The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Wednesday 8 November 2023. There is a 7-race card. The going is expected to be heavy.

CHEPSTOW Racecourse Template - FREE sign up!

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 61-122   50%   +2.64    31-113   27%   -22.42
Chase  8-17     47%   -2.57    50-145   34%    -1.56
NHF    13-44    30%  -11.06    0-0	 	
TOTAL  82-183   45%  -10.99    81-258   31%   -23.98

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  52-201   26%   -33.60   +2%   5
Evan Williams (11%)  24-219   11%   -27.37   +0%   6
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-120   13%   -39.04   -2%   2
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 15-115   13%   -43.52   -5%   0
V Williams (16%)     14-189   16%    +0.12   +0%   1

HOT TRAINERS 09/10/2023 to 07/11/2023        +/-   E
S Thomas (21%)	    5-14    36%	   +2.50    +15%   2
Kerry Lee (18%)	    3-9	    33%	   +2.00    +15%   1
K Bailey (16%)	    8-29    28%	   +3.60    +12%   1
Hobbs & White (14%) 5-20    25%    -1.00    +11%   3
P Nicholls (24%)    15-63   24%	   -3.95     +0%   5
 
COLD LIST TRAINERS      SAW                        E 
Christian Williams (9%)  43    75 days             2          

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)  37-140   26%   -41.95    +3%   5  
Adam Wedge (13%)    17-149   11%   -18.37    -2%   4  
Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-100   15%   -25.63    +0%   2
Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-70    20%    +5.47    +0%   0
Ben Jones (14%)	    12-61    20%   +15.11    +6%   2

HOT JOCKEYS 09/10/2023 to 07/11/2023         +/-   R
S T-Davies (15%) 15-58	 26%	-3.50       +11%   4
F Gingell (16%)	 3-12	 25%	-1.00        +9%   2
G Sheehan (17%)	 11-49	 22%	+1.00        +5%   2
H Cobden (23%)	 15-72	 21%	+8.05        -2%   5
 
COLD LIST JOCKEY  SAW                              R  
Jamie Moore (14%)  24     31 days                  1  
                           
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (14%) 11-56   20%    +2.12    +6%   1
John P McManus (17%) 10-63   16%    +7.40    -1%   2
Colm Donlon (26%)    6-13    46%   +12.93   +20%   0
K & A Brooks (19%)   5-12    42%   +10.87   +23%   0
David Brace (12%)    5-23    22%    +8.00   +10%   0

Chepstow Fixtures:
Wednesday 8 November 2023
Friday 24 November 2023
Saturday 9 December 2023

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 163-441 for 36.96% so nearly +5% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 82-183 for 45% whilst handicap winning favourites score 81-258 for 31%.

TRAINERS: Paul Nicholls (24%) scores 26% at the course and has 5 runners including TAHMURAS 1.30, JACKPOT D'ATHOU 2.05, HURRICANE DANNY 2.40, JACOBIN & MOUNT GAY RUN 4.25. Almost certain to have at least 1 winner!

Evan Williams (11%) has 6 runners and scored with a 20/1 shot at the course last week, 0-14 since. His runners include OUT OF OFFICE 1.30, ASK BREWSTER 2.05, MINELLA BLUEWAY 2.40, PAGEANT MATERIAL 3.15, CHAMPAGNE RHYTHM 3.50 & THE CYPRIOT 4.25

Christian Williams (9%) trainer 75 days since a winner, has winter stayers in his stable but still a concern, he has 2 runners at the course. He has recently employed Jamie Moore (14%) to ride for him but the partnership are currently 0-7 and MOLLY SANDERSON 2.05 is his only ride.

JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) rides the course brilliantly scoring at 26% and on Wednesday has 5 rides of obvious interest at Chepstow. His rides include TAHMURAS 1.30, JACKPOT D'ATHOU 2.05, HURRICANE DANNY 2.40, COUNTRY KITTEN 3.15 & JACOBIN 4.25. Stop at a winner?

OWNERS: William Rucker (14%) has one runner in OUT OF OFFICE 1.30 trained by Evan Williams and ridden by Adam Wedge.

J P McManus (17%) has 2 runners including JONGLEUR D'ETOILES 2.40 & JACOBIN 4.25 trained by Neil Mulholland and Paul Nicholls respectively.

RED FLAG: Sam Thomas (21%) after a slow start to his training career he is now showing exceptional placement skills. He started training in November 2015 and was 0-31 up to April 2016, then 1-51 up to November 2016 and 2-81 up to April 2017. Since then his career has taken off. As we go to post he shows 74-359 for 21% (+11.42). If we excuse his pre-April 2017 figures, he scores 72-278 for 26% and a strike rate higher than Paul Nicholls.

Breaking his figures down we note a specialised area:

Hurdle	28-164	 17%   -63.11	  £310,931	
Chase	33-131	 25%   +70.07     £862,967	
NHF	13-64	 20%	+4.47      £80,889	
TOTAL	74-359	 21%   +11.42   £1,254,788	

His chasers are scoring at a big 25% strike rate, though 21% for NHF is pretty good also. He has reasonable figures at Chepstow 9-62 for 15% (-13.95). There is interest on his visits north to Wetherby 2-3 for 67% (+10.63), Carlisle 3-6 for 50% (+8.70) and Kelso 2-4 for 50% (+2.63) and his favoured jockeys at this stage appears to be Sam Twiston-Davies 27-134 for 20% (-10.74) and Charlie Deutsch 20-104 for 19% (+8.78). He has 2 runners today including CAPTAIN WALLACE 2.40 & ROCKING MAN 4.25.

After Good Risk At All's win at Carlisle the trainer told us: "We've got some fabulous horses. They're a lovely bunch this term!"

Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald