POP THE CHAMPAGNE 4.05 Worcester at 4/5

Neu-Servo Industrial Pump Repair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form UK: 7-23 for 30%       (10)  
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%             (10)                                     
OR & RPR: 105 & 111                 (10)  
Distance: 5f-6f                     (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Paddy Brennan               (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%             (10)                                            
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 20%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Night Fever

Pop The Champagne races in a Class 4 Novice Mares' Hurdle and to date has been successful in a hurdle race and a NH flat race at 2m on good ground. She is the only winner under Rules in this race and carries a penalty.

Improvement promised

She was a winner at 7/4 in a hurdle race at Ffos Las over 2m on good ground on her latest outing earlier this month, beating Ami Des Flots by 1¾l. We upgraded the win on a number of counts. First she raced a bit keenly on her first run since disappointing on hurdling debut at Huntingdon last October, but came there travelling best in the straight. She then had to knuckle down to get the better of the runner-up but was going away at the finish. She showed decent form in bumpers for her former trainer and joint-owner, and promised to improve from this. Her jumping will need to improve but her two main rivals are yet to jump a hurdle in public, so an edge in that regard.

Will to win was really good - Paddy Brennan

After the race her jockey Paddy Brennan told us: "Sometimes you need to jump to win, I didn't jump and I won, so Pop The Champagne has done really well. To be honest, it was her first proper hurdle race where she has been in amongst the thick of things, today almost felt like her first run over hurdles. Her will to win was really good." Those comments will stand her in good stead for NH racing!

Trainer form

Fergal O'Brien (17%) has his horses in fine form, the last 14 days show 7 winners from 23 for 30%. His figures at Worcester are also excellent showing 22-116 for 19% and a level stake profit of +13.03. Both sets of numbers are above his national average. His combination with jockey Paddy Brennan is one of the best within the UK NH racing scene, they score 218-1084 for 20%. The trainer has a second horse in the race and this negatively impacts on things but on this occasion we have set the chances of shenanigans aside! We would rather not see money come for her stablemate. The trainer sends 5 to Worcester today and this looks his best chance of a winner.

Contenders

Night Fever cost just £7,500 but had shown form in Germany, so she looks to be the main danger, the market will tell us more. She has not raced for 309 days and although her changed trainer notification was 8 June we have no knowledge of how long trainer Jamie Snowden has had her in training etc.

Stablemate Sorceress Medea showed potential on her last two starts in bumpers and the daughter of Walk In The Park is a noteworthy contender on her hurdling bow. 

 Timeform

   NIGHT FEVER has shown fairly useful form in Germany and has joined a reliable jumps operation, so a chance is taken on her to make a winning hurdling debut after 10 months off. Pop The Champagne had plenty in hand at Ffos Las earlier in the month, so she should feature despite the penalty, and her stablemate Sorceress Medea should benefit from the switch to obstacles. 

Value

We cannot know how good Night Fever is, we do know she has been off the track since August last year and her Flat win was in September 2019, so experience tells us the 4/5 about the Pacafi is probably on the right side of perceived value!

Pop The Champagne traded at a high of 7.00 and Betfair SP of 2.92 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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