BURDETT ROAD 2.10 Chepstow at 2/5 (1/2 ante-post)

Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m11y

Pedigree

 (18,000gns vendor F); fourth foal; dam unraced sister to 5 winners from 7f-1m4f notably Rip Van Winkle (1m-1m2f Group 1), half-sister to Italian 1m Group 3 winner Le Vie Infinite out of Listed-placed 7f winner

The Racing Horse Composite 

Trainer Form: 3-5 for 60%           (10)
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA              (10)
OR & RPR: 137 & 142                 (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m                (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden                (10)
National Average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 28%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Bolted up in Grade 2 at Cheltenham on soft ground

Visually, we were astonished with the run of Burdett Road at Cheltenham last time out, and for a number of reasons. He ended last Flat season rated 101 and bolted up on his hurdles debut at Huntingdon despite refusing to settle in the first-time hood. Up in grade at Cheltenham and faced with softer ground, he was dropped right out (and we mean dropped right out) and tanked his way through the race, before storming clear up the run-in without his rider having to resort to the whip. At the time we were bewildered as to what Harry Cobden was doing being so far back, and not remotely interested in a pitch or in anything going on ahead of him.

Looking at his gate he should be even better back on a sounder surface, but we need to confirm his winter ground credentials for this race first before wagering! He has set a high bar for the British juveniles this season and was cut to around 10/1 to 12/1 for the Triumph. Yes, he has to beat the Irish runners but just one of those oppose him on Wednesday.

It's exciting and the real deal - James Owen

James Owen was delighted with his charge after easily winning the JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) over 2m on soft ground on 18 November. He told us: "The Triumph will be the aim now. It's exciting. When Burdett Road gets good ground he'll be the real deal. We learnt a bit more about him there. We had to ride him like that. When the rain came last night I thought 'oh my god' but he's a fair animal. He's learnt a lot and he'll be exciting come March.

Ground concerns

Looking at the 'oh my god' exclamation from the trainer we noted a couple of things which help confirm the wager. His trainer wants better ground for his charge and we understand that, and his sire Muhaarar was primarily a sprinting 6f horse winning 5 from 6, though he did win over 7f from 2 starts. His optimum ground appeared to be faster ground, though interestingly he was 1-1 on good to soft and 1-2 on soft. Critically his dam Diamond Bangle, who never raced, is sired by the stayer Galileo who was 1-1 on heavy, 1-1 on soft and 1-1 on yielding. The point we are making is the Pacafi has soft ground genes. Also we note the three progeny of the dam are all being raced on soft ground also meaning we are happy to wager on this ground!

Trainer & Jockey

Trainer James Owen had his first NH winner in May of this year and is clearly one to watch going forward.

December 2023	3-11	27%
November 2023	5-28	18
October 2023	3-17	18%
September 2023	1-13	 8%
August 2023	4-10	40%
July 2023	2-13	15%
June 2023	4-10	40%
May 2023	4-12	33%

Since then, his total figures show 26-114 for 22.81% so excellent numbers. Of his last 5 runners 3 have won at prices of 8/1, 15/8 and 8/1 which augurs well. He has only had one previous runner at Chepstow previously but Harry Cobden rides the course beautifully scoring at 26% whilst his combination with the trainer shows 9-28 for 32% (+5.19).

Best juvenile I have ever ridden - Harry Cobden

By the way, Harry Cobden has said this is the very best juvenile he has ever ridden, and given the amount of horses he has sat on for Paul Nicholls this is indeed high praise!

Main contender

Harsh, for Joseph O'Brien, built on his Punchestown hurdle debut third, though still not slick in the jumping department, he was much too good for his rivals at Cork next up. He's a useful prospect and will get better with hurdling experience and we know he likes the ground. Jonjo O'Neill Jnr rides.

Perceived Value

The 2/5 looks a fair price though we are on at 1/2 ante-post prices. This is probably the best juvenile 3yo hurdler in the UK and if the stable believe they have a chance of the Triumph Hurdle they have to take this race first, and we believe they will.

BY THE WAY: We are staking IT'S A BREEZE 3.45 Wincanton today given our information from the Paul Nicholls stable and expect him to be a little good good for main rival ANOTHER FINE MESS (stake saver)...

PACAFI Results 2023. i