ASSAILANT 2.30 Newcastle at 11/10
The Racing Horse Composite
Trainer Form: 6-26 for 23% (10) National average: 21% (10) Course Strike Rate: 32% (10) RPR: 84 (10) Optimum Ground: Standard (10) Optimum Distance: 1m1f+ (10) Jockey: Rob Havlin (10) National Average: 14% (10) Course Strike Rate: 24% (10) Trainer & Jockey AW Combo: 24% (10) Total: (100)
Good debut, drops in class over a trip to suit
Assailant is a 900,000gns yearling and a Dubawi half-brother to several winners, including 1m winner Chartreuse and 1¼m winner Gloria Mundi, both useful. The colt shaped encouragingly when 3rd of 7 in maiden at York over a mile in soft ground when noticeably he was made the 9/4 favourite. That race was a Class 2 and he now drops into a Class 4 on better ground and looks to be open to huge improvement now upped in trip.
Some of the Goden's juveniles are improving massively for a run and watching the debut a number of times this could be the next one to do so, but even if only improves for the run is going to be hard to beat off a RPR of 84.
Team Gosden enjoy sending their runners to Newcastle scoring 23-73 for a big 32% which is +11% above their national average. Of those beaten at the course 16 have finished second for a 39-73 for 53.42% proving they race to win at this course! The 2yos show 7-19 for 37% at the course and Rob Havlin rides. With 2yos racing over an extreme distance (1m2f+) for their age, a jockey like Havlin is well suited to ride, he will not get excited a long way from home. The jockey scores at 24% at Newcastle and combines 24% with the trainers.
The main rival could be Mr Hampstead for Roger Varian. This Galileo colt was foaled March 30 and a $575,000 yearling. Brother to smart 1¼m-1½m winner Savethelastdance so a top pedigree for a yard whose newcomers command respect. Tokyo Boy will also be suited to the step up to 1m2f when second at Nottingham last month. We are reminded his trainer is 62-296 for 21% with 2yos this year but only 7-72 for 10% this year.
ASSAILANT sets the standard on the basis of his York third, though newcomers Mr Hampstead and Meydaan possess glittering pedigrees and could well prove above average newcomers. Tokyo Bay also showed plenty to like on his first start and can't be ruled out in an intriguing contest.
The 11/10 looks north of perceived value given the promise of a big step forward from debut over this sort of trip.
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