REBEL'S ROMANCE 7.30 Kempton at 4/7

Unibet Wild Flower Stakes (Listed) 1m3f219y

Pedigree

Fourth foal; half-brother to winners Dubai Beauty (7f 2yo; RPR 103) and Petticoat (7f/1m; 102); dam Listed-placed 7f 2yo winner (stayed 1m2f; 101), sister to UAE 1m6f Group 3 winner Volcanic Sky out of 1m2f/1m4f Group 3 winner

The Racing Horse Composite 

Trainer Form: 18-59 for 31%         (10)
National average: 29%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 33%             (10)
OR: 120                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard/good       (10)      
Optimum Distance: 1m4f              (10)
Jockey: William Buick               (10)
National Average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 32%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Godolphin Comments 

Rebel's Romance is a half-brother to winners Dubai Beauty (7f 2yo; RPR 103) and Petticoat (7f/1m; 102); overcame greenness to win 1m Newcastle novice stakes on debut in October 2020 and followed up in a good time at at Kempton (1m) in November; won the UAE 2,000 Guineas trial at Meydan (1m) in January 2021, beating Mouheeb, with the pair 7l clear; only finished fourth in the Saudi Derby at Riyadh (1m) the following month but bounced back to winning form in the Group 2 UAE Derby (9.5f) when next seen in March (by five and a half lengths); poor form in Meydan in early 2022 but back to winning form in Listed Fred Archer Stakes in June 2022 at Newmarket (1m4f); followed up in Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood (1m4f) in July and completed hat-trick in Group 1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin (1m4f) at Hoppegarten in August; made it 4-4 on turf when winning a Group 1 over 12f at Cologone (good to soft) in September; impressive winner of Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf (12f) at Keeneland in November; disappointing on first start of 2023 in Sheema Classic at Meydan; unseated in Grade 2 at Saratoga in July and a bit disappointing at Belmont in Grade 1 on next start in October. 

Easily sets the standard and the AW suits

The Pacafi is a high-class globetrotting Group 1 horse now racing in a Listed Race at Kempton, and though below his best this year he sets a tall standard on his peak figures. Click the link below to watch a couple of his quality Group 1 wins!

REBEL'S ROMANCE

Charlie Appleby reigns supreme on this Kempton surface scoring at 33% so +4% above his big national average of 29%.

His charge is 4-7 on the AW and he has been drawn 2 so William Buick can take a sit on the rail and produce his ride at the cutaway to win. We are reminded of what his trainer said about him last November regarding AW surfaces: "Rebel's Romance has turned himself round to be fair - probably telling me to switch him to the turf. Saying that, I watched him training on the dirt two days ago and said to the team I wish I was running him on the dirt - he loved it. He's a lovely big horse and time has helped him."

Contender

Goldspur is a useful gelding. He was a length 3rd of 6 to Westover in the Classic Trial at Sandown (10f, good, 6/5) when last seen 20 months ago. He has since been gelded and retains potential though Rebel's Romance is clearly the stable number one!

 Timeform View

 REBEL'S ROMANCE failed to land the odds in a Grade 1 contest in the US last time, but he is the clear form pick back in calmer waters here and his record on the all-weather (4-7) is also compelling. Base Note did the job well at Chelmsford last month and he could be the one to follow the selection home, with Salt Bay best of the rest.

Perceived Value

We got into a tangle but have taken the 4/7 with Betfair and this looks a great price, we would have taken shorter! On a personal note have staked 2pts but only 1pt advised to members.

PACAFI Results 2023.