DAHAWI 4.40 Kempton at 5/6

32Red On The App Store Novice Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) 6f

Pedigree: 38,000gns F, £100,000 Y; fourth foal; half-brother to winners Go On Go On Go On (5f-6f inc AW 2yo; RPR 100) and Ronnie The Rooster (7f/1m AW; 71); dam 5f AW 2yo winner (80), out of 1m5f winning sister to US 1m3f Grade 1 winner Subtle Power

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 4-21 for 19%  (10)
RPR: 71                      (9)                                      
Optimum Ground: Standard    (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f        (10)
Jockey: Luke Morris          (9)

The Racing Horse Composite: (48)
  
Next best: Brigadier 11/2

      Win Plc Run  RPR             Win Plc Run  RPR
Life   1   0   1    64    GF-F      1   0   1    64
2019   1   0   1    64    G         1   0   1    64
Dis    1   0   1    64    GS-HVY    0   0   0     0
Crs    0   0   9     0    6-15rns   1   0   1    64
Cl5    0   0   0     0    9.1-9.7   0   0   0     0

Duhawi is a half-brother to Go On Go On Go On, who won three times at 5f and 6f. The Pacafi won on his latest outing when the 6/4 favourite at Chelmsford City over 6f last month, beating Sea of Reality by a short head.

Green, then had to run wide to win, but hit the line hard

The betting suggested Dahawi was expected to make a winning start at Chelmsford last month and he duly obliged but he ran very green and was not in a great position to win but found loads well inside the final furlong to nick it. Further progress is certain and the result should be massively upgraded and adding those two factors together negates the penalty easily! He also has a plum draw to help him in stall 2, had to go wide to win on debut with a jockey who never looked balanced!

Trainer form

The Racing Post suggested Hugo Palmer is out of form with his horses with an x against his name on Postdata, but conscious of our Willie Mullins mistake and Andalusa we thought long and hard on this one. The trainer is 0-4 for February but what trainer is doing well this month? January shows 4-21 and a 19% and that is more than fair. We had a quick look at his previous February results thinking of flu injections and the like and this is what we found:

February 2019: 0 winners from  4 for  0% 
February 2018: 3 winners from 13 for 23%
February 2017: 3 winners from 11 for 27%
February 2016: 1 winner  from  5 for 20%

So it does not look a problem. Luke Morris and his flaying arms is not our favourite jockey but Sir Mark Prescott perseveres with him and he does not suffer fools, so we are probably missing something! He rode Duhawi on debut and won and Palmer retains him, The stall 2 with the benefit of the cutaway should be a big help to Morris and especially in the context of this race which does not look strong!

Of his rivals

Orange Blossom’s form deteriorated last year having started life in Pattern company. The less-exposed Fury And Fire is preferred to that one after a recent debut fourth at Lingfield when finishing in front of Turn To Rock. The others with experience have yet to threaten while but the  newcomer Brigadier is a half-brother to a couple of winners over further and despite that could be the one to stay into second place.

Timeform 

DAHAWI overcame inexperience to make a winning start at Chelmsford, making up plenty of ground to edge ahead late on, so it's reasonable to assume he can defy a penalty in what looks like another weak affair. Fury And Fire, who offered promise on his hurdling debut, could provide the main threat unless Orange Blossom returns from a break back in top form.

Value

The Pacafi drops from a Class 4 Novice to a Class 5, will come on for his debut run, has a perfect barrier draw. His main rival looks in need of further than 6f even on this slow track. If you believe the Racing Post then all the trainers in this race are out of form except Brigadier (Robert Cowell) and Simon Dow who trains the 150/1 shot Western Dynamisme. By the way Cowell is 4-21 since 1st January and in form but Palmer is 4-25 and out of form - nonsense! What we are leading to is we MUST have value and if I was a bookmaker would offer 8/13 tops about Dahawi, though 4/7 if Josephine Gordon was riding, if you get my drift?

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers. 

8  Dahawi          1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +1.13  S/R  75%
7  Clan Des Obeaux 1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.30  S/R  71%
6  Poetic Charm    1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  -0.10  S/R  67%
5  Dream Grand Val 1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -0.46  S/R  60%
4  Andalusa        2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.08  S/R  50%
3  Enthaar         3.75  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -0.08  S/R  67%
2  Gantier         1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.17  S/R 100% 
1  Min             1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.60  +0.60  S/R 100%

February SELECTIONS: 8  WIN: 6  LOSE: 2  S/R: 75%   PROFIT: +1.13pts

(11451111)      FINISHED First or Second (75%)

20  Lion Hearted     1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +0.06  S/R 55%
19  Nestor Park (S)  3.00  WIN   1.25  +1.75  -0.51  S/R 53%
18  Pym              1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  -2.26  S/R 50%
17  Umndeni          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  -2.98  S/R 47%
16  Adjali (S)       2.63  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -4.08  S/R 44%
15  Jahbath (R4)     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.68  -2.88  S/R 47%
14  Vandella         1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.56  S/R 43%
13  Laskadine        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  -2.56  S/R 46%
12  Downtown Getaway 1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  -2.96  S/R 42%
11  Mrs Hyde (S)     2.63  LOSE  1.40  -1.40  -3.87  S/R 36%
10  Manning Estate   2.63  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.47  S/R 40%
 9  Jammin Masters   1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.47  S/R 44%
 8  Festival Of Ages 2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.47  S/R 50%
 -  Birchdale (S)    2.75   NR   0.35  -0.35  +0.53  S/R 57%  
 7  Dares To Dream   2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.88  S/R 57%
 6  Court House (R4) 2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.85  +1.88  S/R 67%
 5  Queens Cave      1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.03  S/R 60%
 4  Torpillo         1.33  WIN   1.00  +0.33  +2.03  S/R 75%
 3  Reeth            2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +1.70  S/R 67%
 2  Military Law     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R 50%
 1  Ontheropes       2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

January SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 11  LOSE: 9  S/R: 55%   PROFIT: +0.06pts

(6111P12-2222112131111)      FINISHED First or Second (85.00%)

1 non-runner but with a losing stake-saver (-0.35)