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KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 15 November 2023)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 13 November 2023. There is a 9-race card containing 5 Handicaps and 4 Novice Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 123-314 39% -56.56 40-129 31% -14.32 3yo 140-292 48% -19.84 157-528 30% -82.23 4yo+ 47-116 41% -13.78 262-812 32% -39.99 TOTAL 310-722 43% -90.18 459-1469 31% -136.55 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 80-489 16% +27.45 +1% 4 Roger Varian (20%) 71-297 24% -14.38 +4% 4 Charlie Appleby (29%) 61-186 33% -27.26 +4% 2 Richard Hannon (11%) 57-527 11% -136.44 +0% 1 Archie Watson (15%) 46-289 16% -88.08 +1% 2 TOP TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023 +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 23-123 19% -14.90 +4% 4 Charlie Appleby (29%) 13-36 36% +6.05 +7% 2 James Fanshawe (15%) 13-52 25% +7.25 +10% 5 J & T Gosden (21%) 13-52 25% -3.26 +4% 3 Roger Varian (20%) 13-55 24% -9.64 +4% 4 HOT TRAINERS 16/10/2023 to 14/11/2023 +/- E D Menuisier (12%) 5-20 25% +13.88 +13% 2 C Cox (14%) 4-16 25% +2.00 +11% 1 W Haggas (22%) 15-63 24% +18.75 +2% 4 COLD LIST TRAINER SAW E Sir M Prescott (16%) 27 40 days 3 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R Oisin Murphy (19%) 99-486 20% -58.37 +1% 8 David Probert (11%) 96-863 11% -83.63 +0% 4 Hollie Doyle (15%) 87-607 14% -107.01 -1% 0 James Doyle (19%) 72-319 23% -13.95 +4% 3 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 70-547 13% -111.88 +0% 5 TOP JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023 +/- R Oisin Murphy (19%) 30-139 22% -16.86 +3% 8 David Probert (11%) 23-136 17% +86.85 +6% 4 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 21-129 16% -33.17 +3% 5 William Buick (23%) 17-81 21% -16.61 -2% 0 Rossa Ryan (15%) 16-116 14% -40.73 -1% 7 HOT JOCKEYS 16/10/2023 to 14/11/2023 +/- R James Doyle (19%) 8-38 21% -3.00 +2% 3 Rossa Ryan (15%) 16-89 18% -2.65 +3% 7 COLD LIST JOCKEYS SAW R George Rooke (8%) 38 49 days 1 Kieran Shoemark (11%) 26 10 days 3 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 99-359 28% -64.21 +3% 2 Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0 King Power (13%) 26-146 18% -34.60 +5% 0 Shadwell Est (24%) 17-58 29% +12.13 +4% 3 Ahmed Maktoum (23%) 16-75 21% +8.72 -2% 2
FAVOURITES: Our Kempton AW Racecourse Template contains a huge sample size giving the figures a robust and trusted look! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5 years show 769-2191 at 35.10% so around 3% above the national average. A £1 stake on each favourite shows a loss of -£226.73 to SP. There is a 12% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and winning handicap favourites (43% v 31%).
Best strike rates are 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 48%, whilst the worst of the six categories are the 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring 30% so an 18% differential which is acknowledged. The betting advice is to look closely at 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, just a modicum of filtration would have produced a profit to level stakes, our favourite angle into the meeting!
TRAINERS: Our advised approach to betting at Kempton is to play our top trainers and filter out most others completely. Tomorrow's card will revolve around our top trainers and especially the first 5 races which are for 2yos.
Charlie Appleby (29%) is 33% at the course and 31% with his winning 2yos this year, his runners include MUSICAL ACT 5.30 & CUPID'S DREAM 6.00. At Lingfield in the Listed race on Saturday he runs MISCHIEF MAGIC 3.11 and 6/5 is currently available. He is a Group 1 Breeder's Cup winner from this time last year and will be hard to beat!
JOCKEYS: Oisin Murphy (19%) has 8 rides tomorrow, they include MORNING SUIT 3.45, PERFECT SPRING 4.25, MUCHA MUCHACHA 4.55, SIR LES PATTERSON 5.30, SWORD 6.00, ORZO 7.00, SAVVY KNIGHT 7.30, THE COLA KID 8.00.
Rossa Ryan (15%) has 7 rides including ENGINEER 3.45, SEEK AND DESTROY 4.55, GREEN KEEPER 5.30, REVEAL 6.00, BELIEVE YOU ME 6.30, KENZAI WARRIOR 7.30 & AUTUMN ANGEL 8.00
OWNERS: The top owners at a racecourse are always a good source of winners. Godolphin (25%) have won 99 races at Kempton over the past 5 years and they have every chance of reaching 100 with one of their 2 runners tomorrow MUSICAL ACT 5.30 & CUPID'S DREAM 6.00 both trained by Charlie Appleby and both ridden by James Doyle. At Kempton, these owners have scored 333-1246 for 27% (-42.38), in context, the next current working team are Cheveley Park Stud with 64-401 for 16% (-100.44) such is their domination! We have taken those numbers to the bank over the past 3 or 4 years and always a great place to start when looking at a Kempton card!
Shadwell Estate (24%) and have 3 entries including MUKAAFAH 3.45, MUQINAH 4.55 & TAWAJJAH 5.30.
Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum (23%) has 2 entries that are unlikely to trouble the judge, they are SATTWAA 4.55 & REBAATT 6.00
RED FLAG: Generally speaking, our advised approach to betting at Kempton is to play only our top trainers and filter most others completely, unless you have big and real perceived value about something. Tomorrow's card will revolve around our top trainers and especially given the first 5 races which are for 2yos. Only certain trainer's have access the and the skill-set to train these juveniles to win in their first season and the bigger yards come to Kempton to race and educate them. We attempt to name the winning trainers of those first 5 races:
2YO WINNING TRAINERS for 2023 Charlie Appleby (29%) 40-127 for 31% +2% Owen Burrows (20%) 8-34 for 24% +4% Ralph Beckett (18%) 50-221 for 23% +5% Clive Cox (14%) 25-117 for 21% +7% David Menuisier (12%) 7-34 for 21% +9% William Haggas (22%) 25-122 for 20% -2% Dominic Ffrench Davis (9%) 15-81 for 19% +10% Roger Varian (20%) 23-132 for 17% -3% Archie Watson (15%) 25-155 for 16% +1% J & T Gosden (21%) 14-94 for 15% -6% Alice Haynes (12%) 21-140 for 15% +3% Andrew Balding (15%) 35-289 for 12% -3%
This table makes for interesting reading and should shine a light on the first 5 races and it is our view those races will be won by the above trainers. Many of those scanning the table will fail to realise that training 2yos is a separate aspect of training horses. With our betting decisions we always talk in regards to context. For example:
2YO WINNING TRAINERS for 2023 James Fanshawe (15%) 4-47 for 9% -6% H & R Charlton (16%) 3-42 for 7% -9% Sir Michael Stoute (19%) 2-29 for 7% -12% Jamie Osborne (9%) 2-38 for 5% -4% Harry Eustace (14%) 2-51 for 4% -10% Sir Mark Prescott (16%) 1-53 for 2% -14% Nigel Tinkler (9%) 1-91 for 1% -8% Alan King (14%) 0-14 for 0% -14%
Sir Michael Stoute and Sir Mark Prescott have trained just 3 2yo winners between them - Alan King has trained 0. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a national average of just 9% yet has scored more 2yo winners than the esteemed list above put together! By the way, Nigel Tinkler (9%) trains the current and gambled 2/1 favourite HEARITFORTHEBOYS 4.25. Yes, the trainer is in good form with 3 winners from his last 9 runners but could our member back the trainer at 1% with his 2yos this year! What are the mathematics saying? Over the past 5 years on the AW he scores 4-74 for 5% (-50.63).
PERTINENCE3.45 (Winning favs: 39%)
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |