Pedigree

£295,000 Chelt Dec 2018; 8th foal; closely related to bumper/2m hurdle/chase winner The Last Day, half-brother to winners Here I Am (2m1f/2m4f chase) and On The Shannon (2m4f/2m6f chase); dam once-raced sister to 2m-2m4f hurdle/chase winner Dantes Bank

Form of trainer is a concern but...

Members will know by now we do not back trainers who are considered out of form and we note Nicky Henderson is 3-33 for 9% in February which is 16% below his national average. Tomorrow we back one of his runners who is an odds-on shot so we need to explain why we are doing so!

By the way, it is inconceivable that Henderson will not score at least 10 winners in February and probably something closer to 13 so it is our belief the trainer will have between 7 and 10 winners within the next 11 days. WATCH THIS SPACE!

Held in high regard

Chantry House is held in high regard by the trainer. He is a winner of two hurdle races, a NH flat race, a chase and a point-to-point from 2m to 3m on ground varying from good to soft. His latest run was disappointing and third of 4 behind stablemate Fusil Raffles when beaten 14l as the 8/11 favourite at Cheltenham over 2m 5f on soft ground in December last year. We are expecting the 7yo to bounce back tomorrow after a 67 day break where it has been reported his in good form and jumping well.

Confidence booster ahead of Cheltenham

We note he is the current 12/1 favourite for the Coral Cup at the Festival but he will not be running in it, Henderson has made that clear, he is a 2m4f Novice. His entry in the Marsh Novice looks to be his spot where he is currently available at 25/1 nrnb.

He suffered his first defeat under rules when third in last season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle then impressed in brushing aside one other finisher on his chase debut over 2m3f at Ascot on soft ground and for whatever reason he didn't show his form when well beaten at Cheltenham in a Class 2 so the Class 4 at Wetherby looks a confidence booster

Impressive at Ascot

After his win at Ascot his trainer told us: "He is having a really good blow. Nico said he took his first blow coming out of Swinley Bottom but ours are a lot like that at the moment. It's tiring ground and I was pleased with his jumping. He just wanted to be a little bit careful going down the hill but these are big fences for a novice but once he was asked to go he was quite relaxed and he took it in his stride up the hill. We certainly wouldn't be going down in trip, that's for sure. I'd say that today is just about right for now. You have to be really sure of your horse when you come here first time and it's not something I always like doing, but his schooling had been good and he was good. He won't need to do that again and he learnt a lot today."

On his stable tour previously the trainer described the handsome son of Yeats as a beautiful horse, confirmed he has the size and scope to improve and is a natural, and whilst he is not Shishkin, he is looking forward to seeing him develop.

Trainer form

Last week we talked about the form of Nicky Henderson in some detail and that can be read here.

At Wetherby the trainer does particularly well and records 27-83 for a big 33% strike rate (-0.93). Nico de Boinville shows a course strike rate of 43%. Chantry House is the trainers only runner today and makes a long trip from Lambourn to Wetherby to win and the engagement has a decisive look about it! It is also the only ride for the stable jockey which was also interesting.

Contenders

The Wolf never looked comfortable at Chepstow 39 days ago and perhaps first-time cheekpieces will spark some improvement, while Coconut Splash was second behind the classy Messire Des Obeaux at Wincanton when last seen and deserves respect on that form and looks the main danger if the Pacafi is not ready.

Timeform

CHANTRY HOUSE let odds-on backers down last time but can get back on track here after a break. Coconut Splash is the obvious one to give him most to do unless first-time headgear has a revitalising effect on The Wolf.

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The Racing Horse shows the literal results of the Pacafi for 2020. These literal results show a worst-case scenario position which does not reflect the true value, practicality and strength of the strategy (or our personal profits), so we take this opportunity to explain why we record and highlight the finishing positions of the Pacafi, and the absolute relevance of finishing first or second.

FEBRUARY: 8  WIN: 7  LOSE: 1  S/R 88%  PROFIT: +5.46

(11113111)   FINISHED First or Second (87.50%)

JANUARY: 17  WIN: 12  LOSE: 5  S/R 71%  PROFIT: +5.91

(1212111111121F311)   FINISHED First or Second (88.24%)