MARBAAN 2.00 Nottingham at 4/5

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f18y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form UK: 1-11 for 9%         (9)*   
National average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                                     
RPR: 92                             (10)  
Distance: 7f                         (9)*                          
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Jamie Spencer               (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%               (9)*                                            
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 13%           (10)           
Total:                              (97)
.
Danger: Mutaany

 Composite Board

Members are entitled to look at the Composite Board and and raise an eyebrow regarding this particular Pacafi, so we need to make a case for this wager. Many bettors steer clear of Jamie Spencer given his obsession with exaggerated hold-up tactics! On debut he had Marbaan racing just off the early pace and we expect the jockey to repeat the tactics on a speed front-runners track. The fact this colt is owned by Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum further suggests Spencer is less likely to play silly buggers!

Trainer form

Charlie Fellowes has won just one race from his last 11 runners for 9% but we are talking about a trainer with a low national average of 12%, his strike rate at Nottingham is 20%. His last 14 days numbers are not a reflection of the form his horses are in. For example, he has recorded 4 second places in the last few days at prices of 12/1, 9/2, 10/3 & 13/2. His combination with Jamie Spencer shows a strike rate of 13% so above the national average of the trainer.

Came out of his debut well

Marbaan was foaled 4 March and is a half-brother to Convergence, who won three times at 7f including a Group 3 race. The Oasis Dream colt was third of 14 behind Dark Thirty beaten 2¼l at 12/1 on his racecourse debut at Newbury over 6f on good ground last month posting a RPR of 92. He rallied after being hampered showing a good attitude, that is clearly the best form of those to have run and he looks the one to beat especially as we expect improvement! He was made a 12/1 shot for that debut so not fancied to win. Furthermore David Milnes (Racing Post) has confirmed he came out of his debut well.

Optimum distance?

We are not sure if the six furlong race at Nottingham is a negative at this stage of Marbaan's career. Though Oasis Dream did his winning at this distance, his dam wanted further, she won over a mile as a 2yo and 1m4f as a 3yo. Tomorrow's race is on the straight course with minor undulations where speedy, handy types are favoured. The going is currently good to soft so this could compensate/suit/help our wager, given the dam won on good to soft also.

Contenders

There looks to be two contenders. Think Climate is a brother to winners James Garfield (6f-7f, including 2yo Group 2; RPR 119) and Morag McCullagh (6f AW; 94). He got upset in stalls and was withdrawn when 13-2 on his intended debut at Yarmouth three weeks ago. Will he play up again? The main danger could be Mutaany with Jim Crowley up, he will punish any over confidence from Spencer on a horse who is bound to step forward from his Haydock run.

 Timeform

  MARBAAN's debut effort at Newbury a month ago was full of promise and, sure to build on that, he will take plenty of stopping. Mutaany was given a kind ride starting out at Haydock and could be a different proposition this time, with Dream For Gold the pick of the newcomers before market clues.

Value

The 5/6 looks a fair price given his promising debut. We believe we have a bit to spare and the Jamie Spencer jockey booking is factored into the above thought processes!

.

PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

.