DEIRA MILE 5.50 Windsor at 8/13

Global QA ISO & BRC Consultants Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f

Pedigree

47,000gns Y; third foal; dam Listed-placed 1m1f winner (RPR 96), half-sister to Listed-placed winners Walkinthesand (7f/1m2f) and Aceland Street (6f-7.5f) out of 1m winning half-sister to Cheveley Park winner Wannabe Grand

Trainer Form: 1-8 for 12% for 2024  (10)
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 71%             (10)
OR: 109                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Versatile           (10)      
Optimum Distance: 1m2f              (10)
Jockey: Jim Crowley                 (10)
National Average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 29%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

 Group 1 to Class 5 - a confidence booster?

Deira Mile outran her odds of 50/1 when finishing an excellent fourth in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster in October, today he races in a Class 5 Novice at Windsor. He is rated 27lbs superior to the current second favourite and receives a stone in weight from the older horses.

The only query is the fast ground but his sire Camelot enjoyed his best days on good ground and whilst the dam Fastnet Mist won on yielding, she was an excellent third on firm ground in a Curragh Listed Race after looking certain to finish second. Her sire Fastnet Rock was versatile winning from good to heavy and looking at the racing gait of Deira Mile the ground should not be an issue!

Trainer form

The form of Owen Burrows is not a worry. He has only had 8 runners for 2024 with just the 1 winner but he would not have entered his charge in this particular race for a cobweb blower! This looks every inch a confidence booster on a course where the trainer is 5-7 for 71% (+35.50). The combination with jockey Jim Crowley is most compelling scoring 44-153 for a big 29% and a huge +83.93 to level stakes! The jockey himself rides the course at 25%, is 41% on favourites and 31% when having just one ride at a meeting.

Contenders

Castle In The Sand, a runner-up on each of his last three starts, looks best placed to take advantage should the selection underperform. St Mungos Park struggled in a warm Newmarket novice on his debut, but he could pick up some minor money in these calmer waters.

Timeform Comments 

DEIRA MILE showed plenty in four starts last season, culminating in a solid fourth in a Group 1 at Doncaster, and he will prove hard to beat back up in trip here. Castle In The Sand is the clear pick for forecast purposes, with Bobacious perhaps the best option for those seeking an each-way angle.

Perceived Value

The 8/13 must be perceived value given the form measured against the biggest class drop we have witnessed for a long time. On a personal note we have backed the Pacafi at prices between 1.77 to 1.88 for a 3pt win stake. 

Deira Mile traded at a low of 36.00 and Betfair SP of 52.97 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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Apologies

TRH would like to apologise to members for the awful advice given for Saturday's racing. It was below standard on a number of levels! Suffice it to say we have kicked ourselves up the proverbial and whilst that will not return losing stakes to members we are hurting as a consequence! Be assured we place stake money on the advice which represents a pension for us, losing is not an option...

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By the way

Members will note we have closed the door for membership except for former members. Former members are always welcomed back. Our aim is to continue things in their present form for the rest of 2024 and try to improve things in a general sense. We will stake stock of things at the end of December, we then go racing in Australia until mid-February when there will be no service whatsoever. On our return a decision will be made as to our future plans...

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PACAFI RESULTS (2018 – 2024)