GLENFINNAN 2.10 Yarmouth at 10/11

 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 4) 1m3y

 COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-13 for 31%          (10)
National average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 12%             (10)                                
RPR: 98                             (10)  
Distance: 1m                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Ryan Moore                  (10) 
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 16%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Maasai Mara
Alt: Vaguely Royal

Sets a high standard

Glenfinnan sets a high standard after being narrowly denied at York 27 days ago and he should prove tough to beat if reproducing that level of performance. The 100,000gns purchase took a step forward from his debut, the way he saw it out an indication that tomorrow's longer trip was in his favour, and he'll get further still for all that he's by Harry Angel. He should be able to pick up a maiden or a novice before the end of the campaign, though looks a good prospect for next year.

Drop in class and up in trip to suit

The York race was a Class 2 worth over £41,000 over 7f on good to firm ground, tomorrow is a drop in grade to Class 4 over a mile. Beaten just ½l he is now ridden by Ryan Moore. The 3rd in that race was Hi Royal and he runs in 1.50 Ayr, he would have been a Pacafi but for the good to soft ground he will encounter. Should that one win it would boost the form of our Pacafi even further!

Trainer Form

Andrew Balding has his horses in fine form, 2 of the last 3 have won and yesterday the most recent won at 10/1 at this course. His course strike is down on his national average and we would prefer not to see that, but we have set aside this figure with the jockey booking of Ryan Moore. We had not realised how few rides he had for Balding over the past 5 years but their combination scores 4-25 for 16%. The jockey has big figures at Yarmouth showing 22-85 for 26% (-20.56) and 8% above his national average.

Contenders

Maasai Mara looked green on his debut and can be expected to improve significantly now with that run under his belt and looks the main danger. Of the newcomers, Vaguely Royal represents a leading yard and any sustained market support would make this 2yo all the more interesting.

 Timeform

GLENFINNAN left his debut form well behind despite still showing signs of inexperience when runner-up in the most valuable maiden of the year at York (7f) 4 weeks ago and he sets a high standard. Maasai Mara showed plenty to work on at Newmarket so is feared most, with his stablemate Vaguely Royal making most appeal of the newcomers.

Value

The 10/11 looks to be perceived value, we would not have taken 4/5. 

Glenfinnan traded at a low of 6.00 and Betfair SP of 49.48 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.