LADY LADE 5.50 Hamilton at evens

hamilton-park.co.uk EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands C & D) (A Hamilton 2YO Qual') (Class 4) 5f7y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-10 for 30%          (10)
National average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)             
RPR: 97                             (10)                            
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Distance: 5f+                       (10)
Jockey: Sam James                   (10)*
National Average: 9%                 (9)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 20%         (10)* 
Total:                              (99)

Danger: Sagittarius Alt: Doomsday

Bolted up last time, more improvement expected

Havana Gold 2yos have been making hay this season and he looks to have another smart type in the shape of Lady Lade who wasn't for catching at Carlisle last month. This £21,000 yearling filly is a first foal out of an unraced dam. She stepped forward from her debut run when bolting up at Carlisle winning at 10/3 in a Class 5 maiden. She was very green yet still won by a margin of 5½ lengths from Doomsday, when going clear final 1f after hanging left. She is almost certain to improve again and her RPR of 97 compares favourably to her two main rivals. Today is a Class 4 novice with just the Archie Watson to beat, we cannot imagine Doomsday reversing the form barring an accident, though that colt is entitled to progress also!

Trainer form

Trainer Keith Dalgleish is extremely busy tomorrow sending out 9 runners to Hamilton and 2 to York, the Pacafi looks his best chance of a winner. He is not a trainer we follow closely but he knows the time of day.

His national average is 11% but he scores at Hamilton at 13% and the 2% above is significant, this is his favourite and best track for winners. At this course he scores 103-790 for 13%, with 111 second places, 97 third places and 104 fourth places, so clearly his trusted place of work!

His horses are running very well at the moment with the last 14 days showing 6-44 for 14% but 3 winners from his last 10 runners for 30%.

UPDATE: The trainer recorded 3 WINNERS at the track last night!

Contenders

Despite being 6lb better off in defeat, Doomsday has a mountain to climb if he's to reverse form with the latter. That leaves Sagittarius as the biggest threat on the back of a taking win at Lingfield and his trainer Archie Watson rarely wastes bullets when sending one north of the border.

Timeform

This looks to revolve around Keith Dalgleish's filly LADY LADE, who left her debut effort well behind when bolting up at Carlisle last month and, with further improvement on the cards, should very tough to beat. Doomsday chased the selection home that day and it looks like he may have to settle for silver again, ahead of Sagittarius.

Value

We had priced up the Pacafi at something closer to 4/5. The manner of her victory last time suggested the trainer might attempt to go for some black type this year if she reproduces or betters that form tomorrow. Just a little negative, there is rain about in the area later, but as long as there is not too much it should not be a problem given the breeding side of things.

Lady Lade traded at a high of 5.10 and BSP of 5.00 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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