NAJEEBA 4.55 Newcastle at 11/8

Betway Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m4f98y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 7-22 for 32%          (10)     
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 30%             (10)        
RPR: 77                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m4f+                     (10)
Jockey: Hollie Doyle                (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 19%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Desert Emperor Alt: Perfect Country

Optimum conditions, ready to burst on the scene!

Najeeba has shown fair form to date. She has not been rushed by the look of things, she has been off 5 months and now upped in trip and the 1m4f looks perfect for her. The form book says she finished seventh of nine last time out but that does not tell the story of the race. She had improved from debut before being beaten just over a length with a wall of horses in front of her. Hollie held onto her to the line with her mount showing plenty of conviction and tomorrow's conditions, course and race looks ideal!

She looks to be the class act in this field on the evidence of that promising display in a Newbury maiden, and although rated a little below Desert Emperor she is totally unexposed though she is entitled to improve again for the run.

Trainer form

Roger Charlton has his horses in excellent form, his last 14 days show 7-22 for 32% and at Newcastle he records 6-20 for 30%. These numbers are much bigger than his national average of 17%. When Hollie rides for Charlton they combine 9-48 for 19% (-1.03). Hollie rieds the Newcastle AW course particularly well and scores 28-151 for 19% (+23.68). Najeeba is the trainer's only runner tomorrow and the horse makes a trip of 292 miles and the longest traveller to the course for this meeting. Everything suggests this is a job of work for the filly to break her maiden tag! The team will want a win from her now especially given her breeding.

Contenders

Desert Emperor has run well here in the past despite being a maiden after seven starts, while Stockbridge Tap is another who is capable of being in the shake-up. Perfect Country appeals most of the newcomers.

Timeform

  This will not take much winning. NAJEEBA was last seen in a solid Newbury maiden in April and she wasn't beaten far on that occasion. It's likely she'll improve for the time off and the step up in trip so looks the one to side with. Perfect Country has a decent pedigree and she may be up to making an impact on debut. Desert Emperor looks the next best option.

Value

The 11/8 looks an attractive price given our rationale, our Pacafi has the absolute optimum conditions to strike.

UPDATE: Bet365 allowed me to cash out and we are now on with Betfair & Paddy Power at a huge 7/4 and a small bet with SkyBet at 15/8, this looks to be fantastic value. Get on! Cannot believe this price, we are going to wager at 2pts win but the advice remains 1pt win!!!

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.