EXCELERO 2.30 Market Rasen at 4/9 

Easter Sunday & Centenary Celebration Raceday Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m125y

Pedigree

€49,000 Y; sixth foal; half-brother to French winners Perpetual Movment (2m1f hurdle) and Kapeloi (2m6f Listed chase); dam placed 2m2f hurdle/chase in France, half-sister to French 2m4f/2m6f Grade 1 chase winner Oculi

Trainer Form 2024: 7-45 for 16%     (10)
National average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA              (10)
OR & RPR: 124 & 135                 (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m+               (10)
Jockey: David Noonan                (10)
National Average: 6%                 (9)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 13%         (10)
Total:                              (99)

Good pedigree

Excelero has a good pedigree and showed plenty to work amidst inexperience when 2nd of 9 in a juvenile maiden at Warwick over 2m on heavy ground in November. The 4yo Castle Du Berlais gelding shaped with a ton of promise for a yard whose runners tend to improve markedly from first to second start. He is bred to get further and was out sped from the last and a stiffer track beckoned! The winner of that race was the Triumph Hurdle third franking the form.

Improved when running in a Grade 2

He was then thrown into a Grade 2 at Cheltenham and improved when 4th behind the Nicky Henderson trained Sir Gino and the James Owen trained Burdett Road. He now drops to a Class 4 and wears a first-time hood to keep the selection focussed and he must surely outclass his rivals!

Best track?

Given the rational above we thought the Pacafi's next run would be over a stiffer track. Market Rasen tends to suit sharp nippy types, but the home straight is really long and this might be the reason he is running here! We would have raced the Pacafi elsewhere but we have a class differential that should render this negative cancelled!

Jockey concern?

David Noonan rides at 6% and we cannot remember when we last backed another jockey (other than Noonan) at such a low strike rate. He is a decent jockey and we cannot explain his low figures. When riding for Jane Williams he scores 25-194 for 13% so over double his national average.

Timeform View 

 EXCELERO took a step forward from his encouraging hurdling debut effort when third behind Sir Gino in a Cheltenham Grade 2 in January and he rates the one to beat returned to calmer waters with further progress in the offing. Glimpse of Glory should appreciate the demands of this track judged on her debut effort at Wetherby and is a threat. Opera King is also worth a look on hurdles bow.

Perceived Value

The 4/9 looks a great price - we priced this future Grade performer close to 1/3.

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