Pacafi (1 August 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment
31July2018

 Star Shield 2.45 Redcar at 13/8

Racing UK Extra On racinguk.com Novice Stakes (7f)

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Pedigree: 140,000gns Y; 5th foal; half-brother to winners Kilmah (6f/7f 2yo inc Group 3; RPR 104) and Tears Of The Sun (1m-1m4f inc Fibresand; 101); dam 7f-1m winner (inc at 2/Listed; 105), half-sister to 1m2f Listed winner Rewarded out of Listed-placed 1m winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10) 
Optimum Distance: 7f (10)
Jockey Booking: Yuga Kuwada (9)
Trainer Form: 2 from his last 8 for 25% (10) 
RPR: 86 (10)
The Racing Horse Composite: 49/50

Main danger: Calendimaggio

Not knocked about on debut

Star Shield is a 140,00gns half-brother to Tears Of The Sun, who won four times between 1m and 1m 4f. The Helmet colt was not expected to win on his racecourse debut at Newmarket in a Class 5 Maiden over 7f on good to firm ground in June but was an eye-catcher. He finished 4l behind Naval Intelligence when fourth of 9 at 9/1. We notice jockey Andrea Atzeni tenderly handling the colt through the final stages where the horse stayed on.

Today is a much less competitive affair and worth pointing out the winner of his debut run has since won at Listed level. This is a Class 5 at Redcar.

Trainer form and the introduction of Yuga Kawada

The trainer Roger Varian is struggling to replicate the form of last season but he is doing reasonably well, we sense he is about to kick off given the quality of horses in his care.

July:    11 winners from 58 runners for 19% (-21.29)
June:    16 winners from 73 runners for 22%  (+0.90)

Apart from the horse the interest of this race is the jockey booking of Yuga Kawada.Yuga Kawada. This man is hailed as the heir apparent to Japanese riding legend Yutaka Take and he wants to demonstrate his considerable talents to a British audience as he is due to spend part of the summer with Roger Varian. The 32-year-old, who has won Classics on Japanese A-listers Gentildonna, Harp Star and Makahiki, and also enjoyed top-level success on the classy Maurice, spent time with Varian last term, but did not manage a ride. Varian is hoping to put that right and supply the jockey, who could arrive next month and stay until September, with some ammunition.

Of his rivals

Calendimaggio was a staying-on third at Goodwood in May and should have more to offer. The form of that race is mixed but the second won a handicap off a mark of 76 since then. Runway also has scope after finishing second on debut at Newcastle but was probably flattered to get so close to an 109-rated rival.

Timeform

Calendimaggio improved on his debut effort when finishing a close third at Goodwood last time. It seems as though connections have saved him for similar ground which he should get here and he can take another step forward. Star Shield brings some strong form to the table and will be a tough rival. Runway may prove best of the remainder.

Value

We cannot be certain exactly what perceived value is but we were delighted to take the 13/8 and would have taken 5/4 given just one horse to beat. This race looks much weaker than the Newmarket race. Our view is that Simon Crisford took his runner Shikoba out of the race because of the Roger Varian horse and that would should go into the member's tracker file. He looks ready to win his next race.

Simon Crisford

We take this opportunity to remind our members of a few important statistics regarding Simon Crisford. His profit when having one runner at a Flat meeting since the start of the 2013 season is £60.09. When his horses run in first-time headgear in the same time-frame he makes a profit of £52.75 and when his horses run after a break they make a profit of £21.40.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.

 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 1  WIN: 1  LOSE: 0  S/R: 100%  PROFIT: +1.37pts

(1)       First or second: 100%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

21  Moyassar            2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.49   S/R  43%
20  Saxon Warrior       2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.49   S/R  45%
19  Sporting Chance     2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.49   S/R  47%
18  Kings Inn (E/W)     8.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.49   S/R  50%
17  Lotus Pond          1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +5.59   S/R  53%
16  Caius Marcius       2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.92   S/R  50%
15  Cracksman           1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.92   S/R  53%
14  Battaash            3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.92   S/R  57%
13  Settie Hill         1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +7.92   S/R  62%
12  Sea Of Class        1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +7.09   S/R  58%
11  New Winds           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +6.37   S/R  55%
10  Wufud               2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.46   S/R  50%
 9  Mutafani            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +6.46   S/R  56%
 8  Eyehaveagoodidea    1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.89   S/R  50%
 7  Aim Of Artemis      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +6.89   S/R  57%
 6  Move Swiftly        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.79   S/R  50%
 5  Red Mist (R4)       1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +6.79   S/R  60%
 4  Haul Away (R4)      1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.56  +6.06   S/R  50%
 3  Dream Today         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.50   S/R  33%
 2  Masar (+saver)     17.00  WIN   1.00  +7.50  +6.50   S/R  50%
 1  Settie Hill         1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00   S/R   0%

June SELECTIONS: 21  WIN: 9  LOSE: 12  S/R: 43%  PROFIT: +1.49pts

(U12113131411122217232)       First or second: 71.43%

NOTE: We secured 22/1 and 25/1 about Masar to 1pt win stakes but only recorded 16/1 to a 1/2pt stake. This seriously undervalues our profit for June but we know two of our members only secured 16/1. We would rather understate our performance. On this point our prices are neither best nor Betfair prices, we only nominate when the prices that are genuinely available, our members should be getting better prices so better profits!

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