The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Saturday 6 April 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 3 Handicaps, a Fillies' Listed Race, 2 Condition Stakes Races and a Novice Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   104-266	39%   -48.86   38-104	 37%	+3.21
3yo   132-266	50%    -7.73   137-429	 32%   -45.23
4yo+   45-104	43%    -3.44   231-735	 31%   -71.79
TOTAL 281-636	44%   -60.03   406-1268	 32%  -113.80

Winning Favourites (Current Year)
2yo    0-1	 0%   -1.00	0-0	  0%    +0.00
3yo   16-32	50%   +1.23	12-25	 48%	+4.70
4yo+   4-10	40%   +0.45	32-83	 39%	+4.68
TOTAL 20-43	47%   +0.68	44-108	 41%	+9.38

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  82-478   17%   +33.44   +2%   4
Charlie Appleby (29%) 68-201   34%   -31.27   +5%   2   
Roger Varian (20%)    60-251   24%   -26.73   +4%   2
Richard Hannon (11%)  47-423   11%  -101.25   +0%   1    
J & T Gosden (21%)    41-209   20%   -49.68   +0%   1 

TOP TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2024                  +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%) 14-47   30%   +33.93    +15%   4
Charlie Appleby (29%) 8-16   50%    +4.96    +21%   2
Eve J-Houghton (12%)  5-13   38%    +4.45    +26%   1
David Evans (11%)     5-20   25%  +145.58    +14%   0
James Tate (16%)      4-4   100%    +9.17    +84%   1

HOT TRAINERS 07/03/2024 to 05/04/2024         +/-   E
James Tate (16%)      4-8    50%   +11.70    +34%   1
Eve J-Houghton (12%)  5-12   42%    +2.50    +30%   1
Richard Hughes (14%) 11-29   38%    +6.00    +24%   3
Olly Murphy (13%)    14-40   35%    +2.80    +22%   1
William Haggas (22%)  3-9    33%    +3.00    +11%   2
Roger Varian (20%)    4-15   27%    +2.00     +7%   2
James Owen (23%)      9-37   24%    -2.00     +1%   3
S & E Crisford (20%)  4-17   24%    +3.00     +4%   1
A M Balding (15%)     9-40   23%    -3.00     +8%   4
       
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
David Probert (12%)  90-742   12%    -34.16   +0%   5  
Oisin Murphy (19%)   85-412   21%    -49.14   +2%   7 
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 74-548   14%    -98.13   +0%   3    
William Buick (23%)  71-303   23%    -65.93   +0%   4
Hollie Doyle (15%)   71-513   14%   -124.55   -1%   3

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2024                 +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%) 14-48    29%	    -5.92    +10%   7
David Probert (12%) 9-62    15%	    +0.47     +3%   5
Rossa Ryan (16%)    9-67    13%	   -24.77     -3%   0
Jack Mitchell (17%) 8-39    21%	    -4.85     +4%   0
William Buick (23%) 6-9	    67%	    +1.76    +44%   4

HOT JOCKEYS 07/03/2024 to 05/04/2024          +/-   R
James Doyle (19%)     4-15    27%    -2.27    +8%   4
Kieran Shoemark (12%) 8-33    24%   +35.25   +12%   2
 
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     96-338   28%   -66.44    +3%   2
King Power (13%)     24-126   19%   -26.31    +6%   0 
Shadwell Est (24%)   18-66    27%    +6.88    +3%   0
Opulence Thoro (18%) 14-50    28%    +7.44   +10%   1
Juddmonte (23%)	     14-55    25%    -8.26    +3%   0
    
Fixtures:							 
Saturday 6 April 2024
Wednesday 10 April 2024
Monday 15 April 2024	
Wednesday 17 April 2024	
Wednesday 1 May 2024	

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates
KEMPTON AW (Saturday 6 April 2024)
LINGFIELD AW (Monday 8 April 2024)
KEMPTON AW (Wednesday 10 April 2024)
CHEPSTOW NH (Saturday 13 April 2024)

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some real substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 684-1899 for 36.02% and a level stake loss of -174.894. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a 12% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 132-266 for 50% (-7.73)
WORST CATEGORY: 4yo HANDICAPS 231-735 for 31% (-71.79)

The best category versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 19% and a number cemented into our thought processes!

TRAINERS: This is a fixture where the UK top trainers are involved. TRH found the 2024 figures interesting and note Charlie Appleby (29%) is 8-16 at the course so far this year for 50%. He looks set for a win double with DEVOTED QUEEN 3.45 & NOTABLE SPEECH 4.25 (2,000 Guineas entry), both to be ridden by William Buick. Hopefully at the close of play tonight he will stand at 10-18 for 56%.

Regarding winning numbers top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (15%) and he has 4 runners including OLD HARROVIAN 2.40, SPIRIT MIXTER 3.15, MARCELLA 3.45 & DESERT COP 4.55

JOCKEYS: Top jockey at the course David Probert (12%) has 5 rides, Danny Muscutt (13%) and Hollie Doyle (15%) both have 3 rides each.

Oisin Murphy (19%) is 29% at the course this year and has a full set of 7 rides including AURIC 1.30, ZOUKY 2.05, OLD HARROVIAN 2.40, SPIRIT MIXER 3.15, MARCELLA 3.45, WITNESS STAND 4.25 & DESERT COP 4.55.

William Buick (23%) is 6-9 for 67% at the course this year and he has 4 rides including ADELAISE 2.05, DUC DE KENT 2.40, DEVOTED QUEEN 3.45 & NOTABLE SPEECH 4.25, a win double beckons.

OWNERS: The top owners at a particular course are often a good source of winners and this applies again tomorrow. Godolphin (25%) have 2 entries courtesy of Charlie Appleby. They include: DEVOTED QUEEN, a 3yo Kingman filly and a half-sister to winners One Ruler (7f/1m 2yo inc Group 3; RPR 113), Cannon Rock (1m2f; 87) and Tolmount (UAE 1m dirt; 82); comfortable winner of 7f fillies' maiden at Newmarket in October 2023. 

NOTABLE SPEECH, a 3yo Dubawi colt who is a first foal; dam 6f AW 2yo winner/UAE Oaks second (RPR 99), half-sister to winners Wild Beauty (6f-1m inc Canadian 2yo Grade 1), Desert Wisdom (UAE 1m Group 3/7f dirt) and Ottoman Court (6f AW 2yo) out of 7f (Listed)/1m winner; impressive winner of 1m Kempton maiden on debut in January 2024 and followed that up at the same venue the following month in a conditions race.

Opulence Thoroughbreds (18%) also have a great chance of a winner with AZURE ANGEL 5.00 who is improving at a rate of knots. This 4yo Harry Angle filly has only had 6 runs to date and trained by Roger Varian and to be ridden by James Doyle. The owners score 28% at Kempton and this filly is expected to score or at least go close!

RED FLAG: TRH reminded members on Wednesday there were 4 3yo non-handicap races with the likelihood of returning at least 2 winning favourites as per our composite above. In pursuant to our advice there were 2 winners! Today there are another 3 non-handicap races, 2 of which are Pacafis, so we are expecting to score above 50%. The other non-handicap race is a 4yo+ Listed race and that category scores at 43%.

BY THE WAY: Over the past 5 years at Kempton 3yo & 4yo+ winning favourites in non-handicaps score 177-370 for a big 47.84%. Once again, a figure that should be in the forefront of our betting thought processes!

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There is not a rationale for our 2 Pacafi today, please see:

 CHARLIE APPLEBY at KEMPTON & NEWMARKET

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