PROVERB 1.38 Hamilton at 4/9

EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For horses In Bands C & D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Class 4) 5f7y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-60 for 10%          (10) ←
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 50%             (10)                                
RPR: 87                             (10)  
Distance: 5f+                       (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Kevin Stott                 (10) 
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 17%           (10)           
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Santabella

Ideal opportunity

Proverb (foaled 4 Feb) is a Harry Angel colt who has hit the frame both starts on good to soft ground in 6f novice events this summer, latterly when third at Yarmouth 2 weeks ago. Looks primed to run his best race yet and easily sets the standard. His connects appear to have found him the ideal opportunity to open his account and make the long trip up and back worthwhile.

Optimum conditions?

He got very warm beforehand at Yarmouth last time out and was again too green to himself justice and the consensus was he ought to prove useful when maturing. His dam won at 6f, and he was not stopping in either of his races over that distance and tomorrow steps back in trip to 5f. Is this a negative? We doubt it in this field but would have preferred another 6f race. That said, there are steep gradients into and out of a pronounced hollow just over three furlongs from the winning post, with a severe hill up to the finish and this should help counter the distance differential! The steep run down to the bottom of the dip can cause jockeys to start racing too early and, because it’s a long way home from there, they can be walking from the two to the one pole. There’s very little draw bias in sprint races.

Trainer form

Members will note we have set aside some average trainer form figures for George Boughey. He has run a lot of horses in the past 14 days for 10% and this measures against a national average of 17%. He had a nice Novice winner from a wide draw at Chester on Saturday and one beaten a short head today. We note he has recorded 8 second places in the same time frame and lots of those beaten a nose, short-head and a neck. He remains in form! At Hamilton he shows 3-6 for 50% and encourages the staking further! His 2yo winners on Turf show 43-269 for 16% (-75.25).

Regarding winning numbers jockey Kevin Stott is the fourth best jockey at Hamilton over the past 3 years with 16-82 for 19.51%.

For contextual purposes the main rival is trainer John Quinn, he is currently 1-23 for 4% and 20 runs over 14 days since a winner. At Hamilton he is 9-68 for 13%. His 2yo winners on Turf score 32-361 for just 9% (-104.82)

Contender

Santabella is a Kodiac filly who has an official rating of 69 and that does not look enough to beat the Pacafi. She finished runner-up first 2 starts in 5f novice events back in June, latterly over C&D. Beverley effort in July has to go down as disappointing but she looks the only danger if the short break has a positive effect.

 Timeform

PROVERB has shown fair form in twice hitting the frame in novice events in recent weeks and earns the vote to make it third time lucky for the George Boughey team. Santabella, back from a short break, can emerge as the chief threat.

Value

The 4/9 looks north of perceived value. At 7/2 we can expect some money coming for Santabella but expect are price to be short closer to post-time. We would not lay 4/9 or 2/5.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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