ENKI FLACKE 2.20 Perth tbc

bet365 Queen's Platinum Jubilee Novices' Hurdle

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form UK: 4-11 for 36%       (10)    
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 35%             (10)                                     
OR & RPR: 121 & 127                 (10)  
Distance: 2m4f                      (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Sean Bowen                  (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 33%             (10)                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 29%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Holmes St Georges

 2-2 at Perth

Enki Flacke has been successful in a NH flat race at 2m and a hurdle race at 2m 4f on good and good to soft ground respectively with both wins on this course. He won on his latest outing in a maiden hurdle race when the 5/6 favourite over this course and distance on good to soft ground last month. Sean Bowen rode him for his win and keeps the ride.

Composite

All our composite boxes have big numbers/percentages in them. Timeform called the nomination a percentage call and that is correct! Watching his debut win over hurdles he jumped reasonably in the main, despite a slow pace for the first half of the race, though he bunny-hopped making a horrible shape at the last. Trainer Gordon Elliott had previously told us: "He has plenty experience now over hurdles and has run in some good company with reasonable results." One of those runs in a bumper was against Kilcruit.

Every box ticked

We look closely at the numbers of the three principal trainers in this race, setting aside experience, our course and distance winning form, the ability to run close to the pace in a small field and sprint home if needed. The two rivals also have to prove they take to the new discipline:

Gordon Elliott UK National Average: 107-482 for 22%
S R B Crawford UK National Average:  30-268 for 11%
Keith Dalgleish National Average:    90-618 for 15%

Gordon Elliott current season:  4-11 for 36%
S R B Crawford current season:  1-11 for  9%
Keith Dalgleish current season: 1-8  for 13%

Gordon Elliott course form:  42-121 for 35%  (+6.19)
S R B Crawford course form:   5-76  for  7% (-47.25)
Keith Dalgleish course form: 13-74  for 18%  (+4.80) 

Elliott & Bowen combination:     14-48 for 29%  (+3.75)
Crawford & Jacob combination:     3-25 for 12% (-17.63)
Dalgleish & Hughes combination: 50-235 for 21% (-54.04)

Contenders

Holmes St George was a Musselburgh bumper winner in January. Not disgraced in a stronger race at Fairyhouse over Easter and should be up to making his presence felt in a race like this now hurdling and clearly the main danger. Ain't No Sunshine won Kelso a bumper on debut but was disappointing in 2 subsequent starts in that sphere but retains potential now hurdling.

 Timeform

   ENKI FLACKE is the percentage call to add to his C&D success last month, although bumper-winners Holmes St Georges and Ain't No Sunshine would have the ability to test him if taking to their new discipline.

Value

The 4/5 best price guarantee looks north of value, because the price is general and across the board the intention is to secure better. We have been nibbling at 1.94 to 1.96 on the Betfair Exchange and that is clearly perceived value! The rationale above means we should win two of every three bets of this type, if not three from four.

Enki Flacke traded at a high of 4.70 and Betfair SP of 2.19 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

BY THE WAY: Brian Hughes is currently 0-18 over the past 8 days so officially on the cold list. He has 7 rides today and will surely ride at least one winner if not two, and we are playing stop at a winner with a separate set-aside bank especially for this type of situation. None of the rides are odds-on and we will be taking advantage our numbers! Obviously we will not be backing his ride in the first race, but will be playing from Race 2 onwards. As always getting those best prices are key, we are ready...

A winning Pacafi and a Brian Hughes winner is what we want for today!

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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