The Racing Horse offers our KEMPTON AW (Polytrack) RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Wednesday 5 August 2026. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Novice Races and 3 Handicaps, one of which is a 2yo nursery handicap. First draft, and the KEY SUCCESS FACTORS to follow...

WINNING FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   115-263	44%   -22.17	35-82	  43%	  +6.40
3yo   151-296	51%    -9.64	149-446	  33%	 -21.77
4yo+   35-82	43%    -6.46	236-750   31%	 -57.88
TOTAL 301-641	47%   -38.28	420-1278  33%	 -73.24

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON AW 5 years            +/-   R
Andrew Balding (16%)  90-549   16%   -138.69    +0%   2  
Charlie Appleby (30%) 76-202   38%    -22.62    +8%   1 
J & T Gosden (22%)    61-291   21%    -62.39    -1%   4
Roger Varian (19%)    54-243   22%    -57.05    +3%   3  
Ralph Beckett (18%)   49-273   18%    -60.16    +0%   5

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON AW 5 years             +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (21%)   114-506  23%    -86.80     +2%   6
Danny Muscutt (13%)   85-592  14%   -171.44     +1%   0
Rossa Ryan (17%)      79-530  15%    -82.90     -2%   6
William Buick (24%)   73-238  31%    -35.21     +7%   0
Billy Loughnane (16%) 65-407  16%    -47.18     +0%   0

Colin Keane (12%)      7-17   41%     +1.92    +29%   6  

TOP 5 OWNERS at KEMPTON AW 5 years              +/-   E
Godolphin (27%)	     91-296  31%   -22.80       +4%   3  
Juddmonte (23%)      23-80   29%   -13.19       +6%   3         
Opulence Thoro (18%) 17-66   26%    +1.48       +8%   0          
King Power (13%)     17-98   17%   -13.92       +4%   0      
Shadwell Est (23%)   15-64   23%   -10.97       +0%   0

FIXTURES:
Wednesday 5 August 2026
Monday 10 August 2026
Wednesday 12 August 2026
Wednesday 19 August 2026
Wednesday 26 August 2026

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

UNDERSTANDING NATIONAL AVERAGES

CONFIGURATION: Kempton switched to an all-weather track in 2006 and the surface in use is Polytrack. Kempton is a flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five, nine and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, particularly over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is almost three furlongs, making for a more straightforward test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

THE DRAW: The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver

FAVOURITES: Our Kempton Racecourse Template offers a substantial sample size, giving the figures genuine weight. Over the past five years, favourites have won 721-1919 for 37.57%, which sits almost 5% above the national average. In non‑handicaps, winning favourites return 301-641 for 47%, while in handicaps they record 420-1278 for 33%, a notable differential of 14%. The strongest category is 3yo favourites in non‑handicaps, scoring 151-296 for a big 51%, whereas the weakest is 4yos and upwards in handicaps, returning 236-750 for 31%.

For this meeting there are 5 Novice Races and a Nursery Handicap, something that suits our style of betting. This quartet of categories produce 336-723 for a strike rate 46.47% and a small loss of - 31.88 to level stakes given the big sample size. Just a modicum of basic filtration will produce a profit.

TRAINERS: The top 5 trainers have 15 runners between them, and this looks a natural starting point when looking at the card. Winners are promised from this aggregation.

J & T Gosden have their horses in fine form and will be disappointed if at least one of their 4 entries does not win. Their runners include FULCRUM 6.20, GAVRIEL 6.50, CENTRUM 7.20 & DOVE TALE 7.50

Charlie Appleby’s runners at Kempton demand serious consideration. His five‑year record at the track is exceptional, returning 76 winners from 202 runners, a strike‑rate of 38%. The depth of his consistency is even clearer when second places are included: with 36 runners‑up, Appleby has produced 109 first‑ or second‑place finishes from 202, an impressive 54% in the top 2. Incredibly, Appleby has a national average of 30% yet scores 38% on the Kempton AW.

The Racing Horse has operated a system built around these Kempton figures for many years, and there has been no sign of decline or fatigue in the data. Appleby’s performance across the 6 UK all‑weather racecourses this year reinforces the point, offering a reminder of just how potent his string is on synthetic surfaces.

Chelmsford: 0-1 for 0% (-1.00)
Kempton: 5-7 for 71% (+1.95)
Lingfield: 1-1 for 100% (+2.75)
Newcastle: 0-3 for 0% (-3.00)
Southwell: 3-11 for 27% (-3.74)
Wolverhampton: 2-6 for 30% (-2.40)
Total: 11-29 for 38%

His only runner for this meeting is the unraced 3yo Dubawi gelding FORTITUDINE 7.50 and James Doyle was booked early to take the ride suggesting the entry will win or go close. The paddock and market will tell us more.

JOCKEYS: Two of our top jockeys clash. Oisin Murphy (21%) has 6 rides including TALLAHASSEE LASSIE 5.20, AHMADI 5.50, MONTALBANO 6.20, BLACK CHIFTON 6.50, CLOUD FOREST 7.50 & PISCEAN STAR 8.20.

Rossa Ryan (17%) also has 6 rides on INVINCIBLE ISAAC 5.20, GHOST RAIDER 6.20, CHARLIE'S CANNON 6.50, DIALSTONE 7.20, CHURCH WEDDING 8.20 & ANGEL GABRIEL 8.20.

Colin Keane (12%) makes a rare visit to this course, but an important one. He clearly understands this surface, from just 17 rides he has won 7 times for a huge 41% and he comes loaded with 6 rides with 3 of those for Juddmonte. They include CROWNED 5.20, MINZAAL TIME 5.50, SAYID HARRY ANGEL 6.20, NAJIDI STORM 6.50, CENTRUM 7.20 & QUADRILLION 8.20. It is reasonable to expect a winner from his visit, and it will be fascinating to see him take on Oisin Murphy and Ross Ryan on their home patch.

OWNERS: The top 2 owners at the course have 6 runners for this meeting, and we can expect a winner or two to come from them. Godolphin (27%) reign supreme at this racecourse and record more winners than the next 20 owners combined. They have 3 runners trained by 3 different trainers including FORTITUDINE & TREBLE BASS (R Varian) 7.20 and CLOUD FOREST (Saeed bin Suroor) 7.50. Another winner beckons.

JUDDMONTE (23%) also have 3 runners including NAJIDI STORM6.50, CENTRUM 7.20 & QUADRILLION 8.20, all to be ridden by Colin Keane.

We have a number of cold list performers who will surely come off this list sooner rather and later, and the advice it to follow them from hereon in. They include ace trainer Ralph Beckett (18%) who is currently 0-32 over the past 9 days. We cannot remember a run this big in the last few years. He has 5 runners at Kempton to process including AHMADI 5.50, GHOST RAIDER 6.20, DIALSTONE 7.20, CHURCH WEDDING 7.50 & ANGEL GABRIEL 8.20. It is almost impossible to imagine the trainer reaching for 0-40, and once he gets one win he is likely to set up a sequence! Stop at a winner is advised? As we go to post he has 12 early declarations for Thursday so a busy 48 hours in front of him

There are 3 jockeys in the doldrums also. They include David Egan (12%) who is 0-43 over the past 11 days and Kieran Shoemark (13%) now 0-20 over the last 7 days. They both have rides before the template meeting, so will update in readiness...

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