WOLVERHAMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Monday 7 October 2024)
October 5th, 2024
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 17-46 37% -8.36 5-15 33% +0.75 3yo 25-47 53% -3.31 40-93 43% +14.88 4yo+ 2-7 29% +2.00 65-190 34% +9.46 TOTAL 44-100 44% -9.67 110-298 37% +25.09 CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (current year) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 1-4 25% -1.38 0-0 00% +0.00 3yo 2-4 50% -0.72 5-10 50% +0.22 4yo+ 0-0 00% +0.00 9-24 38% -0.13 TOTAL 3-8 38% -2.10 14-34 41% +0.09 TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E Tony Carroll (10%) 18-180 10% -31.30 +0% 1 Rod Millman (12%) 16-111 14% -24.12 +2% 2 Archie Watson (14%) 14-60 23% +18.71 +9% 0 John O'Shea (8%) 14-128 11% -44.12 +3% 0 Ralph Beckett (18%) 13-41 32% +7.58 +14% 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R Hollie Doyle (15%) 23-93 25% +8.29 +10% 0 Gina Mangan (10%) 17-112 15% -32.64 +5% 6 Rossa Ryan (16%) 13-79 16% -30.10 +0% 0 William Cox (5%) 13-113 12% +18.95 +7% 0 David Probert (12%) 13-128 10% -79.61 -2% 5 TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E Cross Racing Club (10%) 7-44 16% -6.62 +6% 0 Tidball & Millman (16%) 5-13 38% +10.00 +22% 0 P & A de Weck (8%) 5-42 12% -19.33 +4% 0 James & Llewellyn (15%) 4-12 33% +6.62 +18% 0 S R Whistance (15%) 4-13 31% +31.50 +16% 0 Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures: Thursday 18 July 2024 Friday 26 July 2024 Thursday 8 August 2024 Forthcoming Racecourse Templates: Newbury (Saturday 20 July 2024)
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. All races at up to a mile are run on the straight course. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground.
FAVOURITES: It's official, Chepstow is a punter-friendly racecourse and we have the receipts. Over the past 5 years winning favourites at the course show 154-398 for 38.69% so +5% above the national average. Note, all 3 categories (age-groups) of winning favourites in handicaps produce a profit to level stakes and score well above the national average of 29%, something very unusual in a Racecourse Template! Best category for winning strike rate are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps who show 25-47 for 53% (-3.31).
TRAINERS: Ralph Beckett (18%) scores 32% at Chepstow so a big +14% above his national average but the last 14 days shows just 3-48 for 6%. That said, his last 5 runners have finished 1L222, he has one runner tomorrow in NIGHT LARK 3.35 to be ridden by Rob Hornby who is on a losing run.
Tony Carroll (10%) is top trainer at the course and runs the 8yo RECON MISSION 2.30 and though at the top of the market hard to see this one winning.
Rod Millman (12%) has 2 runners in AIRSHOW 4.05 & PENALTY SHOOTOUT 4.40 and both have place chances at least.
Harry Charlton (16%) has his first runner at the course tomorrow in NILOUFAR 4.40 to be ridden by Trevor Whelan and the combination have a live chance of a winner.
JOCKEYS: David Probert (12%) scores 10% at Chepstow so -2% below his national average, he has 5 rides including ICONIC KNIGHT 3.00, POST RIDER 3.35, VAPE 4.05, PENALTY SHOOTOUT 4.40 & BLOODHOUND 5.10
Rob Hornby (11%) is 0-47 over the past 14 days whilst July shows him 1-53 for less than 2%, he has 4 rides including PORT NOIR 3.00, NIGHT LARK 3.35, BEYOND EQUAL 4.05 & SONNET STAR 5.10. The last time he was at Chepstow he recorded his first ever hat-trick!
Laura Pearson (10%) is another jockey who is in the doldrums, this decent jockey now shows 0-81 over a period of 126 days and 0-20 when riding at Chepstow. She rides a couple of long-shots today in PROFESSOR TICKLE 4.05 & REBEL ANGEL 5.10.
OWNERS: None of the top owners at the course have a runner tomorrow.
RED FLAG: This particular meeting offers a golden chance to the less endowed, and with no disrespect to jockey Gina Mangan and trainer Christopher Mason they both look primed to go close! Gina has a national average of 10% but rides Chepstow well scoring 17-117 for 15% all-time representing her best turf numbers, though she has ridden 17 winners on the Wolverhampton AW also. She has a full book of 6 rides and will surely be involved at the business end, especially from her 3 rides supplied by Mason. Her rides include JUST GLAMOROUS (C Mason) 2.30, GILT EDGE (C Mason) 3.00, SOI DAO (A Wintle) 3.35, JAX EDGE (C Mason) 4.05, RUN JOY RUN (A West) 4.40 & MICKS DREAM (D Faulkner) 5.10
Christopher Mason (12%) trains just down the road from Chepstow and shows 19-156 for 12% at his home course and in a relative sense his horses are in good form. When the trainer combines with Gina Mangan they record 15-84 for 18% (+14.50) so significantly above both national averages.
The Racing Horse is looking forward to meeting the 11yo JUST GLAMOROUS 2.30 in the parade ring and hopefully meet the connections. This star of racing will be having his 74th start after winning 10 races (including a Group 3) and placed on another 17 occasions. He actually made his debut at Chepstow as a 2yo for local trainer Ron Harris in May 2015 finishing second when ridden by Steve Drowne. After race comments confirmed: "Cost 55,000gns as a yearling and is half-brother to his stable's former Group 3 winner Glorious Spirit. He clearly has a future, should learn a lot and can go very close next time if kept away from the bigger tracks."
Strange, despite winning at Ascot, Sandown, Haydock, York, Windsor and 3 from 4 at Salisbury he has never won at Chepstow, though finished third 3 times. He usually goes well fresh but after a break of 248-days was far too keen at Lingfield and could prove better winded for the run. The ground has dried out giving this horse optimum conditions.
PERTINENCE & PERTAINING2.30
|
Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home - Jason Weaver |
CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATES - FREE of CHARGE!CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATES (16 June 2024 to 12 July 2024 |
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |