CHEPSTOW Racecourse Template (Friday 26 April 2024)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Friday 26 April 2024. There is an 8-race card and the going is expected to be good, good to soft in places.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE WHAT'S ON

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 71-145   49%   +0.10    38-132   29%   -23.52
Chase  8-17     47%   -2.57    58-172   34%    -7.93
NHF    17-53    32%  -13.28    0-0	 	
TOTAL  96-215   45%  -15.75    96-304   32%   -31.46

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  59-229   26%   -38.41   +2%   5
Evan Williams (11%)  30-279   11%   -35.50   +0%   1  
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-128   13%   -39.52   -6%   4  
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-132   12%   -51.04   -3%   1
Ven Williams (16%)   15-108   14%   -16.62   -2%   2

HOT TRAINERS 27/03/2024 to 25/04/2024        +/-   E
Rob Llewellyn (18%)  5-12   42%	  +17.75    +24%   3
Harry Derham (25%)   9-28   32%	   -2.00     +7%   1
Robert Walford (13%) 6-20   30%	   +5.00    +17%   1
Harry Fry (18%)	     5-18   28%	   +1.16    +10%   2
Olly Murphy (18%)   11-46   24%	   -1.87     +6%   1

COLD TRAINERS          SAW                         E
Charlie Longsdon (13%)	45    46 days              3
Ben Clarke (14%)	35    84 days              2
Fergal O'Brien (19%)	23     6 days              4
Ven Williams (16%)      19    17 days              2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)    43-159   27%   -36.20  +4%   6
Adam Wedge (13%)      21-180   12%   -19.8   -1%   0
Ben Jones (14%)       20-91    22%   +67.05  +8%   2
Lorcan Williams (13%) 15-75    20%   -20.68  +8%   0 
Jonjo O'Neill (16%)   15-111   14%   -3.663  -2%   1

HOT JOCKEYS 27/03/2024 to 25/04/2024         +/-   E
Harry  Kimber (12%) 7-25   28%	 +1.00      +16%   1
Stan Sheppard (16%) 7-26   27%	 -3.00      +11%   1
  
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (13%) 11-65   17%    -6.87    +4%   0
John P McManus (15%) 10-71   14%    -0.59    -1%   0
David Brace (13%)     7-26   27%   +26.00   +14%   3
Colm Donlon (24%)     6-14   43%   +11.93   +18%   0 
Walters Plant (19%)   6-40   15%   -13.05    -4%   0

Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures:		 
Friday 26 April 2024
Tuesday 14 May 2024

CHEPSTOW TEMPLATES - FREE OF CHARGE

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 192 winning favourites from 519 races for 36.99% (-47.21) so around +4% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 96-215 for 45% whilst handicap winning favourites score 96-304 for 32% for a 13% differential.

With just a modicum of filtration, backing winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles and chases at Chepstow is a micro-system. The last 5-years show 79-162 for 49% (-2.47 to SP). Using these numbers blind to Betfair SP produces a profit without any filtration, the TRH has successfully used these number for about 8 years.

BEST CATEGORY: Non-handicap hurdles 71-145 for 49% (+0.10)
WORST CATEGORY: Handicap hurdles 38-132 for 29% (-23.52) 

TRAINERS: Paul Nicholls is top trainer at Chepstow and that position is unlikely to change next season. He has a national average of 24% but scores 26% at Chepstow so his runners should always be carefully processed. He has 5 runners for this meeting including MATTERHORN 5.40, DIEGO DU CHARMIL 6.10, BANTEER 6.40, FLORENCETHEMACHINE & HURRICANE DANNY 8.15.

JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23% is top jockey at the course scoring at 27%. He has 6 rides including SPRING GALE 4.39, INNISFREE LAD 5.10, MATTERHORN 5.40, DIEGO DU CHARMIL 6.10, BANTEER 6.40 & FLORENCETHEMACHINE 8.15.

OWNERS: It has been a particularly poor season (2023/2024) for Mr and Mrs William Rucker (13%) having scored just 3-53 for 6% (-43.13) which represents their worst figures since 2007/2008. They have raced just 53 runners this season which represents their lowest number in 10 years with only 4 runners for April, there are no entries for the rest of the week! Their intended runners recently have been withdrawn and we hope these owners have not lost interest in our sport given the tailing off...

RED FLAG: David Brace (13%) is an interesting character who scores 27% at Chepstow, though someone not generally well known outside South Wales scene, but one who impacts on the Point-To-Point scene in the UK generally! TRH was lucky enough to meet him and visit his stud in Pyle, Bridgend when he had Bach and Doctor Massini on sire duty. He has 3 runners tomorrow including 2 running in the Dunraven Bowl Hunters' Chase, a race he would very much like to win given his sponsorship of this particular race and the meeting.

His runners include NEWMILL GETAWAY 4.39 in the opening Maiden Hurdle, and GATS AND CO & LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN 7.40 in the Dunraven Bowl. Both of those are available at 9/2 and 6/1 (Bet365) respectively. TRH is not a fan of betting on Hunter Chases and does not do recreational betting, but the advice is to nominate Gats And Co given Looksnowtlikebrian is now a 13yo and only raced on Saturday (6 days ago). We are not saying he cannot win, David Brace would have had a plan or seen enough last Saturday...

PERTINENCE & PERTAINING

4.39
FLOATING LINE (N Henderson) beaten favourite last time out, 4th place finish on hurdles debut turned out to be pretty strong form. Nico de Boinville rides
SPRING GALE (H Daly) just about the best form on offer, Harry Cobden rides
SHE'S MY SHADOW (R Llewellyn) placed last of 3 starts in points (2022), promising return to action when 2nd over 2m here a fortnight ago, open to progress. Liam Harrison rides

5.10
INNISFREE LAD (D Dennis) unreliable but weighted to win 122 > 115, and Harry Cobden rides
NO NO MAESTRO (F O'Brien) gained 4th success over fences at Uttoxeter last June. Ran badly on his return at Taunton but returning from 9-month absence. Jonathan Burke rides
LEADING SWOOP (R Walford) trainer +£19.85 when one runner on the card (chases), Harry Kimber rides

5.40
MATTERHORN (P Nicholls) trainer 26% at course, won both previous outings after wind surgery, taken to bounce back from a poor run on Kempton handicap debut over Christmas. Harry Cobden rides and 26% at course
AUCUNRISQUE (C Gordon) weighted to witn 138 > 134, Freddie Gordon rides
LUNA SOVEREIGN (D Skelton) 
Lightly-raced 8yo who caught the eye when 4th in Swinton Hurdle at Haydock last spring, eased 3lbs, Tristan Durrell (3) rides

6.10
DIEGO DU CHARMIN (P Nicholls) course winner, latest success over fences was gained in Ascot Listed handicap in November 2019. Not stay in latest 3m run at Ascot, 12yo but major player back down in trip, Harry Cobden rides

OPENING BID (C Down) drops from Grade 2 to Class 3, Bryan Carver rides
NORTHERN BOUND (B Pauling) weighted to win 133 > 123, Ben Jones rides

6.40
BANTEER (P Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out, trainer +£38.57 with hurdlers using first time headgear, trainer 26% at course, Harry Cobden rides and 26% at course
ROARING LEGEND (O Murphy) fairly useful on Flat for James Ferguson, promising start over hurdles when runner-up in juveniles at Kempton and Musselburgh. Disappointing since but had wind surgery so capable of bouncing back. Dylan Johnston (5) rides
DOG FOX (Greenall & Guierriero) dual Flat winner didn't shape too badly at Huntingdon over Easter, place chance, Toby Wynne (3) rides

7.10
BREAK MY SOUL (N Henderson) expensive recruit from points, found less than seemed likely a couple of times but, given what she's achieved, she might not have to come off the bridle to win this, Nico de Boinville rides PACAFI STATUS

HIGH JOKER (R Llewellyn) market check for shrewd stable, Charlie Price (3) rides
REHILL RELIC (S Allwood) showed ability in bumper and stepped forward markedly from hurdling debut when 4th in novice at Huntingdon last time. Robert Dunne rides

7.40
GATS AND CO (D Brace) Won 4 staying handicap chases on the bounce in 2022 (3 here, 2 over C&D).Tom Broughton rides
LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN (D Brace) course winner, useful handicap chaser at best for Tim Vaughan. Prolific winning pointer since,and is likely to go close. Osian Radford (7) rides
RED NIKA (E O'Donnabhain) beaten favourite last time out, James King rides

8.15
SISTER MICHAEL (Killahena & McPherson) beaten favourite last time out, Richie McLernon rides
UP FOR PAROL (J Snowden) beaten favourite last time out, William Featherstone (10) rides
FLORENCETHEMACHINE (P Nicholls) trainer 26%, confirmed hurdling promise when landing 2m Exeter novice in January. Back on track when 3rd at course (travelled strongly) can win if staying longer trip, Harry Cobden rides and 26% at course.

 Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *