The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Saturday 9 December 2023. The going is expected to be heavy. Adverse weather has wreaked havoc on the National Hunt Racing scene recently and we really hope this fixture survives. There is a 7.30am inspection on Saturday for its eight-race card which features the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial.

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CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 62-126   49%   -0.14    32-117   27%   -23.92
Chase  8-17     47%   -2.57    51-149   34%    -3.31
NHF    14-46    30%  -10.66    0-0	 	
TOTAL  84-189   44%  -13.36    83-266   31%   -27.23

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  56-213   26%   -34.10   +2%   6
Evan Williams (11%)  25-240   10%   -27.37   -1%   3
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-122   13%   -33.52   -5%   0
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-125   13%   -44.04   -2%   0
Ven Williams (17%)   15-91    16%    +0.37   -1%   3

HOT TRAINERS 09/11/2023 to 08/12/2023        +/-   E
Tom Lacey (16%)	     7-22    32%    +6.32   +16%   1
Nigel T-Davies (15%) 17-54   32%   +15.33   +17%   3
Ven Williams (17%)   17-55   31%    -2.39   +14%   3
Kim Bailey (16%)     10-34   29%    -1.00   +13%   4    
Ryan Potter (10%)    3-11    27%    +1.50   +17%   1
Paul Nicholls (24%)  25-100  25%    -9.57    +1%   6

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)  39-149   26%   -45.95    +3%   0  
Adam Wedge (13%)    18-165   11%   -13.37    -2%   7
Ben Jones (14%)     16-69    23%   +23.58    +9%   7
Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-104   14%   -29.63    -2%   0
Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-72    19%    +3.47    -1%   0

HOT JOCKEYS 09/11/2023 to 08/12/2023         +/-   R
Stan Sheppard (15%) 9-30    30%	   -1.00    +15%   3
Paul O'Brien (11%)  7-42    17%	   -2.00     +6%   2
Ben Jones (14%)	    8-50    16%	   -4.00     +2%   7
  
TOP 6 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (14%) 11-61   18%    -2.87    +4%   2   
John P McManus (17%) 10-66   15%    +4.40    -2%   1   
Colm Donlon (25%)    6-13    46%   +12.93   +21%   1
Walters Plant (19%)  6-36    17%    -9.05    -2%   2  
K & A Brooks (19%)   5-12    42%   +10.87   +23%   0
David Brace (12%)    5-23    22%    +8.00   +10%   0 

Chepstow Fixtures:
Saturday 9 December 2023
Wednesday 27 December 2023 - WELSH GRAND NATIONAL

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 167 winning favourites from 455 races (-40.59) for 36.70% so around +4% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 84-189 for 44% whilst handicap winning favourites score 83-266 for 31% for a 13% differential.

TRAINERS: There are 6 hot trainers with runners at the track and they saddle 18 horses and its reasonable to expect multiple winners from this grouping!

Paul Nicholls (24%) is top trainer at Chepstow and his runners are always of mega-interest. He was 2 from 3 at the last meeting including a 1-2. His entries include PADDY DE POLE 12.27, QUEL DESTIN 1.37. TAKE YOUR TIME 2.12, ISAAC DES OBEAUX 2.47, HURRICANE DANNY 3.20 & MOUNT GAY RUN 3.50.

Kim Bailey (16%) is in form and is 3-6 for 50% (-5.00) with his runners at Chepstow this season. He has 4 runners including SPRUCEFRONTIERS 12.27, TWO FOR GOLD 1.37, HURLERONTHEDITCH 2.12 & MAGICAL ESCAPE 3.20.

JOCKEYS: Adam Wedge (13%) has been in the doldrums somewhat this season showing just 20-225 for a mediocre 9% so -4% below his national average. As senior jockey riding at this meeting he has an excellent chance to catch up (especially with the absence of Harry Cobden) and has 7 rides, they include: VALENS BRUYEE 12.27, TIMEFORATUNE 1.02, PATS FANCY 1.37, HURRICANE HIGHWAY 2.23, KARATE DORI 2.47, RANGE 3.20 & BOBBI'S ENDEAVOUR 3.50.

Meanwhile Ben Jones (14%) is riding out of his skin and since October he shows 12-76 for 16% including a great win treble at the last meeting! He is clearly improving at a rate of knots and has 7 rides also including HAWAII DU MESTIVEL 12.27, HIGH GAME ROYAL 1.02, DR KARANAGA 1.37, IBERIO 2.12, HAITI COULEURS 2.47, JOKER DE THAIX 3.20 & WALK IN THE HILLS 3.50

Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald