CRIOLLO 2.02 Southwell at 10/11

 MansionBet Beaten By A Head Novice Stakes (Class 5) 7f14y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 8-31 for 26%          (10)     
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)        
RPR: 81                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 7f                        (10)
Jockey: Cieren Fallon               (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 16%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Naadyaa

Poor trip on debut!

Criollo is a well-bred filly and the first foal of a 6f Group 3 2yo winner. On debut at Wolverhampton she was slowly away and last most of the way and was not only disadvantaged by her racing position, but did not get the clearest of runs as she ran on in the straight. She was made the 5/2 favourite so expected to win her Class 5 fillies' novice race under Cieren Fallon.

Next up win to be upgraded

Next up she was made the 10/11 favourite and built on her debut third at Wolverhampton when just holding on to score at Lingfield, but we upgraded the quality of that win given the petrol she used up early just to secure a racing position! Once again she had dwelt at the start and had to race wide from her outside draw until she could cross over and get to the lead. Once ahead, she set sectionals under Tom Marquand that allowed her to hang on, building on that good debut effort. It'll be surprising if she hasn't got a more improvement to come especially with a kinder start and trip. Cieren Fallon is back in the saddle tomorrow.

We have covered Southwell Tapeta Racecourse Template for tomorrow: CRIOLLO (W Haggas) hot trainer 26% in winter and 22% with horses 7f to 10f, Cieren Fallon rides. PACAFI STATUS 10/11

Contenders

Naadyaa is an interesting newcomer, being related to several winners including one who scored in Listed company in Dubai. This is the first runner for trainer Owen Burrows so no idea how forward his charge may be. The drop in trip might see Kaahira take a step forward and run a place

Timeform

CRIOLLO took a step forward as expected from debut when running out a good winner of a Lingfield minor event over this trip 4 weeks ago, and with potential for better still, she looks worth siding with to follow up. Newcomer Naadyaa makes appeal on paper and is worth a look if strong in betting. Kaahira may do best of the others, ahead of Broomy Law.

Value

The 10/11 secured looks to be perceived value, we priced the filly up closer to 8/11. We would like a neat stalls exit but might have a bit to spare in any case...

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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