January 19th, 2021
CASTLEBAR 5.30 Wolverhampton at 4/5
E460,000 Y; first foal; dam 8.4f/1m3f winner (RPR 84), sister to 6f 2yo Listed winner Seeharn, half-sister to 7f/7.4f Group 3 winner Yellow Rosebud out of unraced half-sister to 6f Group 1 winner Malhub, is granddaughter of 7f Listed winner
The Racing Horse Composite
Trainer Form: 3-3 for 100% (10) National average: 28% (10) Course Strike Rate: 32% (10) OR & RPR: 84 & 95 (10) Optimum Ground: Standard (10) Optimum Distance: 1m2f (10) Jockey: Andrew Kirby (10) National Average: 15% (10) Course Strike Rate: 17% (10) Trainer & Jockey Combo: 29% (10) Total: (100) Main danger: Book Of Secrets
Expected to improve further now handicapping
Castlebar was a novice winner at Newcastle, and is expected to improve further now handicapping and the Godolphin colt is preferred to the more exposed Book of Secrets who remains the main danger. The Pacafi slowly came to the boil at the back end of last year, finishing off with a cosy victory and this 460,000 euros purchase as a yearling is expected to win with a bit to spare. This looks a really weak race for the grade and if a progressive horse with a RPR of 95 cannot win this race we are all in trouble!
Charlie Appleby is 3-3 for 100% in the last 14 days and 2 of those by today's jockey. The trainer has one of the biggest national averages at 28% and never seems to be out of form. At Wolverhampton he has excellent figures also showing 76-238 for 32% which is much higher than his average and when Adam Kirby combines with his runners they score a big 96-326 for 29% and a level stake profit of +33.04. This is his only UK runner tomorrow though he does have one at Meydan.
460,000euros yearling; first foal of a mare who won at 1m and 1m3f; unplaced on first two starts but much better third time out when second in 10f novice stakes at Lingfield in November 2020; built on that by winning a 10f novice stakes in first-time cheekpieces at Newcastle in December.
Amy Murphy’s charge has been raised 6lb for beating Coupe De Champagne at Lingfield and the latter went on to beat Wholelotafun and Cubano at the same track. Altiste is another handicapping for the first time and steps up in distance.
CASTLEBAR sets the standard after his Newcastle victory and he should be able to defy a mark of 84 on handicap debut. Book of Secrets was successful himself at Lingfield last time and looks to be the main danger. Altiste may have more to offer now she goes handicapping.
The 4/5 secured looks tremendous value and we managed to nibble a little 1.80 on the Betfair Exchange, we would have taken 8/11. We could not get on at 5/6 and not sure if that price was valid from William Hill.
Castlebar traded at a high of 7.20 and BSP of 6.80 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.
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