Follow @BetVictor On Twitter Handicap (Class 5) 1m4f
Trainer Form: 6-16 for 38% (10)
National Average: 17% (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA (10)
RPR: 91 (10)
Distance: 1m4f (10)
Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Jockey: Luke Morris (10)
National Average: 9% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 16% (10)
Total: (100)
Beaten at 2/7 last time out
Blindedbythelights is a typical Mark Prescott staying improver when stepped up in trip and he left his previous form well behind when winning a 7-runner handicap at Yarmouth over 1m3½f last week. He was then better than the bare result when beaten a short odds at Lingfield on the AW over 1m4f just 3 days ago finding trouble at a crucial stage. It looked like a car crash. If over the quick turnaround he will be very hard to beat, and we have secured 6/4 about a horse that really must start shorter.
Forget last run - track and ride did not suit!
It looked a mistake (in our humble opinion) to run the Pacafi at the turning tight track of Lingfield AW though it is true to say Luke Morris got himself into a tangle during the race. He was easily the best horse in the race and now goes to Newbury to regain the winning thread. Newbury is one of the fairest courses in the country and its galloping nature makes it ideal for the big, long-striding type, so there is unlikely to be any trouble in running this time.
Trainer Form
The past month shows Prescott at 12-25 for 48% (+9.07) so bang in form. Arc winning jockey Luke Morris rides and will want to make up for the defeat last time out for owners Middleham Park Racing. The jockeys combination with Prescott shows 110-670 for 16% over the past 5 years. Given the type of horses the trainer often acquires, big staying horses with big strides, it is strange he does not send a few of them to Newbury, but his figures show 0-3 over the last 5 years. We have not marked that as a negative on our composite board, there must be another reason he does not visit there, but we do not know what that is...
Note: Hedonista has to give 8lbs to our improver so a very big ask for this filly.
Contenders
Hedonista kept on well to break her maiden tag at the second time of asking over an extended 1m4f at Newcastle last month and the daughter of Ulysses looks the main danger. Her dam is a full-sister to Ribblesdale and Lancashire Oaks runner-up Lustrous, so her pedigree suggests she will be able to act on turf and there is likely more to come from Ed Walker's inmate. Scintillante is taken to step forward on his handicap debut and rates a place chance.
Timeform
BLINDEDBYTHELIGHTS suffered a shock defeat at Lingfield earlier in the week but found nothing going his way there and should take plenty of beating turned out again quickly under a penalty. Great Bedwyn ran well in a strong event at York last time and is respected dropping in grade, whilst Scintillante and Hedonista rate as potential improvers on their handicap bows.
Value
The 6/4 looks north of perceived value based on his win and place last time out, where he was backed into 2/7 before finding trouble on a course that did not suit!
Those that have taken the 6/4 which was easily available, can now sell at 2.06 on the Betfair Exchange to lock in a risk free profit (20.12)
***
8 Blinded'lights R4 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.35 +2.02 S/R 63%
7 Aurora Vega 1.36 WIN 1.00 +0.36 +0.67 S/R 57%
6 Mojeyrr 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.31 S/R 50%
5 Wind In Your Sail 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.31 S/R 60%
4 Basford 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.16 S/R 50%
3 Je Ne Sais Quoi 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.16 S/R 67%
2 Military Order 6.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.09 S/R 50%
1 Ghara 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.91 S/R 100%
June: 8 WIN: 5 LOSE: 3 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +2.02
(1L121L11) FINISHED First or Second (75.00%)
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21 Ocean Runner 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.31 S/R 48%
20 Tahiyra 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -3.31 S/R 50%
19 Ajp Kingdom 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -3.81 S/R 47%
18 Jaytee R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -4.48 S/R 44%
17 Horantzau D'Airy 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -5.56 S/R 41%
16 Dubai Dawn 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -6.09 S/R 38%
15 Belsito 3.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -5.09 S/R 40%
14 Almaty Star 1.73 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.09 S/R 43%
13 Silver Lady (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.30 -1.30 -3.09 S/R 46%
12 Wedgewood 1.73 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.79 S/R 50%
11 Shayekh 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.79 S/R 56%
10 Aviewtosea 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.21 S/R 60%
9 Choccabloc 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +1.21 S/R 67%
8 Ballyporeen 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +0.41 S/R 63%
7 Coppice 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -0.16 S/R 57%
6 Adayar R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -0.66 S/R 50%
5 Native Trail 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.74 S/R 40%
4 Hey Lyla 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.74 S/R 50%
3 Trueshan 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.27 S/R 33%
2 Spartan Arrow 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luxembourg 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
May: 21 WIN: 10 LOSE: 11 S/R: 48% LOSS: -4.31
(51412111132333511119) FINISHED First or Second (61.90%)
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16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.83
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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