked up down the centre of the track. Secondly her gait suggested better ground will be better for her. The sire Pivotal won all his four races on good to firm and the dam won on standard and good to soft but her sire was a good ground horse. Her half sister Thesme has won three races all on good or good to firm and been placed second on those ground conditions four times.

Kevin Ryan and trainer form

The trainer Kevin Ryan told us: Last Empire is a lovely filly but she's been quite weak. Steve Parkin is a great owner, he leaves it to you and outs you under no pressure. He has a big breeding operation and I'm sure black type will be important to her." We recognise the June figures for this trainer shows only 9% but he is not a prolific winning trainer and tends to operate at between 11% and 12%. The standout statistic for this race is Ryan at Hamilton where he recores 98 winners from 490 runners for a big 20% and a level stake profit of +36.89. This is easily his favourite turf track with his highest percentage strike rate. Jockey Danny Tudhope had a choice in this race but rides Last Empire and when they combine they score 3-29 for 11%.

Of her rivals

Delachance relished the quick conditions at Yarmouth and will be hoping to take advantage of the weight concession and is preferred to Carlisle fourth Perfect Charm while Belvelly Boy is related to winners and worth a second with David O’Meara’s yard in good form.

Timeform 

It was an ordinary event LAST EMPIRE won over C&D last month, but she did it in good style and is open to further improvement, so she can follow up in a similarly weak affair. Delachance is the obvious threat.

Value

The 8/11 looks to be on the right side of value given the style of her course and distance win and the consequent upgrade. The trainer has talked of black type and tomorrow she runs in a Class 5 Novice. We are not worried about the ground given the performances of her sister Thesme.

~

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

  1 Last Empire       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

July SELECTIONS: 1  WIN: 1  LOSE: 0  S/R: 100%   PROFIT: +0.72pts

(1)      FINISHED First or Second (100.00%)

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%)