The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Tuesday 14 May 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 6 Handicaps and a Maiden for 2yos. The going is expected to be good to soft. Light rain showers expected...
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 16-43 37% -7.99 5-15 33% +0.75
3yo 23-43 53% -2.58 37-84 44% +16.54
4yo+ 2-7 29% +2.00 56-171 33% +6.59
TOTAL 41-93 44% -8.57 98-270 36% +23.88
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
Tony Carroll (9%) 18-162 11% -13.30 +2% 3
Rod Millman (12%) 15-104 14% -24.62 +2% 2
Ralph Beckett (18%) 13-36 36% +12.58 +18% 0
John O'Shea (9%) 13-113 12% -41.12 +3% 6
David Evans (11%) 12-113 11% -23.05 +0% 2
HOT TRAINERS 14/04/2024 to 13/05/2024 +/- E
Newland & Insole (19%) 12-44 27% -1.00 +8% 1
Green & Guierrero (18%) 15-61 25% +0.25 +7% 1
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R
Hollie Doyle (15%) 19-77 25% -1.00 +10% 3
Gina Mangan (10%) 16-98 16% -21.76 +6% 5
Rossa Ryan (16%) 13-73 18% -24.10 +2% 6
Tom Marquand (15%) 12-58 21% +19.66 +6% 4
Charles Bishop (10%) 12-73 16% -2.67 +6% 0
HOT JOCKEYS 14/04/2024 to 13/05/2024 +/- R
Saffie Osborne (12%) 19-77 25% +12.77 +13% 1
David Probert (12%) 15-86 17% +22.33 +5% 3
Tom Marquand (15%) 15-88 17% +4.12 +2% 4
COLD LIST JOCKEY SAW R
Hollie Doyle (15%) 30 9 days 3
Finley Marsh (13%) 28 18 days 2
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
Cross Racing Club (10%) 7-40 18% -2.62 +8% 2
Tidball & Millman (16%) 5-13 38% +10.00 +22% 0
James & Llewellyn (16%) 4-12 33% +6.62 +17% 0
Hannah Jones (19%) 4-13 31% +4.50 +12% 0
S R Whistance (15%) 4-13 31% +31.50 +16% 0
Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures:
Tuesday 14 May 2024
Friday 31 May 2024
Saturday 8 June 2024
Forthcoming Racecourse Templates:
Newmarket (Friday 17 May 2024)
Newmarket (Saturday 18 May 2024)
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. All races at up to a mile are run on the straight course. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground.
FAVOURITES: Winning Favourites at Chepstow over the past 5 years show 139-363 for 38.29% and a level stake profit of +15.31 to SP so around +5% above the national average. All categories produce decent figures albeit from a small sample, though best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps show 23-43 for 53% (-2.58).
TRAINERS: John O'Shea (9%) has 6 runners here tomorrow but with such a low strike rate it is hard to enthuse. He has a couple of interest racing in the 8.10 and could win that particular race given the insightful jockey bookings.
TRAINER 14-DAY FORM: There are 3 trainers with good 14-day form including leading trainer at the course Tony Carroll who shows 8-41 for 20% which is measured against his national average of 9%. Newland & Insole (12%) show 5-19 for 26% and Greenall & Guierriero (18%) score 5-17 for 29%.
JOCKEYS: Rossa Ryan (16%) has 6 rides including ROSE FANDANGO 5.40, BANTRY 6.10, SONIC SI 6.40, SOME NIGHTMARE 7.40, ROMANOVICH 8,10 & LOUISIANA BAY 8.40. Once again he is in great form scoring 10-50 for 20% (+9.89) over the past 14 days. Stop at a winner?
Tom Marquand (15%) rides 21% at the course and has 4 rides, they include THOUGHTFUL GIFT 5.10, BANTZ 6.40, RHUBARB 7.10 & THE PUG 8.40.
Hollie Doyle (15%) is in the doldrums. She shows 30 rides since a win over the past 9 days. Her last winner was on a 9yo scoring at Newmarket in a Group 2 after a most brilliant ride! She has 3 rides tomorrow including VINGEGAARD 6.40, CONNIE'S ROSE 7.40 & MARCHETTI 8.10. From now on her rides should be filtered and processed, we doubt she will reach 0-40. She scores 25% at Chepstow so a massive +10% above her national average!
OWNERS: The Cross Racing Club (10%) are the top owners at Chepstow and they have 2 runners in the penultimate race including ROMANOVICH & STELLA HOGAN 8.10. Trained by John O'Shea the former is to be ridden by Rossa Ryan whilst the latter by apprentice Sean D Bowen who claims 5lbs. Romanovich won this race last year on good to soft ground and gets the same conditions today.
RED FLAG: The 6.40 races is a Maiden Race for juveniles and we flag the rival trainers with their wins to runners and strike rate for 2024 so far. As always these figures will surprise: BANTZ (William Haggas 0-3 for 0%), CAYMAN TAI (R Hannon 3-13 for 23%), DANDY G BOY (Newland & Insole 1-1 for 100%), VINGEGAARD (A Watson 0-5 for 0%), SONIC SI (D Loughane 1-12 for 13%), CHALENA (D Evans 1-19 for 5%) & BORO QUEEN (D Evans 1-19 for 5%). Bantz and Cayman Tai are two likely types on paper and the market will tell us more. That said, William Haggas (22%) scores 23% at Chepstow but Richard Hannon (11%) registers a miserable 4-81 for just 5% at the course and a massive -59.00 to level stakes!
Trainer win first start 2yo past year
W Haggas: 8-59 for 14%
R Hannon: 6-86 for 7%
A Watson: 6-41 for 15%
William Haggas is yet to have a first start 2yo winner at Chepstow whilst Richard Hannon has scored 1 from 11, but Archie Watson is 2-4 for 50% (+19.50) with first start 2yos at Chepstow and 3-4 for 75% placed (+25.98). Another stand-out figure is that Watson shows 6-23 for 26% (+15.46) with juveniles at Chepstow over the past 5 years!
PERTINENCE & PERTAINING
5.40 (Winning favs: 33%)
ENZOS ANGEL (N Mulholland) beaten favourite last time out, Marco Ghiani rides
MAYZ (J Gallagher) good late work when 2nd off this mark at Brighton recently, return to stiffer track helps her. Darragh Keenan rides
EYE OF THE WATER (R Harris) weighted to win 62 > 58, Liam Keniry rides
6.10 (Winning favs: 33%)
CEILIDH (G Baker) beaten favourite last time out, Aiden Keeley rides
THOUGHTFUL GIFT (J Jones) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides
STAR OF ST JAMES (I Furtado) weighted to win 52 > 46, Marco Ghiani rides
RAVENGLASS (A Wintle) weighted win 67 > 59, found one too good on each of his last two starts at Bath, Gina Mangan rides
6.40 (Winning favs: 37%)
BANTZ (W Haggas) 45,000 gns yearling, Kodiac colt. Brother to 2yo 5.5f winner No More Regrets and half-brother to 5f winner Seeingisbelieving and winner up to 6f Ziggy's Dream. Dam 9f/9.4f winner. Tom Marquand rides
SONIC SI (D Loughnane) from Class 2 to Class 5 so a huge drop, first time tongue strap, Rossa Ryan rides
VINGEGAARD (A Watson) trainer 26% with juveniles at this course, Hollie Doyle rides
7.10 (Winning favs: 33%)
JOY CHOI (M Saunders) beaten favourite last time out, consistent, first time cheek pieces, William Carson rides
RHUBARB (R Price) 3-time C&D winner, weighted to win 58 > 54, Tom Marquand rides
LOUISE TREIZE (D Faulkner) C&D winner now weighted to win, Laura Coughlan rides
7.40 (Winning favs: 33%)
BEYOND EQUAL (W Kittow) beaten favourite last time out, Callum Shepherd rides
CONNIE'S ROSE (G Harris) 4-time course winner, Hollie Doyle rides
BIG BARD (G & J Moore) beaten favourite last time out, Jack Doughty rides
AIRSHOW (B Millman) weighted to win 78 > 70, Oliver Searle rides
SOME NIGHTMARE (J O'Shea) weighted to win 74 > 65, Rossa Ryan rides
8.10 (Winning favs: 33%)
LETTER OF THE LAW (J O'Shea) weighted to win 50 > 47, Georgia Dobie rides
DIAMONDSINTHESAND (A Wintle) cosy 7f winner on AW in November, though 0-14 on turf unfortunate not to win at Ffos Las over 6f last July, Finley Marsh rides
DESTINY'S SPIRIT (D Ffrench-Davis) weighted to win 63 > 46, Gina Mangan rides
8.40 (Winning favs: 33%)
LOUISIANA BAY (J Jones) beaten favourite last time out, unproven on turf. Rossa Ryan rides
THE PUG (S Kirk) Tom Marquand boasts a decent record for the yard but the switch to turf is the unknown. Trainer 0-45 over 228 days so market check advised
STARFIGHTER (M Loughnane) on attractive mark and showed his turn was near when 3rd at Kempton on penultimate start. Billy Loughnane rides
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