HOMERIC 3.20 Lingfield at 11/8

 Betway Maiden Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-10 for 20%          (10)     
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%             (10)        
RPR: 78                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m2f                      (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 22%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Teagarden Jazz

Fair level of ability on debut

Homeric is a well-bred colt and a half-brother to 1m2f dirt Grade 1 winner Max Player and 7f turf Group 2 winner Seahenge. On debut he had a rough run through in the straight but showed a fair level of ability, and was the best of the newcomers. A better trip would have seen the colt go close.

Disappointed at Kempton

He was then a disappointing favourite when last seen at Kempton in December, though at 6/5 he was expected to win. After watching the race back many times it could be the step back in trip did not help. But the son of Ulysses still retains significant potential and can be given another chance today based on that very promising debut effort earlier that month. Our wager has stall 1 and that will help Rob Havlin find the rail and have a kind trip and then produce when appropriate.

Contenders

Nova Vida was not disgraced on her racecourse bow and she is entitled to improve for that experience, and Blenheim Belle are both newcomers to note, but Teagarden Jazz looks to be the main danger. The trainer of the main danger is not notable for his first time up juvenile winners and we note his 3yos racing on the Lingfield AW show just 5 winners from 43 for 12% over the past 5 years. Will he be forward enough to break a RPR of 80 plus to our colt? Timeform thinks he will but the reason stated looks flaky - has a reasonable pedigree, she might be worth chancing? Backing an unraced filly against the boys is not a profitable strategy.

Timeform

TEAGARDEN JAZZ has a reasonable pedigree and is in good hands, so she might be worth chancing on debut in a race that might not take much winning. Homeric is another obvious player if he can build on his debut at the second attempt and another step forward from Rikona would put her right in the mix.

Value

The 11/8 looks north of perceived value given our rationale. Of course we do not know how good the main danger Teagarden Jazz is but that one will have to beat the Pacafi on debut without a run and post a RPR of 82+.

As expected the 6/4 has become available with Bet365 and BetVictor so hoping the members who are following our betting advice has secured that price! We had priced this race up yesterday and thought 11/10 or 6/5 was a price we would be interested in, whilst the Charlton horse would be closer to 3/1.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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