Yesterday, jockey William Buick rode a PACAFI WIN DOUBLE for TRH in a 90-minute period. Yes, he was on the best horse on both occasions but the manner, competence then style of his victories impressed us immensely yet again! We have long said Buick is the complete package for a jockey, and we refuse to compare him with Ryan Moore. Here is our chapter on jockey competence from our eBook:

Everything in racing is an estimate, nothing is absolute, this especially applies to jockey bookings. Whilst their role is most critical within the race itself, it is massively important prior to and after the race also, something not fully acknowledged by the punting masses! 

It is impossible to measure or be scientific about the importance of the role of the jockey in a particular race. We do know they are the conduit from the trainer and the horse's preparation, it is their skill-set and split-second decision-making that heavily contributes to the result of a race (and any consequent profit and loss to the bettor). Every jockey booking ever made has a negative or positive impact or quality quotient, and this allegorical number varies from day to day and course to course. It is difficult, but this help versus hinder estimate must somehow be factored-in when profiling a race.

Numeric Value: a quantitative value assigned

Despite the public knowing more about the individual jockeys than ever before, this factor remains grossly underestimated in those serious betting decisions, and certainly not argument-weighted in the framing of the market. We take this opportunity to elaborate.

The jockey is not just the conduit from trainer to horse, the moment he/she mounts the horse in the paddock until he/she returns, every movement and thought process is transmitted then received into the animal's brain, and they will remember the experience. This acquaintance or association not only offers an optimum finishing position, but one able to teach and communicate with the horse going forward.

Trainers are not duty bound to give a ride to the best jockey available, they might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted by the owner, rides work or a favoured son, but the bettor has no such restrictions.

Once the horse arrives at the course ready to race after weeks and months of schooling, training and preparation, why would a bettor compromise a winning chance by accepting a negative or mediocre jockey booking?

As part of our composite (which accompanies each and every Pacafi), we look at jockey competence and mark them accordingly. The mark reflects context, skill, proficiency and strike rate, so math-based. Naturally this is open to some conjecture especially given jockeys perform differently, better or worse on the different AW Courses including Polytrack and Tapeta, and again, much differently on the AW to Turf.

There are around 440 jockeys currently licensed in Britain as well as 300 amateur riders, the difference between the best and the worst is subjective, but nonetheless colossal. Whilst it is impossible to measure the exact numeric value of a jockey in an individual race - they do have a numeric value.

But that's not all. After the race a certain number of jockeys are able to pass on to the trainer and owners the most valuable and critical information not readily available to the betting public that would otherwise be missed, lost or not deemed useful. Each jockey is not equal in this regard, once again there is a gulf between the best and the worst.

Clearly, jockeys are one of the most important yet underestimated factors in horse racing betting. Anyone can view the rating of a horse, know the value of the trainer, but cannot quantify or estimate the value of the pilot so data deficient. Because of our demand for high strike rate we only back the better class jockeys, and do not subscribe to the view their riding ability and tactical acumen is factored into the price of the horse. In ALL my years of betting I have never heard anyone say: "Yes, I backed this horse at 7/1 with Charlie Bennett (5%) riding and I factored the jockey skill set into the price!"

Backing a moderate or inexperienced jockey (irrespective of the price of the horse on offer) is not conducive to our risk versus reward mindset. We know of no professional bettors, or read any books who claim to have 'cracked it' using moderate jockeys

Suffice it to say, if one wants to maximise success as a punter you must seriously reconsider jockey competence, failing that, secure a perceived value price that takes his or her numeric value into account.

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