L'HOMME PRESSE 1.25 Cheltenham at 7/4

 Paddy Power Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f127y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-22 for 27%          (10)     
National average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 6%               (8)        
RPR: 165                            (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)
Distance: 2m4f+                     (10)
Jockey: Charlie Deutsch             (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 16%     (10)
Total:                              (98)
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Danger: The Glancing Queen

Plenty in hand

The Pacafi is a very lightly-raced 7yo who has only 6 races on the clock so totally unexposed, further progress must be guaranteed and he looks a potential top-notcher. He made his chasing debut at Exeter in a Class 3 (0-140) after being off the course since late April, so just his fifth career outing and he produced a pleasing performance except for one mistake three out. He looks a potential 150+ novice.

After his most promising start over fences, he then readily making it 2-2 in an Ascot Graduation Chase (21f) two weeks ago where he had plenty in hand after being keen early and jumping to the left for most of the race. Cheltenham looks certain to suit! 

Joy to ride - Charlie Deutsch

After his win at Ascot Charlie Deutsch told us : "I didn't expect it to be that easy at all. L'Homme Presse was taking lengths out of the other horses at his fences and with a circuit to go I thought I might as well go on now because he was taking me there. He just jumped a bit left just to correct himself but it was all very straightforward and a joy to ride." Those words replicated what our eyes took from the race!

Trainer

Venetia Williams has her horses in fine form showing 6-22 for 27% over the past 14 days. Her national average is 15% so she is currently sailing 12% above that. The combination between Venetia and jockey Charlie Deutsch is exceptional given their modus operandi and it shows 115-722 for 16% and £2,151,953 in prize money. The trainer has 7 runners tomorrow and 3 at Cheltenham but the Pacafi is the main entry and probably her best chance of a winner!

Contenders

The Glancing Queen is a likeable mare who has impressed over fences this term, making it 2-2 in a listed mares' event at Warwick (20f) last month. Well worth her place at this higher level and looks the main danger!

Timeform

 A low-mileage 7yo L'Homme Presse has made an excellent start over fences, maintaining his 100% record with plenty to spare at Ascot (21f) on his latest start in December. He gets the nod to continue the good work now tackling this higher grade. Millers Bank looked set to score at Newbury on his latest start and is feared, along with the likeable The Glancing Queen.

Value

The 7/4 looks value given the conditions of this race, with good trainer form, progression, ground and distance sure to suit but also the left handed track. Glancing Queen is the clear danger but we priced the race up at 11/8 L'Homme Presse 7/2 Glancing Queen 6/1 Millers Bank 12/1 Bar. 

L'homme Presse traded at a high of 2.26 and Betfair SP of 2.30 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

SkyBet offer money back if second or third in this race...

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.