PACAFI (Sunday 29 October 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

INTHEWATERSIDE 2.35 Aintree at 4/6bpg

Jewson Birkenhead, Price Street Maiden Hurdle (Class 3) 2m4f


€8,000F, €90,000 3yo; second foal; half-brother to French 2m6f chase winner Gnafron; dam unplaced 2m1f-2m3f chases, half-sister to 1m4f and 13.5f Flat/2m4f chase winner Quirta and 2m4f chase winner Faipassi

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 7-22 for 33%          (10)
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%              (9)
RPR: 135                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)       
Optimum Distance: 2m2f+             (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden                (10)
National Average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)*
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 25%         (10)  
Total:                              (99)

Physically imposing and highly regarded

Inthewaterside is a physically imposing sort who made the perfect start to his career when winning a bumper at Exeter (16.7f, soft) in December, despite looking as though he was very much in need of the experience. Followed up at Sandown 2 months later and he's a fine hurdles prospect with this trip expected to suit. One thing of interest is the Pacafi has won his first two races on right-handed courses and now tackles a left-handed course. We think we know the reason why, read on...

Challow Novices Hurdle looks the target

After his second win at Sandown joint-owner Max McNeill told us: "We certainly won't go to Cheltenham. I will speak to Gary (Stevens, joint-owner) but my view is if Paul said that is it for the season that will do me. Paul said Inthewaterside will be winning races like the Challow Hurdle next season." This tells us quite a bit, the race is in December and a Grade 1 over 2m4f118y at Newbury and the suggestion is this will be his first target, then receive flu injection, then readied again for early 2024. We do not know any of this for sure so please take care.

Nicholls targets this race with his better horses

There's more! Paul Nicholls has won the last 3 Challows with Bravemansgame, Stage Star and Hermes Allen all ridden by Harry Cobden. Today our wager races in a Class 3, so if he is to win his fourth on the trot (5 in total including Denman 2006) his charge will have to win this nicely! Given the above we are certain he is near ready! 

Looks a very smart prospect for Novice hurdles

Paul Nicholls told us: "He is a massive horse, and he took me by surprise when winning on his debut in a bumper at Exeter in December and probably even more so when following up at Sandown in February. He looks a very smart prospect for novice hurdles."

Trainer & Jockey Form

Nicholls has told us he is very happy with the quality of horses he has this year and Harry Cobden is going for the Jockey title. We have already acknowledged those points! Cobden is only 16% at Aintree (-7%) and whilst we are duty bound to report the fact, it is not a negative given the Nicholls strike rate at the course and the types he sends there.

Timeform View

INTHEWATERSIDE looks the part and he rates a smashing hurdles prospect having passed each test in bumpers last term, so is taken to remain unbeaten. Jagwar sets a pretty good standard on his effort in France for another stable, while it's taken time for Theformismighty to make his Rules debut but he could hardly be in better hands. 

Perceived value

We cannot be sure what perceived value is on this occasion. Nicholls has said a number of his charges need a run but we doubt this one will given his high-profile owners, they will want to remain unbeaten! Our Pacafi yesterday was ready to win and the trainer hinted that in the paddock. If the horse was not ready the trainer could easily have found something closer and easier to home. Harry Cobden has gone to Aintree to specifically ride this one and his ride has optimum conditions.

Inthewaterside traded at a high of 10.50 and Betfair SP of 10.00 when winning last time, a race in which it led.

PACAFI Results 2023.

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