POMELO 6.00 Wolverhampton at 10/11

Play Ladbroke 5-A-Side On Football EBF Fillies's Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (2yo) 1m142y

Pedigree

4th foal; half-sister to 7f AW 2yo/1m turf winner Desirous (RPR 93); dam 7f-1m winner (inc at 2/Group 1; 120), sister to 1m2f Gr 3 winner First Sitting and 5f 2yo Listed winner Dancing Diva out of 5f/6.5f winner, is granddaughter of US 8.5f Gr 2 winner

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 11-27 for 41%   (10)
National Average: 17%         (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%       (10)
RPR: 92                       (10)                                            
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard (10)         
Optimum Distance: 1m          (10)
Jockey: Richard Kingscote     (10)
National Average: 15%         (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%       (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 19%   (10)  
Total:                       (100)

Main danger: Romantic Song

Made a big impression on debut

 Pomelo made a big impression when bolting up on her Newbury debut over 7f on good ground in July and looked one that might go to the top. Yes, she was disappointing when last of five in a Group 3 at Goodwood over 7f on soft ground the following month but was given an awful ride when searching for the worst ground on the course and it is likely she did not like soft ground in any case. She is a half-sister to an AW winner and her sire has a 22% strike rate at the course.

Did not come out of third gear

Ralph Beckett told us in July: "Pomelo only started fast work two weeks ago and I wasn't expecting her to come to hand so soon, not least because she's tall and leggy and pretty unfurnished. With a pedigree like she's got, we were always expecting and hoping for something. I won't be in a rush. Harry felt she didn't come out of third gear and we'll see if he's right or not. Something like the Prestige could be next and she'll get a mile next season no problem. I'd say that would be her optimum and if she gets further than that we're in business."

Group 3 to Class 5?

The win at Newbury lives clearly in our memory as she won by 5l, cruising through her race and winning on the bridle starting as the 6/5 favourite. The connections would not hear of defeat prior to the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood even though it was on soft ground, she was smashed into going from 2/1 and better into 5/4 favourite. Worth reminding ourselves she was a very late foal so this beautifully bred filly has been given time to get over that run and this looks a good move with next year in mind. She is tall and leggy so lots of scope for improvement. So, she was a 5/4 favourite for a Group 3 and tomorrow races in a Class 5 Novice Fillies' race at Wolverhampton, the math is there for all to see, we just need a pitch out of the stalls.

Trainer form

It is impossible for trainer Ralph Beckett be in better form, his last 14 days shows 11-27 for 41% measured against his national average of 17%. The trainer and jockey combination augur well also with a strike rate of 19%. The Pacafi does have stall 10 to navigate but we believe Richard Kingscote is one of the very best at exiting them, we anticipate him getting out fast and if not grabbing the rail then taking a close sit. His numbers at Wolverhampton are very impressive recording 234-1502 for 16% and his confidence is currently sky high riding 4 winners from his last 9 rides and 3 of those for Beckett. He has 4 rides at Wolverhampton tonight with a chance of a win double.

Contenders

The Godolphin filly Romantic Song looks to be the main danger but failed to land the odds when only third at Kempton while Jury Pico never threatened when placed at the same track on her debut. But Talbeyah is a half-sister to a Listed winner while fellow newcomer and €200,000 purchase Sea La Rosa is another to keep an eye on.

Timeform

 POMELO wasn't seen in the best light when sent off a short price in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood 3 months ago and remains with potential having looked really good on debut. She can get back on track switched to AW/up in trip here. The dangers could be the newcomers Talbeyah and Sea La Rosa.

The Racing Horse was looking for even money for the Pacafi and certain we will secure that on the exchange. Strange that Romantic Song has been heavily nominated on the Racing Post followed by Talbeyah and both ahead of Pomelo - we think they are wrong to do so! 

In hindsight Beckett should not have run on her on that Goodwood ground, we know she had an entry for the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster (good ground), her 84 days off is not a concern.

By the way, had she been drawn 4 we believe she would be a 4/6 shot. 

Pomelo traded at a low of 1.51 and BSP of 2.32 when losing last time, a race in which she led.

***

17 Pomelo               2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +5.96  S/R 65%
16 Legion Of Honour (S) 2.20  WIN  1.20  +1.00  +4.59  S/R 63%
15 The Glancing Queen   1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +3.59  S/R 60%
14 The Big Breakaway    1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +2.76  S/R 57%
13 Dubai Warrior        1.62  WIN  2.00  +1.24  +1.85  S/R 54%
12 Folk Magic           2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.61  S/R 50%
11 Copinet              2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.61  S/R 55%
10 Protektorat (S)      2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.25  +0.11  S/R 50%
 9 Overpriced Mixer     2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.14  S/R 44%
 8 Imperium (R4)        2.10  WIN  1.00  +0.99  -0.14  S/R 50%
 7 Rifleman             1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  -1.13  S/R 43%
 6 Movin Time           2.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.70  S/R 33%
 5 Esprit Du Large      2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.70  S/R 40%
 4 Terrichang           1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.30  S/R 50%
 3 Allmankind           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.30  S/R 67%
 2 Hello Me   `         2.00  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.20  S/R 50%
 1 Romantic Song        2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

NOVEMBER: 17 WIN: 11  LOSE: 6  S/R 65%  PROFIT: +5.96

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(31143211U11411111) FINISHED First or Second (70.59%)

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