Founded and authored by Paul Moon, this platform reflects a lifelong passion for horse racing and the pursuit of truth in analysis. At just sixteen, I left my home in Bath and journeyed to Australia, drawn by the promises of the Big Brother Movement. With aspirations of becoming a jackaroo and forging a better life, that formative experience shaped both my resilience and my enduring commitment to honest, hard-earned insight.

GIVEN AWAY, DUMPED and FORGOTTEN

Upon arriving in Australia, the reality was starkly different from the promises made. I was placed, without ceremony or support, with a remote farming family whose living conditions were harsh and unforgiving. Situated 10km from Mittagong, roughly 121km southwest of Sydney, the farm offered no meaningful guidance in Australian agricultural practices, nor the mentorship of a “big brother” as assured. Basic necessities such as adequate food, hygiene, and warmth were absent, and I received no compensation for my labor. Isolated and unaccounted for, my location remained unknown to anyone, save for two individuals within the Big Brother Movement’s Sydney office.

EXPERIENCE BORDERED on MADNESS

The experience on the farm quickly descended into emotional chaos. I endured both physical and emotional harm, and as the situation escalated into serious danger at the hands of the owner, I was left with no option but to escape. Unwashed, penniless, and starving, I made my way back to the offices of the Big Brother Movement at Circular Quay in Sydney. There, I confronted the team directly, demanding accountability for their negligence and their failure to safeguard a minor entrusted to their care.

RANDWICK RACECOURSE

None of the promises made by the Big Brother Movement ever materialised. I was never introduced to a mentor to help me navigate the challenges of a new life in Australia. The organisation arranged a job for me at Lowes Department Store in central Sydney, and I found accommodation on Alison Road, near Randwick Racecourse.

It was there, during the quiet hours of early morning, that I first glimpsed racehorses in training. The sight was exhilarating, majestic animals moving with power and grace against the rising sun. In the midst of personal hardship, that moment stirred something profound within me. It lifted my spirits and captured my imagination. I became enamoured with the 'Sport of Kings.'

SPIRITUAL HOME

From that moment on, I rarely missed a race meeting at Sydney’s major tracks, Randwick, Rosehill, Warwick Farm, and Canterbury, and found joy in exploring the provincial circuits. My discovery of Harness Racing at Harold Park added a new dimension to my fascination, expanding my appreciation for the sport’s diversity and depth.

I often worked as a bookie’s runner, a role that sharpened my understanding of odds-making and the mathematics behind betting. It was here I grasped the critical importance of fractions and percentages, tools that could tilt the balance between risk and reward. This early exposure laid the foundation for a lifelong pursuit of precision, strategy, and insight in the world of racing.

TRAINED by LADBROKES

Years later, back in England, I received formal training from Ladbrokes in settling and betting management. At the time, they were a company of great stature, and their instruction was first-class. It was there that I truly honed my numerical acumen and developed a deep understanding of betting systems and settlement procedures.

From that point forward, my mind began to interpret the world through the lens of percentages and probability. Whether analysing form, assessing market movement, or evaluating risk, I found clarity in numbers, a discipline that continues to shape my approach to racing and beyond.

MATHEMATICS & EMOTIONS

Like many gamblers, I’ve known both the exhilaration and despair that betting can bring. Over time, without consciously realising it, my approach evolved into something more mathematical and systematic. My success rate improved markedly when I began applying strict criteria before placing a bet.

Eventually, I managed to shackle the emotional and disciplinary aspects of betting. I use the word 'shackle' deliberately, these forces never truly disappear. They remain ever-present, always poised to resurface. But I came to understand that how one manages the emotional side of betting, when bridled with sound money-management, ultimately determines one’s success.

PREREQUISITES

Through a long and often unforgiving apprenticeship at the school of hard knocks, I came to understand that alcohol, guesswork, and laziness have no place in betting, they are saboteurs, each one capable of undoing even the most promising wager. The correct mindset is not just helpful, it’s essential.

Even a mindset fortified with accurate information, a positive attitude, determination, consistent mathematical processes, and a firm grasp of probability will falter without the foundational pillars of discipline, emotional intelligence, and financial management. Of these, the emotional aspect remains the most elusive, something I continue to learn and refine to this day.

Now, I never place a random bet. I see it as a weakness, a lapse in discipline. Every wager must be justified, deliberate, and aligned with a system that respects both logic and restraint.

THE MEANING of VALUE

Much later in life, I came to understand the true meaning of 'value.' Value could be found in a 4/5 favourite, a 7/2 shot or one at 16/1 shot. It can exist in any price.

While form remains a vital component of analysis, I’ve learned that the 'profile' of a horse, its suitability to a particular race, under optimum conditions, at a specific moment, often carries greater weight.

I focus on one result at a time, seeking clarity in the present rather than speculation about the future.

Because of the random factors that lie beyond any bettor’s control, my mind rarely accepts the concept of ante-post betting. It feels too abstract, too vulnerable to disruption. I prefer precision, immediacy, and the discipline of betting only when the conditions align.

RECORDING BETS

While the focus is always on identifying the next winning bet, maintaining honest and accurate records of past wagers, both wins and losses, is invaluable. These records serve as a personal archive, a road map of where you’ve been and how you’ve evolved. Make no mistake: memory tells lies. That’s why every serious professional keeps meticulous records. focusing on the next winning bet is the primary concern, keeping honest and accurate records of past bets (win and lose) is an invaluable source of information and a road map of where you have been. Make no mistake, memory tells lies and the reason why all professionals keep records.

LAZY, CARELESS and the OVER-ROUND!

Working within the betting industry has exposed me to the careless and uninformed habits of many punters. Far too often, bets are placed without understanding the fundamentals of the game, most don’t even know what an overround is, let alone how it affects their chances of success.

It’s astonishing how many bettors continue to wager with bookmakers who don’t offer Best Odds Guaranteed, missing out on potential value. Even fewer recognise the strategic advantages of using the Betfair Exchange, where prices are often more competitive and the dynamics of backing and laying open up a world of opportunity.

Betting without knowledge is like playing chess without knowing how the pieces move. If you’re serious about winning, you must first understand the rules.

PRIVILEGED to have WRITTEN for BETFAIR

For nearly five years, I had the privilege of writing for Betfair as one of their leading contributors across a range of sporting subjects. The experience was immensely rewarding. It not only opened doors within the racing fraternity but also gave me the confidence to express my insights with clarity and conviction.

Betfair, to their credit, have revolutionised the betting landscape. Their platform has empowered punters with transparency, flexibility, and control, fundamentally changing the way betting is understood and practised. I’m proud to have been part of that evolution.

If anything I’ve shared resonates with you,or if y ou’d like to experience our approach firsthand, I warmly invite you to get in touch. We offer a FREE TRIAL giving you the opportunity to witness our work ethic, analytical depth, and commitment to honest, disciplined betting. you can witness our work ethic.

Many thanks...