The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Monday 4 September 2023 which includes a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Maiden and a Novice Fillies' Race. The going is expected to be good.
This is the last Flat race of the season before the racecourse proudly stages GUTS, GLORY & GOOD TIMES on Friday 13 & Saturday 14 October - the official start on the UK Racing National Hunt Season.
|
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 23-58 40% -5.95 7-18 39% +3.63
3yo 29-52 56% -1.08 43-114 38% +4.58
4yo+ 2-8 25% +1.00 69-211 33% +2.78
TOTAL 54-118 46% -6.02 119-343 35% +10.99
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
T Carroll (10%) 19-177 11% -17.30 +1% 2
R Millman (12%) 18-124 15% -32.87 +3% 3
J O'Shea (8%) 17-138 12% -32.37 +4% 1
D Evans (11%) 16-150 11% -29.55 +0% 3
R Beckett (18%) 15-48 31% +24.65 +14% 0
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow 2023 +/- E
A Watson (15%) 6-23 26% +22.50 +11% 1
H Morrison (12%) 3-5 60% +17.90 +48% 0
J Flint (7%) 3-7 43% +6.70 +36% 1
R Millman (12%) 3-11 27% -0.75 +15% 3
J S Moore (7%) 3-13 23% +11.50 +16% 1
HOT TRAINERS 05/08/2023 to 03/09/2023 +/- E
W Haggas (23%) 25-100 25% +13.29 +2% 1
O Burrows (21%) 4-16 25% -1.25 +4% 1
M Blake (11%) 4-17 24% +2.50 +13% 1
A West (6%) 6-28 21% -1.00 +15% 1
COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E
S P C Woods (13%) 34 24 days 1
J G O'Shea (8%) 28 54 days 1
G L Moore (12%) 28 19 days 1
E J-Houghton (12%) 22 11 days 1
C Mason (12%) 18 54 days 2
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R
R Ryan (14%) 27-133 20% +23.65 +6% 0
H Doyle (15%) 17-89 19% -18.80 +4% 0
D Probert (11%) 16-170 9% -70.47 -2% 0
G Mangan (10%) 15-91 16% -19.26 +6% 2
R Kingscote (14%) 12-60 20% -23.64 +6% 0
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow 2023 +/- R
H Doyle (15%) 10-30 33% +10.58 +18% 0
B Loughnane (16%) 6-21 29% +22.00 +13% 6
T Fisher (13%) 5-15 33% +19.20 +20% 3
H Crouch (14%) 4-8 50% +16.18 +36% 0
C Bishop (9%) 4-21 19% +7.50 +10% 0
COLD LIST JOCKEY SAW R
W Cox (5%) 53 63 days 2
J Fanning (14%) 30 13 days 3
R Havlin (15%) 30 10 days 2
R Coakley (13%) 24 17 days 1
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
Cross Racing (9%) 7-44 16% -6.62 +7% 0
Tidball Millman (16%) 5-13 38% +10.00 +22% 0
James Llewellyn (16%) 5-15 33% +13.62 +17% 0
Hannah Jones (21%) 4-11 36% +6.50 +15% 1
Int Plywood (17%) 4-12 33% +8.87 +16% 1
Chepstow Fixtures:
Monday 4 September 2023 (LAST FLAT)
Friday 13 October 2023 (NH) Guts, Glory & Good Times
Saturday 14 October 2023 (NH) Guts, Glory & Good Times
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: It is a left-handed, undulating, oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of five furlongs. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground. All races up to a mile are run on the straight course.
FAVOURITES: The sample size at Chepstow is not the biggest so beware a literal translation, but all numbers have value. The course is punter-friendly and a £1 win stake to SP on every race (461 races) produced a profit of +£4.97.
Winning favourites at the course show 173-461 for 37.53% so over 5% above the national average of 32%. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 46% whilst handicap favourites score at 35%. It is very rare for a racecourse to produce a level stake profit in all age-groups of handicap races (+£10.99).
TRAINERS: There are 4 hot trainers each with a single entry and the suggestion is to process the runners of William Haggas (23%) and Owen Burrows (21%) in particular.
JOCKEYS: Billy Loughnane (16%) has 6 rides and looks almost certain to score. His figures at the course show 6-21 for 29% (+22.00) so +13% above his national average. His rides include HELLO ZABEEL 2.10, AZAHARA PALACE 3.20, KING'S GEM 3.55, PORTERINTHEJUNGLE 4.30, SINDRI 5.05 & DUKE OF VIENNA 5.40
OWNERS: Two owners have single entries tomorrow. Hannah Jones (21%) runs MACS DILEMMA 2.10 trained by John O'Shea and ridden by Georgia Dobie (3)
International Plywood (17%) run ATTY'S EDGE 4.30 trained by Christopher Mason and ridden by Gina Mangan (3)
RED FLAG: The Racecourse Templates continually reveal strange (but true) numbers, and this time surprised about the numbers of jockey Joe Fanning (14%). He has been riding as well as ever this year scoring 64-400 for 16% (-0.40) but has fallen below standard just recently. In June, he scored 24 winners but July, August and September show 6-80 for 7½%. This figure is a glitch and an upturn is expected and we intend to profit from the fact! Tomorrow he has 3 rides for trainer Charlie Johnston including HEY LYLA 3.20, MONTEVIDEO 5.05 & FLIGHT OF ANGELS 5.45.
Joe Fanning has not visited Chepstow in the last 5 years and his all-time figures are worse than modest showing just 2-29 for 7%. Currently he is 0-30 over a period of 13 days. Watching him ride this unique course will be of interest to us, and whilst we cannot be confident of him riding a winner this time, we will look closely at his rides plus those following bookings later in the week (subject to change). Those rides include GONE or HI CLAIRE 6.30 Ripon, BLUE ANTARES 7.00 Ripon & ALL DUNN 7.30 Ripon on Tuesday. INDIVIDUALISM 3.30 Haydock or INDIVIDUALISM 6.05 Carlisle. Then ALPEN POWER or PALADIN 3.55 Newcastle. The jockey must be filtered and followed! Finally, Fanning can still make 8st 2lb, how is that possible at his age? Quite remarkable!
MONTEVIDEO 5.05 drops from Class 2 to Class 5 for Charlie Johnston. This 3yo filly is a €52,000 purchase, a half-sister to 4 winners and the highest rated horse in the race, and probably the reason why Joe Fanning has come to Chepstow. We are likely to stake!
PERTINENCE
2.10
IMPERIAL DREAM (M Prescott) beaten favourite last time out, Morgan Cole (5) runs
PAVLODAR (A Ralph) winner in the last 7 days, Harry Davies rides
HELLO ZABEEL (M Blake) formerly with C Fellowes, Billy Loughnane (3) rides
2.45 (Favs: 39%)
SHAWS PHOENIX (B Millman) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, should appreciate step up in trip, Ross Coakley rides
GO YOUR OWN WAY (J S Moore) backed up previous effort when close up 3rd, drop back in trip to help, Taylor Fisher (3) rides
UNLEASH HELL (T Dascombe) trainer +£62.43 when one runner at a meeting, Richard Kingscote rides
3.20 (Favs: 38%)
AZAHARA PALACE (H Morrison) C&D winner, 2-2 at Chepstow on good ground, Billy Loughnane (3) rides
KRACKING (C Cox) beaten favourite last time out, John Fahy rides
3.55 (Favs: 56%)
LAOISMAN (S Woods) trainer 0-34 (24 days) easily top rated and should get off the mark, Rob Havlin rides and he is 0-30 (10 days) but 41% on favourites
SOLRAY (J Chapple-Hyam) displayed promise when 3rd on debut (Laoisman placed 2nd). Must improve and looks the danger, Marco Ghiani rides
4.30
PORTERINTHEJUNGLE (R Brisland) encouraging return from absence when 2nd over C&D, off an unchanged mark, Billy Loughnane (3) rides
ON EDGE (C Mason) beaten favourite last time out, Gina Mangan (3) rides
LOUIS TREIZE (D Faulkner) C&D winner, respectable 6th of 15 in course handicap 11 days ago. In the mix, Laura Coughlan (5) rides
5.05 (Favs: 56%)
MONTEVIDEO (C Johnston) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, best form on offer, Joe Fanning rides and 34% on favourites
SINDRI (M Bell) displayed ability all 3 starts, cheek pieces first time, Billy Loughnane (3) rides
MISTRESS LIGHT (W Haggas) bred to be smart, nothing yet, first time cheek pieces, Cieren Fallon rides
5.40 (Favs: 38%)
DAARREE (O Burrows) trainer +£11.94 when one runner at a meeting, Richard Kingscote rides
ECTOCROSS (S Dow) trainer +£19.77 when one runner at a meeting, Rob Havlin rides
FLIGHT OF ANGELS (C Johnston) solid record in handicaps over this trip, Joe Fanning rides
|
Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home - Jason Weaver
Chepstow Racecourse
Chepstow
Monmouthshire
NP16 6BE
Tel: 01291 622260
Children 17 and under go FREE to the races when accompanied by an adult.
General Admission: see http://www.chepstow-racecourse.co.uk/
How to get there: Road - 1m NW of town on A466 Monmouth Road (M48 (Jctn 2)
Rail -1m Chepstow Station
Parking is FREE
|
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.
|
