The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 28 February 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 4 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes, a Novice and a Maiden Stakes Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   104-265	39%   -47.86   38-104	 37%	+3.21
3yo   126-254	50%    -8.37   131-425	 31%   -52.71
4yo+   43-101	43%    -4.64   221-704	 31%   -70.79
TOTAL 273-620	44%   -60.87   390-1233	 32%  -120.29

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  77-462   17%   +16.41   +2%   0  
Charlie Appleby (29%) 67-195   34%   -33.27   +5%   1   
Roger Varian (20%)    58-247   23%   -29.35   +3%   1
Richard Hannon (11%)  46-413   11%   -97.25   +0%   0    
J & T Gosden (21%)    41-200   21%   -40.68   +0%   1

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023                +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  25-142  18%   -14.90    +3%   0      
Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-46   35%    +2.27    +6%   1   
Roger Varian (20%)    16-66   24%    -6.81    +4%   1    
James Fanshawe (14%)  14-61   23%    +0.75    +9%   0       
J & T Gosden (21%)    14-65   22%   -12.26    +1%   1

HOT TRAINERS 29/01/2024 to 27/02/2024         +/-   E 
Charlie Appleby (29%) 19-42   45%    -2.00   +16%   1
James Ferguson (14%)   3-9    33%    -0.81   +19%   1
J & T Gosden (21%)     4-14   29%    -1.00    +8%   1

COLD TRAINER    SAW                                 E
George Boughey	 22   23 days                       1
John Ryan (9%)   19   53 days                       1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
David Probert (12%)  87-731   12%    -37.66   +0%   2
Oisin Murphy (19%)   77-385   20%    -47.96   +1%   5 
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 73-539   14%    -98.13   +1%   3     
William Buick (23%)  71-300   24%    -62.93   +1%   0
Hollie Doyle (15%)   70-497   14%   -116.55   -1%   3
 
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023                 +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)   32-156   21%   -15.86    +2%   5  
David Probert (12%)  23-147   16%   +75.85    +4%   2    
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 22-147   15%   -48.67    +2%   3    
William Buick (23%)  21-89    24%   -15.07    +1%   0  
Rossa Ryan (16%)     18-128   14%   -29.53    -2%   4

HOT JOCKEYS 29/01/2023 to 27/02/2024          +/-   R
Marco Ghiani (14%)  8-34    24%	   +2.13     +10%   1
Oisin Murphy (19%) 14-64    22%	   +6.00      +3%   5
Rossa Ryan (16%)   19-93    20%	  +12.00      +4%   4
Jack Doughty (11%)  4-22    18%	   +8.75      +7%   2

COLD JOCKEYS           SAW                          R
Christian Howarth (8%)  68   109 days               1
Josephine Gordon (7%)   57    94 days               1  

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     95-329   29%   -65.44    +4%   1
King Power (13%)     23-123   19%   -25.94    +6%   1  
Shadwell Est (24%)   18-62    29%   +10.88    +5%   0
Opulence Thoro (18%) 14-47    30%   +10.44   +12%   1
Juddmonte (23%)	     14-54    26%    -7.26    +3%   0
    
FIXTURES:					
Saturday 2 March 2024	
Wednesday 6 March 2024	
Wednesday 13 March 2024	

FORTHCOMING TEMPLATES
Taunton (Thursday 29 February 2024)
Saturday tbc...

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some real substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 663-1853 for 35.78% and a level stake loss of -181.16. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a 12% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 126-254 for 50% (-8.37) ← ← ←
WORST CATEGORY: 4yo HANDICAPS 221-704 for 31% (-70.79) ←

TRAINERS: From our leader board top trainers Charlie Appleby (29%), Roger Varian (20%) and J & T Gosden (21%) each have a single runner for this meeting and their runners must be processed. That said, all 3 runners run in the 3yo Novice and have to beat Suspicion for Olly Sangster, and whilst the colt looks a big scopey improver, he is drawn 11 of 14 so the first two furlongs so finding a pitch might be difficult. 

CHARLIE APPLEBY has won with his last 4 runners at Kempton and is 7-10 for 70% at the course for 2024 (+2.97). Just incredible!

JOCKEYS: Oisin Murphy (19%) looks the jockey to follow at this meeting and has 5 rides including MUTASAWI 5.30, SUSPICION 6.30, UMBERTO 7.00, THOUGHTFUL GIFT 7.30 & MCCAULEY'S TAVERN 8.00. Stop at a winner?

Jack Mitchell (17%) has a good chance of a win double re SOLDIERS DESIGN 5.30 & CONDOR PASA 6.30. Rossa Ryan (16%) has 4 rides, Danny Muscutt (13%) has 3 & David Probert (12%) has 2 and one can reasonably expect this quartet along with Oisin Murphy to dominate the card!

OWNERS: It is always worthwhile processing the entries of the top owners at a particular racecourse, an area that is totally overlooked. There are 3 runners of interest today.

Godolphin (25%) have a runner in debutant CREATIVE STORY 6.30 trained by Charlie Appleby and to be ridden by David Probert.

King Power (13%) also have a single entry in UMBERTO 7.00 trained by K P De Foy and ridden by Oisin Murphy.

Opulence Thoroughbreds also have a single runner in DEVOIRS CHOICE 6.30 trained by Ed Walker and to be ridden by Saffie Osborne.

RED FLAG: Roger Varian has a national average of 20%, is 3-17 for 18% for February, but note 5 of his losers finished in second place so 8-17 finishing first or second for 47% suggesting his horses are well. He scores 23% at Kempton over the past 5-years but 0-11 at the course this year. In racing we know nothing is due,but the mathematics denote an impending upturn! Today, the trainer runs the 3yo Siyouni colt CONDOR PASA 6.30 in the Novice Race and he looks nailed on for a place finish at least!

The race is competitive but CONDOR PASA was an eyecatcher when backed to win when second favourite at 5/2 on his Kempton debut 49 days ago racing against the impressive El Cordobes and faring best of the newcomers. He is a half-brother to a couple of winners over this trip, and almost certain to step forward from his debut run with stall 4 and Jack Mitchell to help.

What is perceived value? Not sure, if we can secure something close to 7/2 we will definitely wager in the race with a stake saver on the Charlie Appleby trained Creative Story. Suspicion is the current favourite at 15/8 and whilst he looks set to run well, we believe him to be a false favourite. It looks a fabulous race with the Gosden's running one for Michael Tabor, though this 3yo has already been gelded so the market will tell us more.

THE RACING HORSE eBOOK

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