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Cheltenham Racecourse Template (Saturday 29 January 2022)
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The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Cheltenham (Saturday 29 January 2022) where there is an 8-race card. The going is expected to be good. First race is at 12.15. |
FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP (5 YEARS) HANDICAP (5 YEARS)
Hurdle 42-110 for 38% (-18.78) 22-95 for 23% (-7.01)
Chase 46-115 for 40% (-8.43) 28-115 for 24% (-14.38)
NHF 5-26 for 19% (-8.75) 0-0
Total 93-251 for 37% (-35.96) 50-210 for 24% (-21.38)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- E
Nicky Henderson (24%) 41-282 for 15% (-47.32) -9% 3
Gordon Elliott (23%) 26-160 for 16% (+28.42) -7% 1
W P Mullins (12%) 25-237 for 11% (-7.91) -1% 1
Dan Skelton (19%) 23-228 for 10% (-68.33) -9% 3
Paul Nicholls (23%) 22-236 for 9% (-105.58) -14% 5
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- R
Harry Skelton (22%) 23-187 for 12% (-61.83) -10% 0
N de Boinville (22%) 18-127 for 14% (+20.80) -8% 2
Sam T-Davies (16%) 17-192 for 9% (-74.39) -7% 2
Paddy Brennan (16%) 16-144 for 11% (-7.12) -5% 5
Harry Cobden (21%) 14-172 for 8% (-81.72) -13% 4
TOP 5 OWNERS at Cheltenham (5 years) +/- E
J P McManus (17%): 33-274 for 12% (-101.21) -5% 2
Munir & Souede (21%): 11-102 for 11% (-66.96) -10% 0
Gigginstown House (10%): 11-117 for 9% (-41.52) -1% 0
Cheveley Park Stud (28%): 7-18 for 39% (+14.69) +11% 0
P J Vogt (17%): 5-10 for 50% (+19.75) +33% 0
HOT TRAINERS 30/12/2021 to 29/01/2022 +/- E
J Williams (17%) 4-13 for 31% (+5.14) +14% 1
G L Moore (14%) 20-81 for 25% (+2.71) +11% 1
M Harris (14%) 7-29 for 24% (+8.50) +10% 3
W P Mullins (26%) 19-80 for 24% (-1.00) +2% 1
V Williams (16%) 13-55 for 24% (-3.00) +8% 1
D Skelton (19%) 15-71 for 21% (-1.00) +2% 3
HOT JOCKEYS 30/12/2021 to 29/01/2022 +/- R
P Mullins (30%) 3-9 for 33% (-3.00) +3% 1
A Coleman (18%) 11-45 for 24% (-0.09) +6% 2
B Hughes (18%) 19-81 for 24% (+20.68) +6% 5
J Moore (11%) 13-62 for 21% (+0.71) +10% 1
FIXTURES
Saturday 29 January 2022
(%): UK National Average SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 143-461 for 31.02% (-57.34) so a strike rate below the national average. Winning favourites in handicaps perform particularly badly at the course with 50-210 for 24% yet conversely show a level stake loss of just -21.38.
COURSE: One thing is for certain at Cheltenham, there are no freebies at this course, and our 5-year totals prove it conclusively.
PAUL NICHOLLS: Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has trained just 22 winners in that time frame at this course! His 9% strike rate looks dreadful when measured against his national average of 23% or against other trainers. Context is everything but we can't help comparing his figures against the likes of Fergal O'Brien 20-170 for 20% (-0.46) who has a far better strike rate! Interesting, his former lieutenant Dan Skelton is bettering his numbers also, and with less overall quality.
His all time score at the track reads 230-1729 for 13% (-345.04) so it appears he is doing something different with his horses more recently, and in particular the last two seasons. Check this out:
Paul Nicholls at Cheltenham for last 2 seasons 2020/2021: 3-56 for 5% (-43.17) 2019/2020: 2-40 for 5% (-28.50) Total: 5-96 for 5% (-71.67)
The Racing Horse had shares in three horses with Nicholls and knows he is not, as his Champion Trainer status suggests, the very best at placing horses on the right course and right ground - there are many others much better than him within this aspect of training! The mathematics and context prove it! Of course, no presenter would ask Nicholls why his horses perform so badly at Cheltenham? Our view is something needs a tweak, he has 5 runners tomorrow, but at this course we are never supremely confident when backing one of his runners!
IRISH TRAINERS: It looks particularly significant that Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have just one runner each and both have winning chances.
TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson (41 winners) is easily top trainer at the course and strikes at 6% higher than Nicholls, so a huge differential! He sends 3 tomorrow and would probably accept a win double.
JOCKEYS: Harry Skelton goes to Doncaster so no rides for him tomorrow at Cheltenham. Our other 4 top jockeys at the course have good rides, Paddy Brennan (5), Harry Cobden (4), Nico de Boinville (2) and Sam Twiston-Davies (2) so from these 13 rides there must be at least 3 winners.
OWNERS: John P McManus is the only top 5 owner with runners. He has 2 runners and both look winners, they are CHANTRY HOUSE 2.30 and CHAMP 3.05
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12.15 12.45 1.20 1.55 2.30 3.05 3.40 4.15 |
| MICK FITZGERALD - CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE
To the naked eye, or to the layman, Cheltenham looks very stiff, but the two courses are actually totally different and I rate the Old Course much the quicker. So, especially on that, you need a horse that can travel easily within itself. Without one of those, you invariably find yourself snookered, because you’re always trying to get into a position to improve. Ideally, therefore, you need a horse that can get into a gap as soon as one appears, because there’s so little time to manoeuvre. If you have to think about going for a gap, nine times out of ten it’s too late - someone else will have got into it before you. As for the uphill finish, it only rides really testing if you’re on one that’s tying up. Then, it feels like an eternity from the last to the line. |
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