The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 21 February 2024. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Conditions Stakes, a Classified Stakes and a Novice Stakes Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

WHAT ARE RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   104-265	39%   -47.86   38-104	 37%	+3.21
3yo   123-259	49%   -10.38   129-423	 30%   -55.42
4yo+   42-100	42%    -7.14   218-695	 31%   -68.33
TOTAL 269-615	44%   -65.38   385-1222	 32%  -120.53

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  73-451   16%   +17.48   +1%   3  
Charlie Appleby (29%) 63-191   33%   -36.58   +4%   2   
Roger Varian (20%)    58-246   24%   -28.35   +4%   0
Richard Hannon (11%)  46-413   11%   -97.25   +0%   0    
J & T Gosden (21%)    40-196   20%   -38.32   -1%   2

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023                +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  25-142  18%   -14.90    +3%   3      
Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-46   35%    +2.27    +6%   2    
Roger Varian (20%)    16-66   24%    -6.81    +4%   0    
James Fanshawe (14%)  14-61   23%    +0.75    +9%   1     
J & T Gosden (21%)    14-65   22%   -12.26    +1%   2

HOT TRAINERS 22/01/2024 to 20/02/2024         +/-   E  
Charlie Appleby (29%)  18-42	43%   -1.00  +14%   2
Kevin Ryan (12%)	3-10	30%   -2.67  +18%   1
J & T Gosden (21%)	2-7	29%   -0.55   +8%   2
Eve J-Houghton (12%)	2-8	25%   -2.50  +13%   1
Andrew Balding (15%)   10-43	23%  +10.78   +8%   3
Charlie Johnston (14%) 10-46	22%   -1.91   +8%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
David Probert (12%)  87-725   12%    -31.66   +0%   3
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 72-534   13%   -105.13   +0%   3    
Oisin Murphy (19%)   71-368   19%    -47.22   +0%   4
Hollie Doyle (15%)   69-488   14%   -112.30   -1%   3
William Buick (23%)  67-296   23%    -66.25   -1%   2
     
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023                 +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)   32-156   21%   -15.86    +2%   4  
David Probert (12%)  23-147   16%   +75.85    +4%   3    
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 22-147   15%   -48.67    +2%   3    
William Buick (23%)  21-89    24%   -15.07    +1%   2  
Rossa Ryan (16%)     18-128   14%   -29.53    -2%   2

HOT JOCKEYS 22/01/2023 to 20/02/2024          +/-   R
William Buick (23%) 15-25   60%	   +2.76     +37%   2
Joe Fanning (13%)    8-22   36%	  +13.38     +23%   2
Tom Marquand (15%)  10-50   20%	   -8.00      +5%   6

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     91-324   28%   -67.75    +3%   2
King Power (13%)     21-121   17%   -29.19    +5%   1  
Shadwell Est (24%)   18-62    29%   +10.88    +5%   0
Opulence Thoro (18%) 14-46    30%   +11.44   +12%   1
Hamdan Maktoum (21%) 14-66    21%   +57.68    +0%   0 
    
FIXTURES:					
Wednesday 21 February 2024
Wednesday 28 February 2024

FORTHCOMING TEMPLATES
Chepstow (Saturday 24 February 2024)

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some real substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 654-1837 for 35.60% and a level stake loss of -185.91. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a 12% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 123-259 for 49% (-10.38) ← ←
WORST CATEGORY: 3yo HANDICAPS 129-423 for 30% (-55.42)

TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby has 2 runners including LOS TOLDOS 5.30 & NOTABLE SPEECH 7.00. He scores 33% at Kempton (5-years), 35% for 2023 and so far in 2024 shows 5-8 for 63% (+0.96).

Andrew Balding (15%) is the top trainer at Kempton AW scoring 76-459 for 17% (+17.41) over the past 5-years. He has 3 runners including ARCTIC THUNDER 7.00, ELEANOR CROSS 7.30 & LEGACY POWER 8.30

J & T Gosden (21%) has 2 runners including MONTEROSA 5.30 & BLOWN AWAY 7.00, both have place chances.

JOCKEYS: Four of our top jockeys are in attendance for this meeting and likely to dominate proceedings. WILLIAM BUICK (23%) has 2 rides and almost certain to ride at least 1 winner, his rides include LOS TOLDOS 5.30 & NOTABLE SPEECH 7.00.

Tom Marquand (15%) has 6 rides including TIME PATROL 5.00, COLLEGE CHOIR 5.30, SOLOMON 7.00, SILVER NIGHTFALL 7.30, LARGO BAY 8.00 DE VEGA'S WARRIOR 8.30

Oisin Murphy (19%) has 4 rides including ARCTIC THUNDER 7.00, ELEANOR CROSS 7.30, ALIOSKI 8.00 & LEGACY POWER 8.30

Hollie Doyle (15%) has 3 rides including MAURICES MEN 5.00, BLOWN AWAY 7.00 & HOTAUGUSTNIGHT 7.30

OWNERS: The top owners at any of the courses is always a good source of winners. Godolphin (25% have 2 runners, King Power (13%) and Opulence Thoroughbreds (18%) have a single entry each.

BY THE WAY: Our horse PENTLAND HILLS 1.15 (Saturday) has an entry at this course but will not run if the ground remains soft. More news to follow later in the week. He is ready to run and ready to win, just need good to soft ground and the requisite engagement.

RED FLAG: Once again we look at Charlie Appleby (29%) at Kempton. He has the highest national average in the UK with 29% and is clearly the best trainer of horses in the UK. At Kempton last year he scored 16-46 for 35% (+2.27) so +6% above his NA. Over the past 5-years he shows 63-191 for 33% and we remind members the figures are without filtration. So far this year in the UK he shows 8-18 for 44% (-2.59) and within those figures there are 3 second places. When he combines with William Buick they record 271-826 for 33% (+6.68) and £10,736,001 in prizemoney in the UK alone. There are no comparable figures in horse racing we know of.

CHARLIE APPLEBY £££

The trainer has 2 runners today and TRH has backed both, Los Toldos 5.30  at 1.96 to 1.98 and Notable Speaker 7.00 at 1.94 to 1.96. We were out of the office last night so have missed best prices, but as always, will record prices advised on email alert. Both have drifted, but there is no concern and we can expect them to shorten back later in the day.

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LOS TOLDOS

TIMEFORM COMMENT: LOS TOLDOS shaped well on debut when runner-up to a useful prospect at Wolverhampton 11 days ago, finishing with running left, and he can build on that effort to open his account. He is taken to get the better of Monterosa, who sets the standard based on her second in a Newmarket nursery when last seen, with Encomiare completing the shortlist. 

GODOLPHIN COMMENT:Frankel colt 750,000gns Y; fourth foal; half- to 6f 2yo winner Lajooje (RPR 87); dam 7f/1m winner (inc Listed; 106), half-sister to 5f Group 1 winner Equiano and 5f Listed winner Encore D'Or; promising second in 12f Wolverhampton novice stakes on debut in February 2024. 

TRH VIEW: Los Toldos was slowly away (Danny Tudhope) on debut at Wolverhampton making headway 3f out before finishing 2nd. The Frankel colt was staying on gradually without being knocked about. This big colt is expected to step forward massively for the run and go one better now under William Buick!

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NOTABLE SPEECH

TIMEFORM COMMENT: This can go to NOTABLE SPEECH, who should have learnt plenty from his comfortable debut victory over C&D last month. Blown Away and Solomon look the likeliest dangers. Notable Speech traded at a high of 12.00 and Betfair SP of 1.94 when winning last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear.

GODOLPHIN COMMENT: Dubawi colt. First foal; dam 6f AW 2yo winner/UAE Oaks second (RPR 99), half-sister to winners Wild Beauty (6f-1m inc Canadian 2yo Grade 1), Desert Wisdom (UAE 1m Group 3/7f dirt) and Ottoman Court (6f AW 2yo) out of 7f (Listed)/1m winner; impressive winner of 1m Kempton maiden on debut in January 2024; looks useful.

TRH View: Notable Speech could be anything and open to plenty of improvement, looks a highly promising type. His debut course and distance win must be upgraded because despite greenness he quickened from the rear when conceding first runs after a steadily run race. The stable won this race in 2021 & 2022 and we cannot envisage defeat given a kind trip! William Buick rides.

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