PACAFI (7 January 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

CASTLEBAR 5.30 Wolverhampton at 4/5

  Ladbrokes Watch Racing Online For Free Handicap (Class 4) 1m1f104y


 E460,000 Y; first foal; dam 8.4f/1m3f winner (RPR 84), sister to 6f 2yo Listed winner Seeharn, half-sister to 7f/7.4f Group 3 winner Yellow Rosebud out of unraced half-sister to 6f Group 1 winner Malhub, is granddaughter of 7f Listed winner

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 3-3 for 100%         (10)
National average: 28%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 32%            (10)
OR & RPR: 84 & 95                  (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard           (10)         
Optimum Distance: 1m2f             (10)
Jockey: Andrew Kirby               (10)
National Average: 15%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 29%        (10)  
Total:                            (100)

Main danger: Book Of Secrets

Expected to improve further now handicapping

Castlebar was a novice winner at Newcastle, and is expected to improve further now handicapping and the Godolphin colt is preferred to the more exposed Book of Secrets who remains the main danger. The Pacafi slowly came to the boil at the back end of last year, finishing off with a cosy victory and this 460,000 euros purchase as a yearling is expected to win with a bit to spare. This looks a really weak race for the grade and if a progressive horse with a RPR of 95 cannot win this race we are all in trouble!

Trainer form

Charlie Appleby is 3-3 for 100% in the last 14 days and 2 of those by today's jockey. The trainer has one of the biggest national averages at 28% and never seems to be out of form. At Wolverhampton he has excellent figures also showing  76-238 for 32% which is much higher than his average and when Adam Kirby combines with his runners they score a big 96-326 for 29% and a level stake profit of +33.04. This is his only UK runner tomorrow though he does have one at Meydan.

Godolphin comments

460,000euros yearling; first foal of a mare who won at 1m and 1m3f; unplaced on first two starts but much better third time out when second in 10f novice stakes at Lingfield in November 2020; built on that by winning a 10f novice stakes in first-time cheekpieces at Newcastle in December.


Amy Murphy’s charge has been raised 6lb for beating Coupe De Champagne at Lingfield and the latter went on to beat Wholelotafun and Cubano at the same track. Altiste is another handicapping for the first time and steps up in distance.


 CASTLEBAR sets the standard after his Newcastle victory and he should be able to defy a mark of 84 on handicap debut. Book of Secrets was successful himself at Lingfield last time and looks to be the main danger. Altiste may have more to offer now she goes handicapping.

 The 4/5 secured looks tremendous value and we managed to nibble a little 1.80 on the Betfair Exchange, we would have taken 8/11. We could not get on at 5/6 and not sure if that price was valid from William Hill.

Castlebar traded at a high of 7.20 and BSP of 6.80 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *