AL BAREZ 4.30 Wolverhampton at 6/4

Play Coral Racing-Super-Series For Free EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f20y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-5 for 40%           (10)     
National average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%              (10)        
RPR: 90                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Distance: 6f                        (10)
Jockey: Jack Mitchell               (10)
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 12%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Forca Brasil

 Travelled well and hit the 6f line hard, certain to progress

Al Barez won on his latest outing when the 11/8 favourite at Yarmouth over 6f on good to soft ground last month, beating Star Zinc by 2l. The Pacafi travelled particularly well and is favoured over his rival, with his extra run and race fitness likely to play a crucial role in proceedings.

This really does look a two-horse race but our thoughts turned to the last 100 yards. Al Barez fully stays the 6f and proved it on good to soft ground but Forca Brasil has it to prove and after a break. This is what George Boughey told us after his win: "He has shown a lot of pace there. He wasn't rapid from the gate but Rossa said after a furlong he was just in his hands and he travels very well. He's shown a lot of speed at home and Rossa said at the moment 5f is his trip but it wouldn't surprise me if got up to 6f in time. He's going to be a really fun horse for his owner and he looks like a Norfolk Stakes type at the moment." We would not take even money on the back of those comments!

Trainer form

Newmarket trainer Tom Clover is not a typical trainer we go to for a Pacafi but he knows the time of day. His national average is only 10% and he scores at just 9% at Wolverhampton so not strong figures, but his combination with jockey Jack Mitchell is very strong considering showing 24-208 for 12%. The trainer is in form with his horses with 2 of his last 5 winning. Jack Mitchell rides Wolverhampton brilliantly and scores a massive 74-371 for 20% (-14.39).

In fairness Rossa Ryan (Forca Brasil) does too, he shows 59-318 for 19% (+65.08)

 Contenders

Forca Brasil should make the Pacafi work, having scored with something in hand in a strong Newmarket novice event in April. His absence of 202 days must be a concern to his backers and he might just need the run before registering a personal best. His win was over 5f whereas the Pacafi won over tomorrow's 6f distance. His trainer shows 2-29 for just 7% over the last 14 days, and 7-62 for 11% for October which is -7% below his national average. Fristel improved when third over course and distance last time and looks next best but we cannot see that one beating both the front two in the market!

Timeform

  AL BAREZ looks to be a progressive colt and he's been found a good opportunity to gain a second career win here. Forca Brasil should be a threat but the fact he's been off the track since April is slightly off-putting.

Value

The 6/4 plus must be perceived value given the rationale. We are now on at 13/8 best price guaranteed.

Forca Brasil traded at a high of 9.00 and Betfair SP of 5.44 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.

Al Barez traded at a high of 2.08 and Betfair SP of 2.48 when winning last time, a race in which it led.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.