OLD FLAME 5.15 Catterick at 4/5

Millbry Hill Country Store Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f6y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 5-20 for 25%          (10)     
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%              (9)*          
RPR: 88                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Distance: 7f                        (10)
Jockey: Dougie Costello              (9)*
National Average: 7%                 (8)*
Course Strike Rate:                  (-)*
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 16%          (-)*
Total:                              (76)*
Danger: Lightening Company

Held in high regard

Old Flame is clearly held in high regard judging by the level of market support that he has received on both of his starts and, having shown improved form when winning at Wolverhampton earlier this month, the Ralph Beckett-trained colt is tipped to continue on the upward curve on his turf debut. 

Open to further improvement

Old Flame is a third foal and a half-brother to useful winner up to 1m Chaleur (2yo 6f/7f winner) and 1m winner (stays 10.5f) Dalvey (both by Dansili). Dam, 2yo 7f winner, half-sister to smart 7f winner Tantina out of smart winner up to 7f (2yo 6f winner) Didina. Showing fairly useful form and 10/11 favourite, won 12-runner minor event at Wolverhampton last time by ½ length from Unique Cut, driven out. Now open to further improvement.

Trainer form

Trainer Ralph Beckett has his horses in fine form at the moment and since 19/08/2021 shows 12-70 for 17% (-1.76) and now the trainer makes this long trip of 279 miles to get a turf win for this Juddmonte colt. The trainer has sent just 8 runners to this course in the past 5 years and score with just one of those. Lightening Company will probably give the Pacafi a lead so Costello can produce when ready.

Contenders

Lightening Company pulled clear with the runner-up when making a winning debut at Carlisle in May (124 days ago) and is a clear danger, though Bachau cannot be ruled out on his first start for this yard but runs for the first time in 213 days. The latter wears a hood for the first time and has a tongue strap.

 Timeform

This looks a match on paper between the two previous winners OLD FLAME and Lightening Company, with Ralph Beckett's charge getting the vote having opened his account second time up at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. With further progress anticipated, he's taken to double his tally. Ben Haslem's charge hasn't been seen since May so it's possible he may need this on return.

Value

We missed the 5/6 but happy to take the 4/5 and that looks north of perceived value! 

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.