FRANTASTIC 3.50 Newbury at 7/4

 Always Bet Responsibly At BetVictor Handicap (Class 4) 1m2f

 COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-8 for 25%           (10)  
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%             (10)                                 
OR & RPR: 87 & 98                   (10)  
Distance: 1m2f                      (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Frankie Dettori             (10)
National Average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 24%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Youthful King
Alt: Tartan Chief

Royally bred and one time Group 1 entry

Frantastic is very well bred and a full brother to Cracksman but yet to show his true form. He ran in a Derby Group 3 trial at Sandown against Westover, so held in some regard at that point, before given another break of 104 days before lining up again at Sandown in a Class 3 Handicap over 1m2f. He was deemed ready and then made the 5/4 favourite that day, but looked cumbersome after a slow start and then bumped twice up the straight which did not help momentum. He finished third but would have been closer but for the scrimmage.

Drops in class

It looks as though the son of Frankel has been held up and we can expect a fitter Frantastic today. His low mileage means he is totally unexposed and he is taken to enjoy the drop to a Class 4 and run a personal best for a much needed confidence win before restarting his career. John Gosden has now ran the colt twice at Sandown so he should know, but after watching the videos many times it appeared he did not enjoy the course - now this could be nonsense. We compared his action on that course to his win at Newcastle and it looked completely different?

 Right to left-handed to help?

In reference to the above we note Gosden now sends his charge to run at Newbury which is a left-handed galloping track with only slight undulations throughout. Its galloping nature makes it ideal for the big, long-striding type. With a run-in of 5f we think the course will suit exactly! Frankie Dettori goes to Newbury instead of York to ride the colt and that is interesting, and we are expecting him to bounce back to some sort of form. 

Contenders

Youthful King will probably try to make all again here despite being caught late on when third over a furlong further at Goodwood, though he may suffer the same fate here. Tartan Chief was unlucky in running when second at Windsor and is another for the shortlist.

 Timeform

    FRANTASTIC never got chance to fully open up at Sandown last time and, in what should be a more straightforward scenario, he's likely to defy a mark of 87 against some lesser opposition. Youthful King has been in good order and is worthy of respect, while Guilin is certainly not one to be writing off. 

Frantastic traded at a low of 1.62 and Betfair SP of 2.40 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear.

Value

Anything close to 7/4 looks north of perceived value. The timeline of Frantastic shows 9/1 in a Group 3 Derby Trial, then 5/4 favourite in a good Class 3 Handicap and now 13/8 in a Class 4 Handicap against much lesser opposition. If he does not put these away the team are surely going to be disappointed. The time off the course is not expected to be part of the problem given the way the team handled Cracksman.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.