GOODWOOD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Thursday 28 July 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 The Racing Horse offers our unique and insightful Racecourse Template for Goodwood Thursday 28 July 2022. There is a 7-race card containing 3 Handicaps, a Maiden Fillies' Stakes, a Group 3, a Group 2 & a Group 1. The going is expected to be good to firm, good in places.

GOODWOOD FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                  Handicap
2yo   35-93   38%    -6.72    8-20     40%    +7.38
3yo   27-74   36%   -10.89    40-132   30%    -6.33
4yo+  27-51   53%   +13.40    68-170   40%   +46.09
TOTAL 89-218  41%    -4.21    116-322  36%   +47.14

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Goodwood last 5 years     +/-   E
C & M Johnston (15%) 37-280   00%  -88.66   -2%   5
A Balding (15%)	     32-213   15%  -44.04   +0%   5
W Haggas (23%)	     27-125   22%   -0.64   -1%   1
R Beckett (17%)	     18-111   16%  +17.18   -1%   3
R Hannon (12%)	     18-249    7%  -90.00   -5%   5

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Goodwood last 5 years      +/-   R
O Murphy (19%)	 44-241   18%   -15.22      -1%   0
J Crowley (19%)	 25-161   16%   -73.92      -3%   3
W Buick (22%)	 24-121   20%   -22.75      -2%   6
H Bentley (13%)	 23-121   19%   +57.63      +6%   0
T Marquand (14%) 22-181   12%   -28.35      -2%   4

TOP 5 OWNERS at Goodwood last 5 years       +/-   E
Ham Al Maktoum (21%)  18-74   24%  -15.92   +3%   0
Godolphin (24%)       14-93   15%  -42.30   -9%   4
K Abdullah (25%)      10-30   33%  +31.09   +8%   0
Moham A Maktoum (15%) 10-68   15%   -6.16   +0%   0
Shadwell Estate (22%)  7-27   26%   +9.56   +4%   1

HOT TRAINERS 28/06/2022 to 27/07/2022       +/-   E

FIXTURES
Thursday 25 July 2022
Friday 26 July 2022
Saturday 27 July 2022

FAVOURITES: Goodwood is generally and incorrectly regarded as not a good course for favourites given the scrimmaging and trouble in running that occurs there, but that is NOT reflected in our figures over the past 5 years, so nothing to do with the cutaway!

DAY 1: Favourites won 3 of the 8 races for 38% at prices of 6/4, 7/4 and 5/2 returning a +0.75pt profit so in keeping with our original figures.
DAY 2: Favourites won 5 of the 7 races at prices of  11/4, 10/3, 1/6, 10/3 & 5/6 returning a +8.34 profit
TOTAL TO DATE: 8-15 for 53% (+9.09).
It looks tougher for winning favourites tomorrow and 2 winners might be the par figure...

TRAINERS: Leading trainer at the Festival after 2 days is Charlie Appleby (29%) with 2 winners, from his last 12 runners 7 have won for 58%. He has 4 runners tomorrow and 3 of those run in the 1.50.

Interesting Kyprios apart, trainer Aidan O'Brien is not sending a big team to Goodwood this week, just one more runner tomorrow.

JOCKEYS: Hollie Doyle (14%) is 0-10 for the Goodwood Festival but rides NASHWA 3.35 who has been nominated Pacafi status! Interesting to note Tom Marquand (14%) is 0-8 so the husband and wife team 0-18 for this Festival. How ironic the husband and wife ride the first and second favourites in this Group 1 and both desperate to beat each other. Has this ever happened before in racing? We very much doubt it!

William Buick (22%) leads Ryan Moore (18%) 3-2 at the Festival this year and the former looks to have the better set of rides tomorrow to increase his lead?

OWNERS: Godolphin (24%) have 4 runners tomorrow and 3 of those are in the same race, their runners are BLUE TRAIL, NATURAL WORLD & WARREN POINT 1.50 and NEW LONDON 3.00.

Shadwell Estate (22%) have a single entry in WANEES 1.50

BY THE WAY: We enjoyed collecting on the Baaeed/Modern Games CSF and that was the real deal!

BY THE WAY 2: Cieren Fallon (13%) appears to be dropping down the pecking order, goes to Nottingham today for 3 rides and just 1 at Goodwood tomorrow. We believe he is struggling to ride at 8st 4lbs, but not sure that explains things. He rides GOOD MEASURE 2.05 Nottingham today for William Haggas so worth a second look. He's on a small losing run at the moment and will be grumpy if he cannot ride a winner there...

1.50
WARREN POINT (W Buick), NATURAL WORLD (J Doyle) & BLUE TRAIL (F Dettori) trainer Charlie Appleby is 29% with horses racing 7f and up to 10f 

2.25
12/12: At least 2 previous runs that season (100%)
12/12: At least 1 previous win that season (100%)
11/12: Top 3 in the betting (92%)
ROYAL SCOTSMAN (P & O Cole) C&D winner, ran a cracker when third in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, Jim Crowley rides
CHATEAU (A Balding) improving colt with more to offer, William Buick rides

3.00
11/12: At least 3 previous runs that season (92%)
11/12: At least 4 previous runs
10/12: Rated 103 or higher (83%)
10/12: Top 3 in the betting (83%)
NEW LONDON (C Appleby) One time Derby hope, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings and 26% with horses running over 10f, William Buick rides
HOO YA MAI (G Boughey) formerly with A Balding, drops from Group 1 to Group 3, first time tongue strap, Ryan Moore rides

3.35
NASHWA (J & T Gosden) Hollie Doyle rides and told us: "It was lovely to get back on board the daughter of Frankel for my boss Imad Alsagar last week when I rode her in a nice piece of routine work with one other galloping companion on the Cambridge Road in Newmarket

John and Thady Gosden are equally delighted with her and she’s a worthy favourite to win her second Group 1 in receipt of a 9lb weight-for-age allowance from her two older market rivals Lilac Road and Dreamloper. Obviously, the absence of her stable companion Inspiral and Irish Group 1 winner La Petite Coco makes the race less competitive than it would have been, but it’s still a Group 1 and I’m taking nothing for granted.

My husband Tom rides Lilac Road, who deserves to have a crack at a prize like this after winning the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York’s Dante Festival on her previous start in May, but she needs to improve again.

The ground should be perfect for Nashwa, and I have no concerns about her handling the track as she’s very uncomplicated. Hopefully she can go on and supplement her unforgettable win in the Prix de Diane en route to a possible run in the Prix de l’Opera and Breeders’ Cup later in the year."

4.10
FAR SHOT (J & T Gosden) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides
X J RASCAL (G Boughey) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides
PRAIRIE FALCON (M Dods) longest traveller 309 miles, Hollie Doyle rides
FAISAL ROAD (K P De Foy) formerly with J & T Gosden, Jack Mitchell rides

4.45
NAVELLO (G Boughey) on the up, unlucky last two runs, William Buick rides
SWAYZE (W Muir & W Grassick) ran with huge credit in hot sprint at Royal Ascot, before readily accounting for Sir Henry Cotton at Haydock 26 days ago, Rob Havlin rides and 40% on favourites

5.20
SHE'S HOT (P & O Cole) drops from Group 3 to Class 2, first time tongue strap, Jim Crowley rides
BERWICK LAW & MISS DYNAMIC (C & M Johnston) trainers show profit of £36.08 with debutants, Neil Callan & William Buick ride respectively

JASON WEAVER ON GOODWOOD

Goodwood’s stewards are surely among the busiest in Britain, as it’s tricky to ride and it’s easy to run into traffic problems, especially on the round course. The bottom turn claims its share of victims, because the ground there runs away from you, while the bend into the home straight is very sharp. You get congestion on the dogleg, too, as normally a fair few are still in contention at that point. On the sprint course, the quickest way home is in a straight line, which means the middle is usually a good spot.

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