SAYADAM 1.00 Ludlow at 8/11

 Racing To School Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 1m7f169y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-5 for 20%           (10)    
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22%             (10)                                     
OR & RPR: 124 & 133                 (10)
Distance: 2m-2m+                    (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: David Bass                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 19%           (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Just The Man

Unexposed yet clear on ratings

Sayadam already has an OR of 124 and a RPR of 133 after just 4 runs (1122) under rules, so open to any amount of improvement. Furthermore, he had wind surgery on 20 January to help his breathing adding value to his winning claims. To date he was successful in a hurdle race and a NH flat race at 2m on good to soft and soft ground. Beaten 2 1/4l by Charles Ritz when second of 9 at 5/2 on his latest outing in a hurdle race at Southwell over 2m4f on good to soft ground in December last year. He steps back to his winning distances of 2m tomorrow so optimum conditions beckon!

Trainer and Jockey form

Trainer Kim Bailey (17%) does particularly well with his runners at Ludlow scoring 21-96 for 22% (-2.13) in the past 5 years so 4% above his national average. Only the one winner in April so far, but nearly all of his runners have been at big prices. March showed 5-33 for 15% (+1.49) and February 7-32 for 22% (+16.13)

His combination with David Bass is exceptional and records 174-921 for 19% and this is the trainer and jockey's only entry and ride of the day. This looks a job of work!

Contender

Just The Man is far more exposed (34 races) but a likeable type who was back to winning ways in smooth style over course and distance in March. Found a 5lb higher mark in better company too much at Aintree since but needs respecting back in a novice and apart from the Pacafi lacking in depth. He looks the only danger to the Pacafi.

Timeform

 In a novice lacking clear depth, this looks an excellent opportunity for SAYADAM to resume winning ways following a break/breathing operation. Just The Man goes well at this track and is the obvious threat.

Value

The 8/11 is surely north of perceived value given our rationale! 

Just The Man traded at a low of 19.50 and Betfair SP of 36.48 when losing last time, a race in which it raced behind: Sayadam traded at a low of 1.75 and Betfair SP of 4.20 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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