NEWMARKET RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Friday 15 July 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Newmarket Racecourse Template for Friday 15 July 2022. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps and 2 Novice Races. The going is expected to be good to firm.

 

NEWMARKET (JULY) FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   50-118  42%   -4.10       6-18     33%    -4.99
3yo   24-58   41%  -11.51       73-225   32%   -34.93
4yo+   8-25   32%   -6.25       37-125   30%   -14.31
Total 82-201  41%  -21.86       116-368  32%   -54.23

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET (July) 2021          +/-   E
C Appleby (28%)   16-43  37%  (+3.26)         +9%   3 
R Hannon (12%)     9-63  14% (+16.40)         +2%   2 
W Haggas (23%)     7-30  23%  (+3.17)         +0%   0 
A Balding (15%)    6-29  21% (+14.82)         +6%   0
J & T Gosden (21%) 6-52  12% (-29.63)         -9%   3

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years       +/-   E
C Appleby (28%)      48-177  27%  -17.44      -1%   3
J & T Gosden (21%)   43-202  21%  -13.31      +0%   3
R Hannon (12%)       36-278  13%  -53.92      +1%   2  
C & M Johnston (15%) 30-181  13%   -7.97      +2%   1
S bin Suroor (21%)   21-69   30%  +27.35      +9%   0
  
TOP 5 JOCKEYS NEWMARKET (July) 2021           +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)   17-74   23%    -4.21          +3%   5  
W Buick (22%)   10-42   24%   -15.30          +2%   0
M Ghiani (15%)   9-24   38%   +11.49         +23%   0 
T Marquand (14%) 7-35   20%   +12.59          +6%   0
O Murphy (19%)   7-36   19%   +10.85          +0%   0

TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years          +/-   R
J Doyle (20%)	41-218	19%   -60.69          -1%   5
W Buick (22%)	40-169	24%   -36.95          +2%   0
O Murphy (19%)  23-123  19%   +25.12          +0%   0 
A Atzeni (16%)	23-125	18%    -7.89          +2%   0
R Havlin (16%)	21-102	21%   -22.18          +5%   3

TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET (July) 5 years         +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)     70-265  26%   -9.24       +2%   3
H Al Maktoum (21%)  20-97   21%   -1.00       +0%   0
Cheveley Park (17%) 13-52   25%   +1.62       +8%   1
Moh Al Maktoum (15%) 9-40   23%  +18.37       +0%   0
Al Shaqab (15%)      8-26   31%   +9.50      +17%   0

HOT TRAINERS 15/06/2022 to 14/07/2022         +/-   E 
R Varian (20%)      25-90   28%   -3.90       +8%   2
B Haslam (10%)       4-19   21%   -2.00      +11%   1
S & E Crisford (19%) 8-39   21%   -3.12       +2%   2

TRAINER COLD LIST  SAW   E
S C Williams (12%)  19   1
H Eustace (14%)     16   1

HOT JOCKEYS 15/06/2022 to 14/07/2022          +/-   R
R Moore (18%)   17-75   23%   +21.96          +5%   5
R Havlin (16%)  10-45   22%   +11.24          +6%   3
B Sayette (21%) 14-66   21%   -17.38          +0%   4
 
JOCKEY COLD LIST  SAW   R
H Turner (10%)     34   3

Fixtures:
Friday 15 July 2022
Saturday 16 July 2022
Friday 22 July 2022
Saturday 23 July 2022
Friday 29 July 2022

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newmarket (July) show 198-569 for 34.80% (-76.09) so a little above the national average. Best strike rate category are 2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing 50-118 for 42% (-4.10). Worst category are 4yo+ in handicaps with 37-125 for 30% (-14.31).

TRAINERS: Charlie Appleby is unique when it comes to the Newmarket Racecourses. He has a big national average of 28%, yet somehow manages to replicate that figure at the headquarters of racing!

Rowley: 70-247 for 28%  (+6.28)
July:   48-177 for 27% (-17.45)
Total: 118-424 for 28% (-11.17)

His figures should be upgraded given he often has multiple entries in a race at this course which in turn dilutes his strike rates. Appleby clearly knows what horses are suited to this course better than any other. On Friday he runs ART OF MAGIC 5.36, TRIBAL WISDOM & SENSE OF WISDOM 6.40

JOHN GOSDEN: Mathematics, context and relevance is everything in racing, here are the figures of the next best at the course John Gosden. His figures merely highlight the brilliance of Appleby.

Rowley: 52-281 for 19% (-46.83)
July:   43-202 for 21% (-13.31)
Total:  93-473 for 20% (-60.14)

No other UK trainers can compare to Charlie Appleby and John Gosden, so we always scrutinise their runners a couple of days before racing. On Friday Gosden runs A E HOUSMAN 6.40, NATASHA & MORNING POEM 7.40

JOCKEYS: Top jockey at the course is James Doyle (20%) and he has 5 rides and almost certain to ride a winner. His rides include ART OF MAGIC 5.36, CAMACHESS 6.10, TRIBAL WISDOM 6.40, GUILIN 7.10 and ANOTHER ROMANCE 8.10. As we go to post the jockey is 0-20 over the past 8 days.

We note William Buick (22%) goes to Newbury instead of Newmarket and the hint should be taken. Andrea Atzeni (16%), who has been in fine form recently, goes to Hamilton for just one ride. Meanwhile Hayley Turner (10%) finds herself on the cold list 0-34 and she has 3 rides tomorrow.

HOT JOCKEYS: Ryan Moore (18%) has 5 rides, Rob Havlin (16%) has 3 and Benoit De La Sayette (21%) has 4. There must be a winner or two from these 12 rides.

OWNERS: Godolphin reign supreme at Newmarket! They have a national average of 24% yet score 26% at the course, and this strike rate includes multiple runners in the same race, and those from different trainers. The suggestion is if we are not backing a fancied Godolphin runner we are not backing against them! On Friday they have 3 runners entered (provided by Appleby, see above).

Cheveley Park Stud (25% at the course) have one entry in GASTRONOMY 6.40

BY THE WAY: William Buick (22%) goes to Newbury instead of riding on the Newmarket July Course and this is significant, his rides at Newbury include: LENORMAND 1.00, SILVER KNOTT 1.33, SWINGALONG 2.08, COUNTRY PYLE 2.43, ZAIN NIGHTS & CHATEAU 3.53. A winner beckons...


5.36
ART OF MAGIC (C Appleby) 28% national average, 28% at the track, trainer shows a profit of £30.87 with debutants, 87 of Invincible Spirit's progeny have won on debut, James Doyle rides

6.10
CAMACHESS (P McBride) weighted to win 70 > 61, James Doyle rides

RED EVELYN (S Pearce) beaten favourite last time out,trainer shows a profit of £69.47 when one runners at a meeting, Joey Haynes rides
BARNEY'S BAY (T Easterby) weighted to win 78 > 71, Rob Havlin rides

6.40
TRIBAL WISDOM (C Appleby)
28% national average, 28% at the track, trainer shows a profit of £30.87 with debutants and £10.66 profit using first time headgear, James Doyle rides
SENSE OF WISDOM (C Appleby) 
28% national average, 28% at the track, Harry Davies (5) rides

7.10
GUILINS (S Woods) Won 1¼m Salisbury novice (good to firm) 7 weeks ago. Up in trip again now tackling his first handicap, must go close, James Doyle rides

7.40
NATASHA (J & T Gosden) drops from Group 1 to Class 3, hot jockey Benoit De La Sayette rides

8.10
ORIGINTRAIL (B Haslam) hot trainer, beaten favourite last time out, still unexposed, David Egan rides

8.40
SPRING IS SPRUNG (M Bell) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, hot jockey Benoit De La Sayette (5) rides

JASON WEAVER - NEWMARKET JULY RACECOURSE

 The major difference between the Rowley Mile and the July Course is that, whereas the former is uphill all the way to the line, the latter levels off - almost falling away - after an initial climb. It’s a lovely track, every bit as nice for jockeys as it is for summer racegoers, but, when you’re riding, you have to be on weather-watch, as sometimes there’s a faster strip on the far side, near the hospitality marquees. The long straight means it’s a very fair course, with no pace bias, and it’s ideally suited to class horses.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *